How is the English public going to like a rainbow coalition propped up by the SNP and Plaid Cymru?
The Fourth Lectern - A 2010 Election TL
- Thread starter AndyC
- Start date
Thande
Donor
Brown mentions an AV referendum. I thought the Labour manifesto had them going straight to AV without public consultation, and after the election they offered the Lib Dems that plus a referendum on whether to keep AV or go to STV? Of course it might be different in TTL due to the early POD.
Thande
Donor
Also, like the others said, you capture Brown pretty well--I don't know what his actual manner of talking in private would be like, but his motivations seem dead on. In retrospect, in his last years he came across as sort of a Captain Ahab figure with the spectre of Thatcherism as his "whale".
Do we know if AV got in the Labour manifesto before or after Cleggmania?
Ah, that's the image I was thinking of!
AndyC
Donor
Thanks. We'll see
Thanks. I'm trying to come from the vantage point that every one of the four leaders genuinely thinks he's in it to improve the lot of the UK.
Good point - I've got to bring in the public response at some point very soon.
We'll see - but for the key supply and confidence votes, they don't have to rely upon them. Just to get support on an issue-by-issue basis.
Nah - the manifesto had "To ensure that every MP is supported by the majority of their constituents voting at each election, we will hold a referendum on introducing the Alternative Vote for elections to the House of Commons.". The "AV straightaway" offer was part of their abortive negotiations with the Lib Dems after the election in OTL (and there were strong hints that Brown wouldn't be able to deliver it in any case)
Thanks - it's always a concern when writing about public figures with whom some on the board may even have personal experience.
Labour's OTL 2010 manifesto:
"Referenda, held on the same day, for moving to the Alternative Vote for elections to the House of Commons and to a democratic and accountable Second Chamber."
And I'd like to agree with the praise of your portrayal of Brown. I thought it was really well done; I always liked to think that in spite of a lot of the stuff you heard about him, he did have the best intentions at heart, he was just a little misguided when it came to doing stuff about them. I genuinely think he probably would've been an alright PM if it weren't for the whole thing with Blair.
EDIT: Dammit, ninjad by AndyC.
"Referenda, held on the same day, for moving to the Alternative Vote for elections to the House of Commons and to a democratic and accountable Second Chamber."
And I'd like to agree with the praise of your portrayal of Brown. I thought it was really well done; I always liked to think that in spite of a lot of the stuff you heard about him, he did have the best intentions at heart, he was just a little misguided when it came to doing stuff about them. I genuinely think he probably would've been an alright PM if it weren't for the whole thing with Blair.
EDIT: Dammit, ninjad by AndyC.
I suspect that if Brown tries to go for a deal like this, he's going to get knifed by the realists in the Labour party.
Also, by this point, hadn't Labour budgeted for pretty substantial cuts anyway? The main differenence to OTL to this point would be in the mood music, ad so I strongly suspect that the UK economy would actually be better, as confidence would be higher. The tories have engaged in a large amount of talking down the economy to give cover for their reform strategy.
Given that quantative easing will continue, then there's no real chance of there being a problem with debt servicing, and I strongly doubt there would be a downgrade, the British debt structure means that the problems aren't that acute given it's term.
Also, by this point, hadn't Labour budgeted for pretty substantial cuts anyway? The main differenence to OTL to this point would be in the mood music, ad so I strongly suspect that the UK economy would actually be better, as confidence would be higher. The tories have engaged in a large amount of talking down the economy to give cover for their reform strategy.
Given that quantative easing will continue, then there's no real chance of there being a problem with debt servicing, and I strongly doubt there would be a downgrade, the British debt structure means that the problems aren't that acute given it's term.
Not just the public response - there was a throwaway line in there about a ratings downgrade, but I would have thought there would be real blood on the trading floor in the financial markets by now - and it will get really ugly if Balls tries to present "a full steam ahead" on spending emergency budget. If the government refuses to cut spending and the markets drive interest rates on government debt into the stratosphere then Balls is going to have to raise taxes hard just to cover the increase in debt repayment costs. Cameron and Osborne should have the time of their lives opposing that - and Huhne will have a nightmare trying to make the Orange Bookers stick to the abstention deal rather than voting it down.
