Belated Happy New Year everyone!
I'm sure you all were expecting me to have the next chapter out this past weekend(I was too), but between traveling, spending time with family, and celebrating the holidays, I haven't had as much time to write as I'd like these past two weeks. That being said, I have managed to do some work and I should have the next part ready in the next day or two.
Great update as always Earl!
My bet is on the Russian front ending at Varna most likely thus taking enough territory to ensure a free Bulgaria most likely, as well as crushing any straggler garrisons. The farthest they could go realistically in my opinion (based on previous comments) is establishing a siege line at Adrianopolis. I feel like if Adrianople falls, that would definitely make the rest of Europe start to become warier against the Russian Bear, but then again it wasn't the Russ who began this war...
Thank you very much! I won't spoil where the Russians end up - the next chapter will do that for me, but they are definitely making the rest of Europe worry.
The title of the next chapter is Coalition, which is a very ominous title for the Russians going forward. I think they might have gotten a bit to greedy and it is going to cause them a lot of diplomatic issues.
Great to get the update Earl Marshall, it was just as high quality as always. Can’t wait for the next one
Thank you very much!
If Russia wins this war, they're gonna have a really really big target painted on their back. Those European Nations would not want to see another Napoleonic-like Empire rising and threatening the entirety of Europe, after all even if they don't want to invade Europe.
Indeed. Britain spent the entirety of the 19th Century and the first few years of the 20th Century trying to prevent a single power from dominating the continent. ITTL they've had less success as Russia is now poised to emerge as a real threat to the established order.
Maybe realpolitic is more likely to see the creation of Poland than any strength of arms.
Yeah I could honestly see even the Prussians getting on board with this to a degree. Not actively agreeing with it but kinda just accepting the work of others. Maybe even making a deal with their Poles. Give the revolutionaries weapons after they’re escorted to the Russian border and simultaneously turning the Germanization up to 11 in Prussian Poland for those that stick around.
Alternatively the rest of Europe could target Prussia as well if they stand by the Russians and ally with them in a Polish intervention type situation. Regardless I expect north Eastern Europe to be a lot more politically unstable ITTL
A Polish state creates more problems than its worth for most of the participants. The real game is that if Russia really does go for domination of the Balkans let alone for Constantinople, the other powers are going to intervene to bailout the Ottomans.
There is valid recognition that the Russians have won on the battlefield, and so there will be consequences. But no power be it France or Germany would consider Russian domination of South Eastern Europe a desirable outcome, or even palpable.
Interestingly enough, both Palmerston and Napoleon III did consider liberating Congress Poland as part of their terms in OTL. Sadly, it wasn't a viable option as doing so would antagonize both Prussia and Austria, whose help they would need in order to force such terms upon Russia. Even then, it would require a far larger commitment to the war effort that neither the British or French were willing to provide. ITTL the British only have to worry about upsetting Prussia, who could be brought on board over their growing concerns of Russian expansionism, but a victorious Russia makes all this moot.
Oops, sounds like someone has found out about their province's taxes being embezzled and their French cousin is very much, 'imperially' pissed off.
At this point, I'd say if Russia tries to overplay its hand, France stepping in would make the dominoes fall, with Hungary quickly following suit and Sweden-Norway closer to make the jump at last. At the same time, I see Nicholas is a bit late on his appointment with Death.
Also, I can't wait to see how the Persian and Indian wars turn out. With Russia more or less victorious in the Balkans, we pretty much get in advance the result of the OTL war of 1877-1878 (just by analogy) with the bonus of a humbled Britain.
And that happens at a time the scramble for China is about to open, which in my view is going to be so much fun to read in this TL about. Even after the defeat in Crimea, Russian annexation of Amur and Ussuri territories was quite an event, and such a good geostrategical hand, it's to wonder if they can do even better in the Far East. And with its humiliating loss to the Russians, there is to see how British attitude towards the Qing will change.
Besides the Russians in the Amur basin, the French too were bound to make inroads in Indochina with longstanding interests in Annam (dating back to the 18th century and the establishment of the Nguyen dynasty with French help), though that happened on the back of the Spanish (French conquests in Cochinchina wouldn't have been possible without Spanish help from the Philippines it seems), and through the way of missionaries, French cultural influence in China and Korea was ever growing (lot of history going back to Louis XIV and the Jesuits).
So, with these two stepping up their commitment in East Asia, it's difficult to see the British not doing something, and also difficult to see them doing something after the last Russo-Turkish war. And I'm not even speaking of the Americans of Commodore Perry stepping into the fray in Japan, and the Taiping rebellion. It will be very interesting to see how you're going to write all this out
And a last thing, what about Alaska?
