Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

[Quinkana]

It depends on the temperament of the local shogun that will take over, and whether he'll tolerate the existing institutions and framework that have taken root and even blossomed relative to their OTL counterparts.

I definitely think its is possible that the ppl who're put in to controlling the Philippines know what they're getting themselves into and are rather moderate in what they do (considering that Tomoyoshi is a southerner) means that he could easily leave the Philippines to his christian supporters while having the more traditional samurai get land redistributed from former supporters of Tomoshige or the lands in the north alongside Moritora. It really depends on how the situation is handled.

On the other hand Philippine Samurai would be so cool, imagine them running around with kris, garabs and igorot head hunting axes.

I can't help but have this sinking feeling that the brutality of this war OTL's Imjin War, however lucking out with Spain being so weak at this point in time.

Piss-off the occupying Japanese lords and warriors enough and they'll really look down upon the Filipinos the same way the English did towards the Irish. From there - all bets are off since they'll henceforth consider this region as a special basketcase, as opposed to an integral territory. The old, puppetised colonial government? Autonomous and marginalised domains? An increasingly-subjugated food-producing colony like Ireland? Even a Haitian-style plantation? Who knows? It's just that it's very likely that the Japanese will always see the people of the archipelago as something beneath them far into the future.

I defo see the Japanese being able to crush organised resistance with the taking of Manila and not being brutal to the natives for being Christian (considering Tomoyoshi is a Southerner he should be more lenient to Christians anyways) or being dicks to the natives or pissing off the other major players in the region (the Dutch, French and Brits are fine with the Japanese taking the Philippines I think?) so it could be a lot less brutal than the Imijin war.

 

[Quinkana]

If this ATL reaches the late 17th to early 20th centuries, I have some ideas on where this ATL would and could go, depending on what the author is thinking at the moment, unless the author applies the NO-spoiler policy to other people's ideas for this ATL:

Spoiler: My impossible ideas for a possible future of this ATL

• Japan, China, and Korea colonizing Southeast Asia, the Pacific islands, Australia and New Zealand, and the westernmost regions of North America. I can also see Oda Japan becoming the Imperial Japan of this ATL, but without the totalitarian militaristic imperialism that characterized Imperial Japan during World War II.
• No USA because the American Revolution is butterflied away due to the preceding British Empire possibly not coming into existence. Not sure if any Asian or European colony that becomes independent would end up loosely fulfilling the USA's role in international affairs; that would depend on how East Asia reacts to the Enlightenment period. English may not become the globally dominant language.
• Constant intermarrying between the Imperial family and the Oda clan. I'm not sure if that's starting to become a thing yet.
• Several global conflicts in the late 17th to early 19th centuries that would precede a version of World War I. I think that the East Asian powers would fight each other and the European powers for control of colonies around the globe as well as the East Asian powers attacking the homelands of their enemies in Europe. Perhaps maybe we could see Japanese samurai ronin serving as mercenaries and ninjas serving as spies and assassins for the various European powers.
• Increasing Japanese adaptations of Western technologies causing an industrial revolution in East Asia to occur independently of the European Industrial Revolution.
• The Great War (a version of World War I) happening earlier before 1914 and the Second Great War / Greater War happening later after 1939, for I don't see them being butterflied away at all. After the Iberian-Japanese War and related military conflicts, I would like to see Spain becoming Japan's archenemy in this version of the World Wars. In the first Great War, I can see Spain militarily defeated and politically and economically humiliated in a peace treaty by Japan, but Spain WILL NOT become a Nazi Germany, but rather come under a dictator similar to Hannibal of Carthage with elements of Francisco Franco and Emperor Napoleon I of the French. This Spanish dictator will be "the man who hated Japan", much like Hannibal's hatred of Rome. In other words, I can see the conflict between Japan and Spain becoming more like the first two Punic Wars between ancient Rome and ancient Carthage.
• Japan landing the first humans on the Moon.
• If the author concludes the story with an epilogue, then said epilogue should be set in the future rather than the present day.
• BONUS: I would love to see a sequel focusing on a modern Oda Japan getting ISOTed to another ATL!