An AV referendum with Brown and Huhne leading the "Yes" campaign with a background of tax increases and financial chaos? If you wanted a scenario in which the OTL result looked close I think you've just got it...
Why? Seriously? In the ATL in the last six months he's turned around what looked to be a hopeless position into one where Labour is easily the largest party in a hung parliament and has secured a deal whereby they can run a stable minority administration, and doesn't even have to give the LibDems the cabinet posts he promised. In such circumstances, the Labour party would be more likely to see him as a hero, not as a liability. (And yes, you and I know it happened despite Brown, not because of him. The Brownites won't however, and they'll be shouting their version of history from the rooftops and gleefully kneecapping their enemies.)
No. Darling had made noises about "cuts worse than Thatcher" but no actual, specific reductions in spending had been budgeted for - and Darling is about to be replaced by Balls who has always refused to even admit that much. This government will keep finding excuses not to reduce spending until the IMF is hammering down the doors to Downing Street. I think Andy got this part of Brown dead on in his post.
I think that the majority of the Labour party will be well aware that an early election coul be a disaster, and that it is impossible to enter an alliance with the SNP - remeber that Brown is Scottish Labour, and they despise the Nats as much as they do the Tories.
Labour needs the Lib Dems for a coalition, although it can limp on without them enough to hol dout for a good deal. If the price of that is no Gordon, I think they'll just bin him. Even his closest allies seem to have recognised he wasn't a sutiable leader by the end.
Perversly, the only way he can survive is if he makes a deal with the Lib Dems, as in a minority government he has to be able to command the total loyalty of his own party, and even his allies are fully ware that enough Labour MPs personally hate him enough to make government impossible. Pretty much every single one of him can hold him to ransom, and so if the Brownites want to remain in charge, they have to throw him over the side to show willing. I'm pretty sure that the two Eds are ruthless enough to make that judgement.
He's pretty safe then, if you think that's the threat,, as the IMF is never going to be hammering on the door. The British financial probelms are chronic, not acute.
Labour had published spending outlines for 2010-2011 in their 2010 budget, wich containing deficit reduction plans and spending cut targets.
I think they'll find it difficult to pull back from them.
AndyC
Donor
15th May 2010
BBC News
“… the pound dipped below parity with the Euro yesterday before the close of trading as the markets came to terms with the downgrading of the UK’s credit rating. A spokesman from BNP Paribas believes that the current panic in the markets is a temporary measure and once things have calmed down, the FTSE and the pound will both bounce back.
‘What you’ve got to bear in mind is that AA+ is actually a strong rating. It’s the same as that for Belgium, which is hardly a byword for risk and credit chaos. The ratings themselves don’t actually have any direct power – the interest rates charged by the markets on Government borrowing vary widely within those ratings and it’s not uncommon for a country with a triple-A rating to pay higher rates than one with a lower rating. The issue is that it’s become a talismanic thing for many investors, and it’s a cliché that the markets don’t react – they overreact’
In other news, British Airways is taking legal action to try to stop the latest strike by its cabin crew. Business correspondent …”
Chris Huhne’s home in Clapham
“Well, I don’t see that we’ve got many choices left”, said Clegg. “If they won’t budge on the economics, or give us anything else, and we desperately need at least a few months of stability, we’ve got to sign up to it. Right?”
Cable nodded, glumly. “I agree with Nick. It’s a crying shame – I really thought that Labour would give us a lot more to work with. It’s just down to Brown – when he’s gone, they’ll probably be more willing to listen to reality”
“There’s no chance that they’ll let us supply anything for the Emergency Budget, David?”
David Laws shrugged. “Not while Ed Balls has anything to say about it. Only about half of their team give any impression of wanting the negotiations to work out at all. The rest seem to be looking more for problems than solutions”
“Evan?” asked Huhne.
“I agree”, said Evan Harris. “They’re not looking to compromise at all. Balls definitely wants to go it alone. I think Ed Milliband is dubious as well. Harman seems to have no hope and is going through the motions”
Huhne shook his head.
