Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[Aristomenes]

Nice update and clever recapping of the power struggle between Britain and Russia.
The population in Greece will want to declare war against the Ottoman Empire but the King and the Government will be clever enough to understand this is not feasible . So, if the King plays his cards properly, he can gain the Ionian islands as a compensation for not entering the war, plus some lucrative trade concessions from the Ottoman Empire (and perhaps an understanding that no Greeks will be harmed in the Ottoman Empire).
Besides this, if the Greek ships are accepted as neutral by the fighting parties, Greece will gain a significant trade share, as no British ships will be able to trade in Russian Black Sea ports and no Russian ships will be able to pass the Straits.

 

[Nagisaki]

Besides this, if the Greek ships are accepted as neutral by the fighting parties, Greece will gain a significant trade share, as no British ships will be able to trade in Russian Black Sea ports and no Russian ships will be able to pass the Straits.

That is, until some (Ottoman, British, whichever) commander gets overzealous and attacks a Greek ship, causing the Greeks to enter the war in the final days, which is what pushes it to negotiated conclusion.

 

[Flosgon78]

Wonderful update Earl !!!!

 

[Wolttaire]

Yah glad to see this back, and that was a killer update

 

[Asriellian]

It depends on how you look at it. Some of the Tanzimat reforms have had more success ITTL and the Sublime Porte has been preparing for this war for several years now. Russia is also still recovering from the Great Polish Revolt, which only ended 2 years earlier. However, France not being an active participant in this war is a massive loss for the Ottomans ITTL. They will get some other allies to help make up for the lack of France, but overall the situation is definitely a net gain for Russia compared to OTL.


Thank you very much, I'm glad you enjoyed it!


You've been reading my notes again, haven't you Dan? Without spoiling too much, the outcome of this war will be quite different from OTL.

You tease! Great update btw, got me all excited for the alt-crimean war

 

[DanMcCollum]

You've been reading my notes again, haven't you Dan? Without spoiling too much, the outcome of this war will be quite different from OTL.

I have come from .... the FUUUUUUTTTTUUUURRRE

 

[V-J]

I agree that Greece should stay neutral, no benefit in getting directly involved in this clusterfuck. Play off both sides and line the old pockets, nyuk nyuk.

 

[Implied]

Great read, as always, just a couple of nitpicks; for one thing, what happens to Bukovina? The Austrians seized it from Moldavia in 1775 on the basis that they needed the area to connect to East Galicia, but Russia wouldn't have the same problem and they're "friends" with the Romanians - could even garner some goodwill by returning the region to them, in fact. Also,

By 1850, the British had secured nearly a third of all trade in the Black Sea as Anatolia became one of Britain’s most export markets, behind only the Netherlands and Germany.

This development would lead many prominent politicians in the British government to conclude that the conquest of the Kazakh Khanate was a just the first step to a Russian invasion of India.

Might want to revisit those sentences

 

[Earl Marshal]

Nice update and clever recapping of the power struggle between Britain and Russia.
The population in Greece will want to declare war against the Ottoman Empire but the King and the Government will be clever enough to understand this is not feasible . So, if the King plays his cards properly, he can gain the Ionian islands as a compensation for not entering the war, plus some lucrative trade concessions from the Ottoman Empire (and perhaps an understanding that no Greeks will be harmed in the Ottoman Empire).
Besides this, if the Greek ships are accepted as neutral by the fighting parties, Greece will gain a significant trade share, as no British ships will be able to trade in Russian Black Sea ports and no Russian ships will be able to pass the Straits.

That is, until some (Ottoman, British, whichever) commander gets overzealous and attacks a Greek ship, causing the Greeks to enter the war in the final days, which is what pushes it to negotiated conclusion.

While I doubt they will be able to openly trade with Russia given the high probability of a British/Ottoman blockade, I do think there will be a reasonably large number of Greek smugglers active in the Black Sea who openly defy this blockade. There is actually some precedent for this in OTL as in the Napoleonic Wars, Greek merchants frequently broke Britain's blockade of France to great effect, many great shipping magnates in early 19th Century Greece had their roots in blockade running. More than likely, there will be some tension on both sides, but unless someone does something particularly heinous to the other, the Greeks should be fine with a little war profiteering.

Wonderful update Earl !!!!

Yah glad to see this back, and that was a killer update

You tease! Great update btw, got me all excited for the alt-crimean war

Thank you all, I'm glad you enjoyed it!