IOTL, Alexander II was already a bit dubious about the merits of selling it to the Americans, Gorchakov was not very pressed to risk possibly antagonizing the British over this and finance minister von Reutern wasn't convinced either of the sale's potential to alleviate their financial troubles after the Crimean war. In fact, it transpires that the sale was largely driven by the relentless lobbying effort by Baron de Stoeckl and Secretary Seward, and nearly never happened; de Stoeckl had already tried to sell it before the civil war, and after it, Seward was pretty much alone with Sumner in pursuing the fantasies of a 'frozen wilderness'. I myself researched a TL into which the sale never happened just by having Seward removed from the equation.
In a longer term, I'm of the opinion that due to the financial sinkhole that the colony was, the Russians would have eventually abolished the monopoly of the Russian American Company on the model of what the British had precisely done in neighboring British Columbia with the monopoly of the Hudson Bay Company, following up on the OTL Golovin Report, a report that seemingly went a long way criticizing the RAC mismanagement of the colony's potential resources (I've not yet put my hand on the report itself, but accounts of it gave me this impression), strangling its development.
Let's just say that Franz Joseph isn't very happy with his Russian uncle right now.
In OTL, Tsar Nicholas died from Pneumonia in early March 1855. While not confirmed, it is believed that he intentionally let his health collapse by not wearing proper winter clothing, refusing medical attention, and working/fasting constantly as a result of his guilt over provoking the Crimean War. For all his faults, Nicholas did adored his soldiers and was truly gutted by their suffering in the war. Suffice to say, the better Russian performance in the war alleviates his guilty conscious somewhat, prolonging his life just a little longer.
The 2nd Anglo-Persian War will be covered in the next chapter, but I'm leaving the Sepoy Mutiny to a separate update which I'll release once this current war is finished. I'll also cover China, Japan and the rest of East Asia in the near future as well, since butterflies have started reaching that part of the world.
Hopefully, what I have in mind for Alaska is interesting enough for all of you.
My prediction
1: Independent Serbia and Montenegro with both gaining modest lands
2: De-facto independent Bulgaria that still has to pay lip service to the Porte (with a border including OTL Eastern Rumelia)
3: Ottomans lose all influence in the Danubian principalities
4: Caucasus border moved to the frontlines as they are when the ceasefire is signed
5: Significant war reparations from the Ottomans for damage caused to the Russian Caucasus and a formal recognition of Russian sovereignty in the region.
6: Time Bound ban on Ottoman ships from going in the Black Sea
7: No independent Poland. It would require full on coalition war against Russia to achieve which is not in the cards for both narrative reasons (it would significantly strengthen the Ottomans and thus hurt Greece), and in universe ones (Prussia won’t be on board, Austria would get invaded by Italy if they tried, France doesn’t see a need as long as Russia doesn’t get to greedy and Britain already tried and failed).
Interesting proposals. While I won't spoil the exact terms, I will say that some of these predictions will be on the final peace deal and some of the others will be part of Russia's first set of demands.
This war will definitely be a dark blemish on Britain's reputation for years to come.
They convinced the Ottoman Empire to start this war with Russia, based largely on false promises from Britain of support from the other Powers of Europe. At best these were overly ambitious projections that were unlikely to happen. At worst, they were bold faced lies. As a result, the Ottomans paid the price in treasure, lives, and territory because of the British.
To their credit, the British did give the Ottomans with nearly 30 millions of Pounds in loans, they've provided over 80,000 Minie Rifles, they've sent over 100,000 soldiers to fight alongside the Turks, and they've dispatched almost all of their fleets to fight in the war. Still, its not a good look for London as the Turks still bore the brunt of the war's costs.
Aside from money, there isn't anything the Russians can realistically take from the British in this war. Outside of Alaska, they don't share any borders (yet) and they have no means of enforcing military restrictions on the British. They won't be able to occupy their territory or loot their cities, nor will they be raping their women or enslaving their children. As a result, most of the Allies' concessions will be coming from the Ottoman Empire, which will be forced to give up quite a lot. You are definitely right, though that Britain gaining Alaska either by choice or not, would definitely turn the Turks against them even more than they already have.
The Russians are definitely the victors in this war, but it has been a very costly war in both lives and coin. I'd say that the real winners of this war are the states that haven't gotten involved like Greece and France.
In the end, the Ottomans, the British, and the Russians will all need to enact reforms after this war, some more than others, but whether they choose to do so or not remains to be seen, however.
Wonderful update ! The end is no surprise, now the tsar knows his enemies are weakened, he will push on the advantage
Thank you very much!