As this timeline is NOT collaborative, it's really impossible for me to write in someone else's ATL. Second, I'm more attuned to ASB timelines, and I am still currently rewriting my two ISOT screenplay stories.

It's okay to disagree with my ideas, but it's NOT OK to criticize the person making the ideas. Anyway, if you guys have better alternative ideas regarding the future of this ATL for the author, please post them below!

@Ambassador Huntsman, I love your fantastic ATL! It would not be good if you left this permanently unfinished, so I hope you will be able to complete this timeline up to the present or future someday!

I think huntsman wants to continue this tl at about the 17th century, so idk how much this would happen.

I disagree about China being a colonising power though, China is much more likely to stagnate especially if it continues under the Ming. A warlord period or a period where the Europeans/Japanese + Koreans colonise the region is more plausible I think. ofc I'd like to see China permanently divided but its my preference in such tls.

Considering what we've seen I think Japan colonising the West Coast is very possible too due to the fur trade (sea otter fur was the best fur there was) too, and BC and co could grow rice too.

On the industrial revolution I think we'd see Japan copying stuff first before making their own stuff I think, since steam engines only were invented once, but I defo see them picking it up as the industrial revolution picks up steam.

Some ppl have said that the Nine years war was the first world war which weirdly agrees with your point that we'd see bigger and bigger conflicts occur. With parts of Asia being able to advance with the Europeans I see SEA and America being prominent battlefields, but only a few states would have hegemony over those regions until the late 19th/20th century and nationalism becomes a prominent thing again.

tbf I could see only one great war happening as forcing two coalitions to fight isn't inevitable, especially if a few nations have diverging national interests that're forced to work together to prevent annihilation. In fact there's a possibility where its a bunch of proxy wars and the various great powers attempt to court different factions while keeping their armies for each other but not launching said war as they have felt the brunt of war before.

One possibility is the Americas being a warzone especially if North America is a lot more fragmented than otl. Fighting over the Mississippi and the Appalachians is very possible, and I could see the Rockies being fought over bc some European power wanted land from Japanese/independent state developed from a Japanese colony.

I don't see the Spanish being eternal enemies of the Japanese too. If the Spanish lose the Philippines its game over for them for influence over SEA. Philippines is the first stop of their ships from Mexico to China, and if they lose that that trade route would be controlled by the Japanese, making them either have to be subordinate under Japanese rules or lose the trade entirely.

 

[Simeon]

I defo see the Japanese being able to crush organised resistance with the taking of Manila and not being brutal to the natives for being Christian (considering Tomoyoshi is a Southerner he should be more lenient to Christians anyways) or being dicks to the natives or pissing off the other major players in the region (the Dutch, French and Brits are fine with the Japanese taking the Philippines I think?) so it could be a lot less brutal than the Imijin war.

You're being too hopeful. Ruson-no-kuni is a directly-administered military province for one good reason: it is to plug off a potential Spanish reconquest of Northern Luzon at the behest of Catholic collaborators. Its entire existence had been one that is besieged from their vengeful neighbours down south, as well as suppressing the still-smoldering insurgency of hidden Catholics in Pangasinan.

Perhaps, Awari may be distant enough from the shitshow of Pangasinan that they'll be willing to be fair with the newly-subjugated populations further south. The daimyos and their warriors putting down the sporadic rebellions springing from both religion and tax dereliction need not share the same sentiment, especially when they're dedicating their entire lives to subjugating the population of the archipelago. It's more likely for them to see the Filipinos as "uppity Catholics" to be ruled over than people that can be acculturated and intermingled with, let alone integrated.

 

[Quinkana]

You're being too hopeful. Ruson-no-kuni is a directly-administered military province for one good reason: it is to plug off a potential Spanish reconquest of Northern Luzon at the behest of Catholic collaborators. Its entire existence had been one that is besieged from their vengeful neighbours down south, as well as suppressing the still-smoldering insurgency of hidden Catholics in Pangasinan.