I have come from .... the FUUUUUUTTTTUUUURRRE

[QUOnyukTE="V-J, post: 20643013, member: 4469"]

I agree that Greece should stay neutral, no benefit in getting directly involved in this clusterfuck. Play off both sides and line the old pockets, nyuk nyuk.
[/QUOTE]
The price of their neutrality will be quite steep, nyuk nyuk nyuk.

Great read, as always, just a couple of nitpicks; for one thing, what happens to Bukovina? The Austrians seized it from Moldavia in 1775 on the basis that they needed the area to connect to East Galicia, but Russia wouldn't have the same problem and they're "friends" with the Romanians - could even garner some goodwill by returning the region to them, in fact. Also,

Might want to revisit those sentences

Bukovina was occupied by Russia along with Galicia-Lodomeria.

How did I miss those?!? Anyway, they've been fixed, thanks for the heads up.

 

[Bloodmage]

The price of their neutrality will be quite steep, nyuk nyuk nyuk.

Given that they will gain more land after 1870 I assume they will gain the ionian islands and probably thessaly, given that while it has good agriculture it is plagued by diseases,the other most likely territory will be epirus, I cannot see the ottoman allowing greece makedonia since thesaloniki was an influential and profitable city in the ottoman empire ,thougth perhaps the dodecanese have a chance

 

[Flosgon78]

When will be published the next update ?

 

[Earl Marshal]

Given that they will gain more land after 1870 I assume they will gain the ionian islands and probably thessaly, given that while it has good agriculture it is plagued by diseases,the other most likely territory will be epirus, I cannot see the ottoman allowing greece makedonia since thesaloniki was an influential and profitable city in the ottoman empire ,thougth perhaps the dodecanese have a chance

The Greek Government's initial demands for peace will be quite high, likely including Thessaly, Epirus and the Aegean Islands. Obviously they won't get all of this, but part of any good negotiations involves two parties starting from opposite ends of a spectrum and working towards a happy medium. Depending on how the war goes for the Ottomans, the Greeks may get more territory or they may get less. In the end, they'll likely walk away with some additional territory, but not much in the grand scheme of things.

When will be published the next update ?

I'd like to say its ready now, but it will probably be out sometime this week.

 

[Flosgon78]

The Greek Government's initial demands for peace will be quite high, likely including Thessaly, Epirus and the Aegean Islands. Obviously they won't get all of this, but part of any good negotiations involves two parties starting from opposite ends of a spectrum and working towards a happy medium. Depending on how the war goes for the Ottomans, the Greeks may get more territory or they may get less. In the end, they'll likely walk away with some additional territory, but not much in the grand scheme of things.


I'd like to say its ready now, but it will probably be out sometime this week.

Oh don't worry take your time, it was to know because I love reading your updates

 

[formion]

Fellas, I would like to share an interesting paper on greek agriculture. The author, dr Socrates Petmezas has written a lot about greek economic history

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAGegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw3C16OVj79igFMzZANaq7Ev

[/URL]

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sokratis_Petmezas

The Greek Government's initial demands for peace will be quite high, likely including Thessaly, Epirus and the Aegean Islands.

Of these, I think the Ottomans would consider the Aegean islands as more important. Their economic value is nothing to write home about, but they control the Straits. Epirus has the lowlest economic value ofnall the mentioned regions. Thessaly was more valuable than Epirus, with large estates belonging to a turkish elite and worked by greek sharecroppers. On the other side, Thessaly was not well integrated with the trade networks inside the empire: Volos, the chief port of the region , was mostly developed after its annexation to Greece.

 

[Lascaris]

Fellas, I would like to share an interesting paper on greek agriculture. The author, dr Socrates Petmezas has written a lot about greek economic history

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAGegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw3C16OVj79igFMzZANaq7Ev

[/URL]

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sokratis_Petmezas

Of these, I think the Ottomans would consider the Aegean islands as more important. Their economic value is nothing to write home about, but they control the Straits. Epirus has the lowlest economic value ofnall the mentioned regions. Thessaly was more valuable than Epirus, with large estates belonging to a turkish elite and worked by greek sharecroppers. On the other side, Thessaly was not well integrated with the trade networks inside the empire: Volos, the chief port of the region , was mostly developed after its annexation to Greece.