Laws chipped in. “Oh – by the way, I found out what triggered the downgrading”
“Oh?” asked Huhne.
“I’ve still got a few contacts in the business, and one of them knows someone who works at Fitch”, said Laws
“Fitch – they’re the ones who downgraded us first, right?” asked Cable
“Yeah. Turns out someone at Fitch was talking ‘off the record’ with Charlie Whelan”, said Laws.
“Whelan – isn’t he out of the business of spin-doctoring now?”, asked Clegg.
“Yes and no”, replied Laws. He’s still got all his contacts with Balls and company, and has no hesitation in using them. Apparently he told his contact at Fitch that Brown had found a way to stay on, Balls was going to be Chancellor, and he was going to pull back a long way from the level of cuts that Darling had promised”
“Why the hell would he do that?” gasped Cable.
“Search me. My only thoughts are that either he wanted to get the news out there early to manage expectations …” started Laws.
“Dangerous game”, mused Huhne.
“… or call their bluff on the repeated warnings of a downgrade, or drive them to downgrade us ‘for no reason’ before the lack of cuts became public knowledge …” Laws continued.
“Even more dangerous”, murmured Clegg.
“And stupid”, said Cable.
“… or it was just a cockup – Whelan boasting about still having links to power”, finished Laws. “And then Moody’s realised that Fitch had inside knowledge and – I think – had a contact in Fitch that supplied them with the same knowledge. Tie that to the slight level of paranoia they’ve all got because of not rating correctly before the crash, and a downgrade happens bloody quickly. Then S&P don’t want to be left out on a limb on their own”
Cable chipped in. “Plus Fitch would probably be pissed off because they’ve repeatedly warned that we could be downgraded if we didn’t take the deficit seriously, so they almost had to. Stupid move. Just plain stupid”.
“Well, there’s not much we can do about that”, said Huhne. “What I want to work on is making sure that we don’t get burned by public anger for propping up Brown’s regime. The tabloids are going insane”
“Going insane? Doesn’t that imply sanity to start with?” murmured Harris.
“The quality press aren’t much better, either. Look at this: ‘GERRYMANDER!’ is the headline from the Times. I’d understand if it was the Torygraph, but the Times is usually a bit better”, said Huhne.
“Still a Murdoch paper, though”, said Cable.
“The Indy and Guardian are ripping into us for not agreeing a Coalition with Brown. Polly Toynbee has ‘reliable sources’ telling her that we’re being unreasonable. Us!”, said Huhne.
“Maybe we should have got to her first?”, suggested Laws.
“The Sun, Mail and Express are up in arms about the fact that Brown could survive. The only reason they haven’t used the Gerrymander headline is ‘cause their readers can’t cope with more than two syllables – three at the outside. They’re coming up with all sorts of contorted rationales against PR. The Mail keeps going on about postal vote fraud. The Sun rabbits on and on about boundaries and Scotland. The Express is simply incoherent with rage. The Mirror is downright smug” said Huhne glumly. “If we prop him up, we could get the toxicity rubbing off on us very quickly. There was the ‘Vote Yellow get Brown’ theme – we prop him up, we just endorse that”
“What choice do we have? I agree with Nick”, said Laws.
“What about a new election when it runs out?”, asked Huhne.
Laws shrugged. “Well, we’re pretty much broke, but so’s Labour. The Tories still have some in their war chest and UKIP have had the vast majority of their deposits returned, so they’re far better off than usual at this stage.”
“But if UKIP and the Tories are mostly focussed on poaching from each other … ?” said Cable, encouragingly.
“I’ve been speaking with Mark Pack and the stats gurus”, said Harris. “Firstly – UKIP really did nick votes from everyone, but it’s true that the main losers were the Tories. The question is whether that will remain true next time – and whether there’s any more for them to lose. The anti-EU sentiment is obviously a main driver for them …”
“No shit”, muttered Clegg.
“… but that’s not just a Tory thing. In the South West, for example, it hits us. In the North, it hits Labour. The social policies are a mix of libertarian and reactionary and can hit anyone. Probably us less than the other two, though. The ‘a plague on both your houses’ vote has been ours for a long time, so that hurts us disproportionately. Localised support structures are good for us, though – we’ve built them up over a long time and no-one can hold a candle to us on ‘pavement politics’ ”, continued Harris.