Perhaps, Awari may be distant enough from the shitshow of Pangasinan that they'll be willing to be fair with the newly-subjugated populations further south. The daimyos and their warriors putting down the sporadic rebellions springing from both religion and tax dereliction need not share the same sentiment, especially when they're dedicating their entire lives to subjugating the population of the archipelago. It's more likely for them to see the Filipinos as "uppity Catholics" to be ruled over than people that can be acculturated and intermingled with, let alone integrated.

It is not that weird that a good administrator would attempt to make Luzon more governable, and making the Philippines not transport Spanish silver isn't in the interests of any of the ppl involved. After all the Japanese are making a lot of money off the trade too. That would factor in how the Philippines is governed due to it.

There's also the fact that there's a lot of Japanese Christians ittl and there's no way someone like Tomoyoshi who is deeply aware of various problems in the South wouldn't attempt to make it less governable. The Japanese are a lot less monolithic than otl and it should show.

 

[goodol' turan]

You're being too hopeful. Ruson-no-kuni is a directly-administered military province for one good reason: it is to plug off a potential Spanish reconquest of Northern Luzon at the behest of Catholic collaborators. Its entire existence had been one that is besieged from their vengeful neighbours down south, as well as suppressing the still-smoldering insurgency of hidden Catholics in Pangasinan.

Perhaps, Awari may be distant enough from the shitshow of Pangasinan that they'll be willing to be fair with the newly-subjugated populations further south. The daimyos and their warriors putting down the sporadic rebellions springing from both religion and tax dereliction need not share the same sentiment, especially when they're dedicating their entire lives to subjugating the population of the archipelago. It's more likely for them to see the Filipinos as "uppity Catholics" to be ruled over than people that can be acculturated and intermingled with, let alone integrated.

I'm thinking that in TTL, the entire Philippines will be dominated more by Sunni Islam. Would make for an interesting scenario, with Muslims having most of the majority in the Philippines.

 

[Tertius711]

I'm thinking that in TTL, the entire Philippines will be dominated more by Sunni Islam. Would make for an interesting scenario, with Muslims having most of the majority in the Philippines.

I don't see why they would. Islam is pretty incompatible with the Japanese society even more than Christianity was.

 

[Red Angel]

I don't see why they would. Islam is pretty incompatible with the Japanese society even more than Christianity was.

I think he meant the Southern half of the Philippines.

 

[goodol' turan]

I think he meant the Southern half of the Philippines.

No, no, I'm talking about the entirety of the OTL Philippines.

 

[Simeon]

I'm thinking that in TTL, the entire Philippines will be dominated more by Sunni Islam. Would make for an interesting scenario, with Muslims having most of the majority in the Philippines.

Catholicism is already well-established enough that Pangasinan is still smoldering in insurgency over it.

Meanwhile — there's also a whole paragraph in colonial administration reforms that finally integrated the local elite into it and even into the regular clergy as well.

Accepting the inevitable defeat, Spain looked for other opportunities to make up for their years of losses. Seeing the internal strife Japan was experiencing, they soon found a potential target in Japanese Luzon. Manila, in fact, had wisely prepared not only for a possible Japanese offensive towards the heart of the Spanish Philippines but also for a possible comeback. After the Spanish loss in the Iberian-Japanese War, it became clear that Japan was no second-rate power and in fact could field large armies and navies that matched Europe in sophistication, tactics, and technology. The new governor general, Sebastian Hurtado de Corcuera, initiated administrative and military reforms that sought to better integrate Filipinos in the governance of the Philippines and make them more loyal to the colonial government in Manila. In particular, he established several new companies composed of native Filipinos and Sangleys [7] that nearly matched Spanish conquistadors in training and prowess while being much cheaper to maintain. Through close relations with Siam, Corcuera also managed to employ Siamese and Chinese mercenaries into Spanish service. Under him and his successors, natives were brought into the civil service and even the ecclesiastical orders of the Catholic Church in the Philippines. Therefore, by 1659, the Spanish Philippines was a more cohesive and unified colony less reliant on direct aid from Madrid and had become a suitable staging point for a reconquest of lost lands.

Yeah – no. Coupled with the honestly traumatic defeats of the Peninsula and their own against Japan and Maguindanao, the country is filled to the brim with Blas Piñars now. They will put up a respectable effort independent from Spain's.