I wonder how this impacts New Zealand. A British Army collapsing and the Indian Mutiny really diverts any attention from NZ but that being said, the land wars were not really a thing in the 1850s, as that was more just settler and Maori consolidation, respectively. Things started heating up at the end of the decade as it became clearer confrontation was likely/necessary over land (depending on one's perspective), which on the British side meant that the governor started building up Imperial forces.
ITTL it seems that most of the small garrison would have left for India or the Middle East before the build up got underway. This would undermine the Governor and the settler government's confidence in pushing things with Maori. So perhaps less escalation?
In terms of settlement, the big pre Gold Rushes numbers started to creep up by the end of the 1850s - getting up to 10k per year by 1859. This might carry on, or it might drop off a little as a lot of this was sponsored. Is the money there either from the Provincial governments or Britain? Maybe not.
But the big driver, the Gold Rushes, could happen at anytime really, instead of early 1860s.
So I think in the short term, this probably helps North Island Maori to retain their position a bit longer and perhaps that helps them mitigate or avoid the Land Wars. The downside is that it might just delay things or even aggravate. As it is too late to stop British settlement of the South Island and once gold is discovered, the South Island population and wealth will sky rocket and then it will become increasingly hard to stop the wider settler government of NZ from wanting to encroach. I suspect also there will be a lot of British soldiers wanting to move out from UK and perhaps also some government distraction?
The big What If is India though, as the NZ and Australian colonial economies were tightly interwoven into the Indian colonial economy. If India falls then that helps undercut the former's economic development. If the war carries on, it probably helps? If just because Britain will be buying loads of supplies (food, uniforms, horses, tack etc).
The British garrison in New Zealand wasn't drawn down at all so there shouldn't be any significant changes there.
You know there seems like there’s two logical political beliefs that the British People might adopt post war. The first is isolationism but I can’t see such a movement gaining much steam considering how many and how far spread their holdings across the globe. But it is possible that they just turtle up with what they already have and ignore the world for a bit.
The second and more likely option IMO is the Empire swings even more militaristic than OTL. The problem wasn’t with the intervention but with the lack of Manpower. And the solution is something similar to the foreign legion and the compromise they made with the Irish but on a more “native” level. Chinese peasants recruited from Hong Kong, Indian Sepoys going abroad with their permission once that issue gets cleared up, a foreign legion with recruits from every continent. I can see them becoming quite aggressive and intervention happy when they get back to full strength.
Two other things that strike me. The Ottomans can’t pay back the British, but the British will demand recompense. I wonder if that will come in the form of land the British use to power protect against a French Egypt. Cyprus and/or Anatolian land might be possible.
The second is I can’t see a beaten Britain being okay giving up any land, even something as minor as the mosquito coast. I know you don’t wanna get bogged down in the America’s which I support. But this seems like a small butterfly that won’t have any other effect besides it being a minor increase in tension between the US and the UK.
Edit: I suppose I should also add that the British publics political view might stay relatively stable as far as foreign policy goes. I just don’t see it as likely after this big of an embarrassment is all.
Isolationism is certainly a possibility, but I'd don't think losing this war will have that effect on the British. The Russians really won't be able to take much of anything from the British as they lack means of enforcing any terms upon them. Without a navy to challenge the British Royal Navy, the Russians can't occupy British territory and they can't hurt the British economy, at least directly. The best they can do is threaten India, but right now there are several hostile hordes, a couple mountain ranges, and hundreds of miles of desolate land between Russia and British India so the threat of a Russian invasion of India is really unlikely. At worst, they'll have to pay some reparations to Russia.
The one thing they will definitely lose is prestige. They went into this war believing they were the greatest power in the world, they'll come out of it humiliated and bloodied. More than likely, the British will blame their defeat on the Ottomans being incompetent (at least in Anatolia), the Indians rebelling at the worst possible time, and the lack of support from the other Powers of Europe (France especially). They'll also take a hard look at their Army which is desperately in need of reform. Although they did perform as good as they could given the circumstances, there is definitely room for improvement. So greater militarism by the British is definitely a possibility too.
The Ottomans are definitely in a tough spot financially. Not counting their pre-war debts, they've now accrued over 30 million Pounds in loans to the British and while the interest on those wartime loans aren't terribly high, it is still more than the Porte can afford right now.
I wonder if Russia will get recognition for control over Galicia in return for not taking Constantinople or bits of Bulgaria.
It is also interesting to note that the Polish question has become simpler with Austria out of the question. I almost see a natural alliance between Polish nationalism and the Hapsburgs. In a Austro-Prussian War I could see the Hapsburgs not only retaking Silesia but also a rump Posen under a Hapsburg prince in perpetration for an independent Hapsburg Poland.