Huhne narrowed his eyes. “So … what’s the upshot?”
“The long and short of it is that we reckon the local campaign will be crucial. Incumbency and targeting, as well. UKIP totally failed in targeting last time and had only one incumbent – even this time, they’ll have only three. There’s a decent chance that if UKIP’s vote holds up, we’ll be the least affected. The worst affected is likely to be the Labour vote, actually”, said Harris.
“The Labour vote?” said Cable, surprised. “Not the Tory vote?”
“The Tories have got far more money for campaigning and a bunch of new MPs building up incumbency. Those are a double whammy – loss of the personal vote of the old MP plus personal vote from the new one. Plus the fact that the Tories have had to funnel more resources into their safer seats over the past few elections, because that’s where the battle was. There are loads of Labour safe seats which haven’t seen a real fight in a very long time – and UKIP can threaten those in ways the Tories never could. Add to that the fact that the low-hanging fruit from the Tory vote has probably all been picked.”, explained Harris.
There was a pause as the men digested that. Huhne pushed back from the table.
“So, in summary: for the country to get a little financial stability, we really, really have to prop up Brown for a few months, but we want to do it in such a way that we’ll have the least blame for it”, said Huhne.
There were reluctant nods from around the table.
“When it all falls down and there’s a new election, we’ll have a hard fight with minimal resources, but we expect that Labour will have it worse”, he continued.
“Especially if they degenerate into infighting”, added Clegg”
“Indeed. The Tories would probably do better, yes?”, said Huhne.
Harris and Law both nodded. “We might even end up in a kingmaker position even if we lose a few seats, which would give us much more negotiating power next time round – especially if Brown departs the scene”, added Harris.
“Well, it seems as though there’s not much left to actually decide”, summarised Huhne. “We have to prop them up for those six months in the deal on the table, but by abstention rather than positive votes – and we highlight every time we help to defeat them on areas outside of confidence or supply. We come up with the next campaign as soon as we can and push a handful of simple lines every time a prominent Lib Dem gets interviewed. Focus on local politics again, and mainly on holding what we have”
Harris nodded ruefully. “It was way too close in my seat last time – we sent far too many people to attack Oxford East and were short on defence”
“Well, we all learn from that, okay?”, said Huhne. “We’ll have to square the Federal Executive, of course, as well as the MPs – it definitely counts as ‘a substantial proposal which could affect the party's independence of political action’ - but with an agreement as minimal as this, I don’t foresee any issues there. Is there anything else useful we can do right now?”
There was silence, with head shakes and shrugs.
“In that case, gentlemen, let’s get this over with and let the Government form”
BBC News
“… the pound dipped below parity with the Euro yesterday before the close of trading as the markets came to terms with the downgrading of the UK’s credit rating. A spokesman from BNP Paribas believes that the current panic in the markets is a temporary measure and once things have calmed down, the FTSE and the pound will both bounce back.
‘What you’ve got to bear in mind is that AA+ is actually a strong rating. It’s the same as that for Belgium, which is hardly a byword for risk and credit chaos. The ratings themselves don’t actually have any direct power – the interest rates charged by the markets on Government borrowing vary widely within those ratings and it’s not uncommon for a country with a triple-A rating to pay higher rates than one with a lower rating. The issue is that it’s become a talismanic thing for many investors, and it’s a cliché that the markets don’t react – they overreact’
In other news, British Airways is taking legal action to try to stop the latest strike by its cabin crew. Business correspondent …”
Chris Huhne’s home in Clapham
“Well, I don’t see that we’ve got many choices left”, said Clegg. “If they won’t budge on the economics, or give us anything else, and we desperately need at least a few months of stability, we’ve got to sign up to it. Right?”
Cable nodded, glumly. “I agree with Nick. It’s a crying shame – I really thought that Labour would give us a lot more to work with. It’s just down to Brown – when he’s gone, they’ll probably be more willing to listen to reality”
“There’s no chance that they’ll let us supply anything for the Emergency Budget, David?”