I think he meant the Southern half of the Philippines.

The colonial forces defended them from the Moro pirates and slavers whenever they can, even if those were quite inconsistent. Catholicism have given them an additional anchor to justify their own hatred of them as heathens to boot. So bad and infamous were those raids and battles of the old that my Kiniray-a grandfather — who is long and far-removed from those days to boot — is still prejudiced against Muslims today.

Hence — I can say that they won't convert to Islam even if hell freezes over.

No, no, I'm talking about the entirety of the OTL Philippines.

Meanwhile — Manila is the seat of an Archbishop with several churches to boot. The circumstances of this timeline being the way they are — many of the people living within the city and the greater region are also Blas Piñars now, let alone the ones in the actual government and the clergy!

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

If this ATL reaches the late 17th to early 20th centuries, I have some ideas on where this ATL would and could go, depending on what the author is thinking at the moment, unless the author applies the NO-spoiler policy to other people's ideas for this ATL:

Spoiler: My impossible ideas for a possible future of this ATL

• Japan, China, and Korea colonizing Southeast Asia, the Pacific islands, Australia and New Zealand, and the westernmost regions of North America. I can also see Oda Japan becoming the Imperial Japan of this ATL, but without the totalitarian militaristic imperialism that characterized Imperial Japan during World War II.
• No USA because the American Revolution is butterflied away due to the preceding British Empire possibly not coming into existence. Not sure if any Asian or European colony that becomes independent would end up loosely fulfilling the USA's role in international affairs; that would depend on how East Asia reacts to the Enlightenment period. English may not become the globally dominant language.
• Constant intermarrying between the Imperial family and the Oda clan. I'm not sure if that's starting to become a thing yet.
• Several global conflicts in the late 17th to early 19th centuries that would precede a version of World War I. I think that the East Asian powers would fight each other and the European powers for control of colonies around the globe as well as the East Asian powers attacking the homelands of their enemies in Europe. Perhaps maybe we could see Japanese samurai ronin serving as mercenaries and ninjas serving as spies and assassins for the various European powers.
• Increasing Japanese adaptations of Western technologies causing an industrial revolution in East Asia to occur independently of the European Industrial Revolution.
• The Great War (a version of World War I) happening earlier before 1914 and the Second Great War / Greater War happening later after 1939, for I don't see them being butterflied away at all. After the Iberian-Japanese War and related military conflicts, I would like to see Spain becoming Japan's archenemy in this version of the World Wars. In the first Great War, I can see Spain militarily defeated and politically and economically humiliated in a peace treaty by Japan, but Spain WILL NOT become a Nazi Germany, but rather come under a dictator similar to Hannibal of Carthage with elements of Francisco Franco and Emperor Napoleon I of the French. This Spanish dictator will be "the man who hated Japan", much like Hannibal's hatred of Rome. In other words, I can see the conflict between Japan and Spain becoming more like the first two Punic Wars between ancient Rome and ancient Carthage.
• Japan landing the first humans on the Moon.
• If the author concludes the story with an epilogue, then said epilogue should be set in the future rather than the present day.
• BONUS: I would love to see a sequel focusing on a modern Oda Japan getting ISOTed to another ATL!

As this timeline is NOT collaborative, it's really impossible for me to write in someone else's ATL. Second, I'm more attuned to ASB timelines, and I am still currently rewriting my two ISOT screenplay stories.

It's okay to disagree with my ideas, but it's NOT OK to criticize the person making the ideas. Anyway, if you guys have better alternative ideas regarding the future of this ATL for the author, please post them below!

@Ambassador Huntsman, I love your fantastic ATL! It would not be good if you left this permanently unfinished, so I hope you will be able to complete this timeline up to the present or future someday!

I appreciate your very extensive input!! I definitely have a strict policy when it comes to spoilers but I read every reply and sometimes quietly find inspiration from the discussions. I will say that the Oda and imperial families have started to and will continue to intermarry. For example, Oda Nobutsugu's wife was Princess Akiko (昭子内親王), the fourth daughter of retired Emperor Go-Mizunoo.

I think huntsman wants to continue this tl at about the 17th century, so idk how much this would happen.