The Polish Question has definitely been simplified, but it is still an issue needing to be resolved. While I won't spoil what the final results are, I will say that the geopolitics of the region will be different after this war.
I mean, they can, but Britain sure as hell can't really get it back. They didn't exactly cover themselves in glory here, what with them selling off chunks of the Ottomans without even asking them, barely contributing any troops, said troops being inept and led by idiots....
TO say nothing about that Sepoy mutiny. They might want repayment, but the Ottomans can retort that maybe they should've actually tried fighting the war, and not focused on making the Ottomans do it for them.
The Ottomans won't want to provoke Britain to much though, they'll still need a reliable ally no matter their their feelings about this war and Britain is still their best bet. Austria's dead, Hungary is no where near sufficient, France is to focused on the Rhine after TTL's Franco-Prussian War, and ditto for Germany but add a highly decentralized and unstable mess of a government to boot. If Britain demands Cyprus as debt repayment and threatens to leave the Ottomans to their fate if they refuse (or outright seize the island as the RN could do so easily) the Porte would have no choice but acquiesce.
They are both in a difficult spot right now. The Ottomans will be quite weak and vulnerable after this war and could easily fall into the Russian camp if Britain pushes too hard in their search for recompense. Similarly, if the Ottomans refuse to pay back their loans then they would risk deterring other nations from providing loans to the Ottomans in the future.
Looks like a decisive Russian victory in the Crimean/Great Eurasian War is apparent, though I will agree with others that given the title of the next chapter I presume diplomatic pressure from France and Austria will keep the Russians reined in. The question is: what will St. Petersburg push for?
Full freedom from Ottoman suzerainty for the Romanian principalities seems likely, though I am unfamiliar enough with Romanian history to not be sure how this would impact it; same applies to the Serbs. I can also see the Russians enforcing some autonomy for northern Bulgarian regions, though the extent of that is debatable for several reasons:
- Putting a Bulgarian entity in control of the Dobrudja would secure the Danube Estuary under a Russian proxy while denying it to the Ottomans, but would likely irritate the Romanians. (The reverse goes for placing it under Romanian control.)
- Any Bulgarian sovereignty near the Aegean and in Macedonia is likely out of the question, lest the Russians alienate their covert proxies/allies in the Greeks (and turn them firmly to the British camp).
- Threatening Ottoman Thrace too much will be seen as politically unacceptable by both the Ottomans themselves, the U.K., and whatever other powers intervene in the interest of propping up the Empire against Russia.
Eastern Anatolia is most interesting in my eyes. Do the Russians keep the front lines where they are, keeping the Erzincan Valley and the northern shore of Lake Van but abandoning the port at Trebizond? Or do they offer some concessions inland in exchange for a very nice warm-water port on the southern Black Sea, leaving some of the Armenians in their occupation zone out to dry but taking in more Greeks and a territory easier to administer than the partisan-ridden highlands of eastern Anatolia?
I feel there are arguments to be made for both, and it's possible the Russians could offer concessions in the West (which the Western powers and Ottomans probably care more about, and the Russians have under a greater threat) to make or keep more gains in the East at the negotiating table. Then you have the oncoming alt-Hamidian Massacres, which will color those decisions even more strongly.
It will also be interesting seeing how the Persians and Indian rebels fare in the oncoming peace/post-peace period, and assuming the French will be one of the parties applying pressure on the Russians, what they demand in exchange for helping stop the war. Recognition of Persian conquests? Expanded holdings in southern India (possibly in exchange for helping quell the revolt there)? The Indian rebels seem doomed in the long run, but it is possible in my eyes that the Persians manage to make good on their opportunism.
I won't get too in depth here as it could spoil my future plans, but a Russian victory here would effectively end any illusions of Ottoman suzerainty over the Danubian Principalities. That would likely lead to increased Russian influence over the Romanians, which may result in any number of things, from a proxy being appointed Prince of Romania to Russian garrisons being stationed in the country, to annexations of their territory.
An independent, or autonomous Bulgaria is certainly a possibility, but if it gets too large it could alienate the Romanian principalities and Greece. A Russian proxy in control of Dobruja also runs the risk of antagonizing the Austrians and Hungarians as a lot their commerce runs through the Danube.