David Laws shrugged. “Not while Ed Balls has anything to say about it. Only about half of their team give any impression of wanting the negotiations to work out at all. The rest seem to be looking more for problems than solutions”
“Evan?” asked Huhne.
“I agree”, said Evan Harris. “They’re not looking to compromise at all. Balls definitely wants to go it alone. I think Ed Milliband is dubious as well. Harman seems to have no hope and is going through the motions”
Huhne shook his head.
Laws chipped in. “Oh – by the way, I found out what triggered the downgrading”
“Oh?” asked Huhne.
“I’ve still got a few contacts in the business, and one of them knows someone who works at Fitch”, said Laws
“Fitch – they’re the ones who downgraded us first, right?” asked Cable
“Yeah. Turns out someone at Fitch was talking ‘off the record’ with Charlie Whelan”, said Laws.
“Whelan – isn’t he out of the business of spin-doctoring now?”, asked Clegg.
“Yes and no”, replied Laws. He’s still got all his contacts with Balls and company, and has no hesitation in using them. Apparently he told his contact at Fitch that Brown had found a way to stay on, Balls was going to be Chancellor, and he was going to pull back a long way from the level of cuts that Darling had promised”
“Why the hell would he do that?” gasped Cable.
“Search me. My only thoughts are that either he wanted to get the news out there early to manage expectations …” started Laws.
“Dangerous game”, mused Huhne.
“… or call their bluff on the repeated warnings of a downgrade, or drive them to downgrade us ‘for no reason’ before the lack of cuts became public knowledge …” Laws continued.
“Even more dangerous”, murmured Clegg.
“And stupid”, said Cable.
“… or it was just a cockup – Whelan boasting about still having links to power”, finished Laws. “And then Moody’s realised that Fitch had inside knowledge and – I think – had a contact in Fitch that supplied them with the same knowledge. Tie that to the slight level of paranoia they’ve all got because of not rating correctly before the crash, and a downgrade happens bloody quickly. Then S&P don’t want to be left out on a limb on their own”
Cable chipped in. “Plus Fitch would probably be pissed off because they’ve repeatedly warned that we could be downgraded if we didn’t take the deficit seriously, so they almost had to. Stupid move. Just plain stupid”.
“Well, there’s not much we can do about that”, said Huhne. “What I want to work on is making sure that we don’t get burned by public anger for propping up Brown’s regime. The tabloids are going insane”
“Going insane? Doesn’t that imply sanity to start with?” murmured Harris.
“The quality press aren’t much better, either. Look at this: ‘GERRYMANDER!’ is the headline from the Times. I’d understand if it was the Torygraph, but the Times is usually a bit better”, said Huhne.
“Still a Murdoch paper, though”, said Cable.
“The Indy and Guardian are ripping into us for not agreeing a Coalition with Brown. Polly Toynbee has ‘reliable sources’ telling her that we’re being unreasonable. Us!”, said Huhne.
“Maybe we should have got to her first?”, suggested Laws.
“The Sun, Mail and Express are up in arms about the fact that Brown could survive. The only reason they haven’t used the Gerrymander headline is ‘cause their readers can’t cope with more than two syllables – three at the outside. They’re coming up with all sorts of contorted rationales against PR. The Mail keeps going on about postal vote fraud. The Sun rabbits on and on about boundaries and Scotland. The Express is simply incoherent with rage. The Mirror is downright smug” said Huhne glumly. “If we prop him up, we could get the toxicity rubbing off on us very quickly. There was the ‘Vote Yellow get Brown’ theme – we prop him up, we just endorse that”
“What choice do we have? I agree with Nick”, said Laws.
“What about a new election when it runs out?”, asked Huhne.
Laws shrugged. “Well, we’re pretty much broke, but so’s Labour. The Tories still have some in their war chest and UKIP have had the vast majority of their deposits returned, so they’re far better off than usual at this stage.”
“But if UKIP and the Tories are mostly focussed on poaching from each other … ?” said Cable, encouragingly.