The TL will extend into the 18th century at the bare minimum.

 

[Herohunter]

I'm thinking that in TTL, the entire Philippines will be dominated more by Sunni Islam. Would make for an interesting scenario, with Muslims having most of the majority in the Philippines.

I don't see why they would. Islam is pretty incompatible with the Japanese society even more than Christianity was.

Catholicism is already well-established enough that Pangasinan is still smoldering in insurgency over it.

Meanwhile — there's also a whole paragraph in colonial administration reforms that finally integrated the local elite into it and even into the regular clergy as well.

Yeah – no. Coupled with the honestly traumatic defeats of the Peninsula and their own against Japan and Maguindanao, the country is filled to the brim with Blas Piñars now. They *will* put up a respectable effort independent from Spain's.

The colonial forces defended them from the Moro pirates and slavers whenever they can, even if it's inconsistent. Catholicism have given them an additional anchor to justify their own hatred of them as slavers to boot. So bad were those raids and battles of the old that my Kiniray-a grandfather — that's long and far-removed from those days to boot — is still prejudiced against Muslims today.

Hence — I can say that they won't convert to Islam even if hell freezes over.

Meanwhile — Manila is the seat of an Archbishop with several churches to boot. The circumstances of this timeline being the way they are — many of the people living within are also Blas Piñars now, let alone the ones in the actual government and the clergy!

when the Japanese first set up shop in northern Luzon they more or less banned the catholic faith, when that happened some joined the Yamato Faith, while others converted to islam. I think goodol' turan thinks there will be a growth of islam in the areas held by japan.

 

[Tertius711]

when the Japanese first set up shop in northern Luzon they more or less banned the catholic faith, when that happened some joined the Yamato Faith, while others converted to islam. I think goodol' turan thinks there will be a growth of islam in the areas held by japan.

They’ll ban Islam too, it’s even worse to them than Catholicism. Islam is just straight up not compatible at all with a lot of elements in Japanese society and religion and culture.

 

[goodol' turan]

They’ll ban Islam too, it’s even worse to them than Catholicism. Islam is just straight up not compatible at all with a lot of elements in Japanese society and religion and culture.

What? What makes you say that?

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

They’ll ban Islam too, it’s even worse to them than Catholicism. Islam is just straight up not compatible at all with a lot of elements in Japanese society and religion and culture.

What? What makes you say that?

I’d be interested in knowing why that would be too. Especially as in South-East Asia historically there’s been a lot of syncretism in Islam - various local deities etc. are still venerated…

 

[Herohunter]

They’ll ban Islam too, it’s even worse to them than Catholicism. Islam is just straight up not compatible at all with a lot of elements in Japanese society and religion and culture.

what because they are "pagans"? Ming, Qing, and republican China got along with there muslim population. also it seems like the Japanese are getting cozy with the Ottoman and Mughals. The Muslims did not get along with Christians despite both being "peoples of the book". The Muslims of the Luzon and Visayas will remember the catholic oppression and that the Japanese are the more reliable rulers of the religiously diverse but still catholic majority population. If japan starts annexing the muslim islands of South East Asia this dynamic might change.

 

[CountofDooku]

They’ll ban Islam too, it’s even worse to them than Catholicism. Islam is just straight up not compatible at all with a lot of elements in Japanese society and religion and culture.

Why would they? The fact that Islam and to a similar extent even Christianity are not having the same success like for example in modern India is a result of Japanese Culture and a blent of Buddhism/ Shinto for sure, still elements of Christianity have influenced several local shrines and tempels quit a bit and clearly can be felt and I don't belive Islam would be any different, especially not if they have good relations with Ottomans and Mughals, or interact with Muslims regularly as traders, or their own colonial power in Southeast Asia later on.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

I don't think that @Ambassador Huntsman planned to end the ATL in the 17th century, as I remember that he had plans to go beyond to at least the 18th and 19th centuries, but it would take several years to write his ATL towards reaching that point in time.