The border in Anatolia will be interesting. The most value region of Eastern Anatolia is the Pontic coast, with Trebizond being the most valuable, but as of now, the Russians don't have Trebizond. So if they wanted to take it in the peace treaty, they'd need to give up a lot elsewhere which they may not be inclined to do. Meanwhile, they've occupied a lot of territory to the south around Erzurum and Erzincan, but outside of the large Armenian population in the region and the general defensiveness of the area, there isn't much value to be had in taking this land as they lack natural resources and are really only good for agriculture and pastoralism.
The Persians have managed to occupy all of Afghanistan by this point and have done some minor raiding into Northern India. Apart from that, not much is really happening on that front. I'll address the Rebellion in India in its own chapter.
For once I want to read a Russian Victory in the Crimean War, and this has come close even if it's being set up like as a "Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory". Hope the Russians win though.
Its not so much snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but snatching a minor victory out of the jaws of a greater victory. Russia will still win the war, barring all the other states of Europe declaring war on Russia all at once (which is completely ASB), there isn't really any way for them to lose at this point.
I wonder how much more bodies can Russia throw into the fight. I know they have large reserves but at some point they eventually be running low. There only winning because of sheer number at this point.
The gatling gun would be really great in this situation for the british and Ottoman.
A decade too early for that I think. But let's wait to see how Earl Marshall is going to write his version of the American Civil war ^^.
Despite fielding a standing army of 1 million soldiers, the Russians only had around 200,000 trained reservists available around the time of the OTL Crimean War. Suffice to say, they've managed to burn through all of these reservists and more ITTL. Overall, they've suffered around 400,000 casualties between May 1854 and July 1856, most of which were due to diseases such as cholera.
If you think the 1860's will be crazy technologically, just wait till we get to the early 1900's!
Hello everybody, and Happy new year!! I'm sorry coz I've been very busy IRL last months for even posting comments.
My congrats to Earl Marshall for this amazing TL that has totally hooked me from the begining. The more it developes it's becoming even more fascinating and complex. Great research job, man !!!
I'm intrigued about the upcoming Peace Conference and ALL the ATL butterflies this (pyrrhic?) Russian victory will cause.
1. TTL Kingdom of Hungary is a landlocked middle power especially interested in keeping Russian influence far away from Danube.....I guess Magyars will enthusiasticaly join the anti Russian camp
2. Although Caucasus theatre has been a secondary one and I agree the huge territorial gains could be a useful bargaining chip, TTL Russian conquests comprise large swaths of Ottoman Armenia. Even with minor corrections, Russians will be the masters of Trabzon-Persia trade routes, no matter if they finaly get the port city. And the British grip on central Asia is being put in jeopardy just at this moment.
3. Will this Russian expansion in Ottoman Armenia and subsequent forceful population displacements solve (at least to a great extent) the Armenian Question for the remaning of 19th Century?.
4. I guess Nappy II will play an "honest broker" ( à la Bismarck ) role in the upcoming peace talks. Maybe the French will get some rewards in form of territorial concessions in Christian Syria: one of the obvious consequences of this Great Eurasian War will be reprisals on the Christian minority within the Ottoman Empire, e.g Mount Lebanon, so voilà the legitimating cause
Welcome back Zealot!
1. The Hungarians are in the Anti-Russian camp by necessity. After fighting against each other in the 1848 Hungarian War of Independence (Austria asked Russia for help), relations between the two have only gotten worse, what with Hungary supporting Polish partisans in the 8 years since. If Russia gains control of both banks of the Danube (either directly or through its proxies), the Hungarian economy would basically be at the mercy of the Russian Government, something which is completely unacceptable to Buda.
2. I completely agree, the territory Russia has occupied along the Caucasus/Anatolian front is really a bargaining chip for more valuable territories elsewhere. Outside of Trabzon, there really isn't anything the Russians want in Eastern Anatolia. All they would be getting is more Armenians, a bunch of farmland, and good grazing grounds for pastoralists. Now thats not to say that the Russians wouldn't take territory here, they most certainly will as it would secure their border and weaken the Ottomans, but they are more likely to take less land here in return for more land somewhere else, like the Balkans. Even if they don't get Trabzon directly, they can still gain great influence over the Trabzon trade route by taking cities like Agri, Erzurum, and Horasan which sit along the road to Tabriz.
3. Maybe.
4. Of course the Eaglet will get involved, he is a Bonaparte after all!
Hello EarlMarshall, When will be published the next update ?
fyi it considered rude to ask author this also it usually 2 weeks plus so hopefully soon
The guy is just asking. If the author doesn't want to answer is his call.
true but it guranted in every thread on this site that someone will eventully jump on them and tell them it super rude(while being rude hopefully I wasn't). So I am telling them so that in future they can avoid that.
Sorry taking so long to reply, I should have the next chapter out in the next day or two.