“I’ve been speaking with Mark Pack and the stats gurus”, said Harris. “Firstly – UKIP really did nick votes from everyone, but it’s true that the main losers were the Tories. The question is whether that will remain true next time – and whether there’s any more for them to lose. The anti-EU sentiment is obviously a main driver for them …”
“No shit”, muttered Clegg.
“… but that’s not just a Tory thing. In the South West, for example, it hits us. In the North, it hits Labour. The social policies are a mix of libertarian and reactionary and can hit anyone. Probably us less than the other two, though. The ‘a plague on both your houses’ vote has been ours for a long time, so that hurts us disproportionately. Localised support structures are good for us, though – we’ve built them up over a long time and no-one can hold a candle to us on ‘pavement politics’ ”, continued Harris.
Huhne narrowed his eyes. “So … what’s the upshot?”
“The long and short of it is that we reckon the local campaign will be crucial. Incumbency and targeting, as well. UKIP totally failed in targeting last time and had only one incumbent – even this time, they’ll have only three. There’s a decent chance that if UKIP’s vote holds up, we’ll be the least affected. The worst affected is likely to be the Labour vote, actually”, said Harris.
“The Labour vote?” said Cable, surprised. “Not the Tory vote?”
“The Tories have got far more money for campaigning and a bunch of new MPs building up incumbency. Those are a double whammy – loss of the personal vote of the old MP plus personal vote from the new one. Plus the fact that the Tories have had to funnel more resources into their safer seats over the past few elections, because that’s where the battle was. There are loads of Labour safe seats which haven’t seen a real fight in a very long time – and UKIP can threaten those in ways the Tories never could. Add to that the fact that the low-hanging fruit from the Tory vote has probably all been picked.”, explained Harris.
There was a pause as the men digested that. Huhne pushed back from the table.
“So, in summary: for the country to get a little financial stability, we really, really have to prop up Brown for a few months, but we want to do it in such a way that we’ll have the least blame for it”, said Huhne.
There were reluctant nods from around the table.
“When it all falls down and there’s a new election, we’ll have a hard fight with minimal resources, but we expect that Labour will have it worse”, he continued.
“Especially if they degenerate into infighting”, added Clegg”
“Indeed. The Tories would probably do better, yes?”, said Huhne.
Harris and Law both nodded. “We might even end up in a kingmaker position even if we lose a few seats, which would give us much more negotiating power next time round – especially if Brown departs the scene”, added Harris.
“Well, it seems as though there’s not much left to actually decide”, summarised Huhne. “We have to prop them up for those six months in the deal on the table, but by abstention rather than positive votes – and we highlight every time we help to defeat them on areas outside of confidence or supply. We come up with the next campaign as soon as we can and push a handful of simple lines every time a prominent Lib Dem gets interviewed. Focus on local politics again, and mainly on holding what we have”
Harris nodded ruefully. “It was way too close in my seat last time – we sent far too many people to attack Oxford East and were short on defence”
“Well, we all learn from that, okay?”, said Huhne. “We’ll have to square the Federal Executive, of course, as well as the MPs – it definitely counts as ‘a substantial proposal which could affect the party's independence of political action’ - but with an agreement as minimal as this, I don’t foresee any issues there. Is there anything else useful we can do right now?”
There was silence, with head shakes and shrugs.
“In that case, gentlemen, let’s get this over with and let the Government form”
So Lab-LibDem supply and confidence that may not last long, while Cameron nicks popular UKIP and LibDem platforms?
I see a Tory landslide.
I see a Tory landslide.
Hehe
I see a Tory-Libdem coalition again but can't work out if the Tories getting more seats TTL means more wrt OTL thus lessening LibDem influence (such as it is
) or less wrt OTL. Remember that the LibDems have good local representation and ITL more socialist voters will see them as better than the Tories or UKIP.Does look like the politicians will be warmer towards AV as a way to minimise swing seats.
Thande
Donor
I like the "I agree with Nick" allusion. Good point about Labour's depleted war chest as well. The Lib Dems here seem to be a bit more wise about realising they could become the fall guys for Brown than there were in OTL for the Tories. Still I suppose it was more obvious that Brown was toxic at the time.