I don't see China being permanently divided into warring states and colonized by foreign powers, as I see a new reformist dynasty replacing the Ming eventually as more plausible. Alternatively, the Ming could come under a reformist and competently effective emperor now that the Qing dynasty is butterflied away. In short, at least in this ATL, there is some good in the Ming and its successor, as I think they can do better in their foreign policy if they're willing to do so.

I don't see a version of the League of Nations (the predecessor to the United Nations) being formed in this ATL. I can see a version of the Concert of Europe being formed, but it won't be effective in preventing another world war. I still don't think that wars after the first Great War will be butterflied away, as there will always be people in the losing nations seeking power to get violent revenge against their enemies.

Related to my point above, I don't see the Spanish being reasonable, instead being very arrogant and prejudiced, in regards to powerful non-Catholic, non-Christian civilizations like Oda Japan in this ATL. Therefore, as the Spanish Empire eventually declines and falls as in OTL, instead of Spain being humbled by the loss of its colonies, there will be people in Spain seeking power to get violent revenge against their enemies for the fall of the Spanish Empire, with Oda Japan being one of their targets.

I don't see Spain and Japan as having friendly relations, ever. So the only way for future Spanish-Japanese wars to NOT occur is by creating conditions in international relations that are favorable to both the Japanese and the Spanish. That means no humiliating peace treaties imposed on the losing side!

EDIT: Since @Ambassador Huntsman made it clear that he will end the ATL in the 18th century, this makes our debate a moot point.

I won't end the TL necessarily in the 18th century but it is a plausible endpoint. However I may choose to go even further into the 19th century but there's no guarantee. However, I doubt I would even attempt going into modern times aside from an epilogue because at that point, the PoD would've shifted the world so radically it would be too complicated to explain properly.

when the Japanese first set up shop in northern Luzon they more or less banned the catholic faith, when that happened some joined the Yamato Faith, while others converted to islam. I think goodol' turan thinks there will be a growth of islam in the areas held by japan.

Catholicism was specifically banned because exiled Spanish missionaries plotted with Catholic daimyo to encourage Kirishitans to rise up against Azuchi, so Islam wouldn't be banned unless there was some plot to make Japan a sultanate or something or the Oda doctrine of religious tolerance goes out the window.

 

[Herohunter]

Catholicism was specifically banned because exiled Spanish missionaries plotted with Catholic daimyo to encourage Kirishitans to rise up against Azuchi, so Islam wouldn't be banned unless there was some plot to make Japan a sultanate or something or the Oda doctrine of religious tolerance goes out the window.

or the Muslims start or join a large scale separatist rebellion.

 

[Tertius711]

What? What makes you say that?

I’d be interested in knowing why that would be too. Especially as in South-East Asia historically there’s been a lot of syncretism in Islam - various local deities etc. are still venerated…

what because they are "pagans"? Ming, Qing, and republican China got along with there muslim population. also it seems like the Japanese are getting cozy with the Ottoman and Mughals. The Muslims did not get along with Christians despite both being "peoples of the book". The Muslims of the Luzon and Visayas will remember the catholic oppression and that the Japanese are the more reliable rulers of the religiously diverse but still catholic majority population. If japan starts annexing the muslim islands of South East Asia this dynamic might change.

Why would they? The fact that Islam and to a similar extent even Christianity are not having the same success like for example in modern India is a result of Japanese Culture and a blent of Buddhism/ Shinto for sure, still elements of Christianity have influenced several local shrines and tempels quit a bit and clearly can be felt and I don't belive Islam would be any different, especially not if they have good relations with Ottomans and Mughals, or interact with Muslims regularly as traders, or their own colonial power in Southeast Asia later on.

Hmm. It all depends on how orthodox the Muslims in the region are I suppose. Idk I might be a bit biased given I live in the region in the modern day so I sometimes forget that it was very different back then. (The idea of modern day Japan ruling over modern day Malaysia and Indonesia with all the culture clash wherein is extremely bizarre 😅 )

I suppose that Muslims that have a similar mindset to China’s Hui could probably fit into Japanese society well but then Muslims much like Christians are not a monolith so I expect that there would be some groups that give the Japanese problems and others that integrate much more easily.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

or the Muslims start or join a large scale separatist rebellion.

That too.