Given the altered circumstances ie Greek control of both Crete Chios and Samos, the Dodecanese seem a logical target with no strategic impact to the defence of the straits. So does Lesvos I think. Now the islands in the mouth of the straits, Lemons, Imbros, Tenedos and Samothrace are very unlikely short of war. As mentioned Cyprus makes also an obvious target one that already had a revolt in 1840. Then Cyprus could well develop into TTL Crete with repeated revolts to join Greece till it finally manages to do so.

 

[formion]

@Lascaris , you are right! I forgot about the Dodecanese. They have little strategic value compared to either the northeast Aegean or Cyprus.

Interesting fact: the major industry of the Dodecanese islands was sponge fishing. I have a phd thesis -unfortunately in greek- that states there were 380 sponge fishing boats in 1854 in the Dodecanese islands. If you add the sponge boats from Hydra, Spetses, Aigina, Ermioni and Paros from the Kingdom of Greece, the fishing fleet could be well over 500 boats. It was certainly the most profitable greek fishing industry at the time. A number of influential shipping magnates owned sponge fishing fleets.

The main fishing grounds were in Tripolitania but mostly Cyrenaica. Every year the boats would be filled with divers, ladden with large quantities of hardtack and sail across the Mediterranean to their fishing grounds. So, greek instead of italian Dodecanese, may very well lead to an increased interest in Cyrenaica.

@Lascaris , were any other greek economic interests in Cyrenaica at the time?

 

[Lascaris]

@Lascaris , you are right! I forgot about the Dodecanese. They have little strategic value compared to either the northeast Aegean or Cyprus.

Interesting fact: the major industry of the Dodecanese islands was sponge fishing. I have a phd thesis -unfortunately in greek- that states there were 380 sponge fishing boats in 1854 in the Dodecanese islands. If you add the sponge boats from Hydra, Spetses, Aigina, Ermioni and Paros from the Kingdom of Greece, the fishing fleet could be well over 500 boats. It was certainly the most profitable greek fishing industry at the time. A number of influential shipping magnates owned sponge fishing fleets.

The main fishing grounds were in Tripolitania but mostly Cyrenaica. Every year the boats would be filled with divers, ladden with large quantities of hardtack and sail across the Mediterranean to their fishing grounds. So, greek instead of italian Dodecanese, may very well lead to an increased interest in Cyrenaica.

@Lascaris , were any other greek economic interests in Cyrenaica at the time?

None that I can really think off other than sponge fishing, which itself was significant of course, Cyrenaica and Libya in general were not what you'd call the most developed part of the Ottoman empire at the time.

 

[emperor joe]

Speaking of the Dodecanese..what was the number of inhabitants it this time??

 

[emperor joe]

Also speaking of cyprus, while the possibility of cypriots revolting constantly is a real,the reality is, when the suez canal is opened,cyprus would be of paramount interest to the British how will like to see the island under their control and not under any foreign power,even a friendly and a allied power like greece.. however with the increased unrest of the population the British would choose one of two ways of dealing with this problem..1 try to sever the connection of the greek population to greece by enforcing an English education on the populace (not that hard since for the most part the cypriots are illiterate with one school in Nicosia) or give the cypriots autonomy within the empire with no possibility of leaving...

 

[Lascaris]

Also speaking of cyprus, while the possibility of cypriots revolting constantly is a real,the reality is, when the suez canal is opened,cyprus would be of paramount interest to the British how will like to see the island under their control and not under any foreign power,even a friendly and a allied power like greece.. however with the increased unrest of the population the British would choose one of two ways of dealing with this problem..1 try to sever the connection of the greek population to greece by enforcing an English education on the populace (not that hard since for the most part the cypriots are illiterate with one school in Nicosia) or give the cypriots autonomy within the empire with no possibility of leaving...

That's probably projecting the early 1950s into the 19th century. Crete was arguably far more important strategically, but this did not stop her union with Greece. Cyprus on the other hand was for the most part after 1878 an imperial backwater, the British never bothered to establish serious naval and military facilities till the mid 20th century and were quite willing to hand it over to Greece in the 1910s, with their offer to hand it over to Greece as part of a British-Greek alliance in 1913 and again in 1915. Even if taken trying to enforce an English education is not likely to prove any more successful than OTL.

Nevertheless better safe than sorry, so I'd prefer Greece getting Cyprus as part of the deal for keeping neutral in the war. After all Kapodistrias is still alive TTL and in OTL he had asked the powers for Greek annexation of Cyprus.

The Dodecanese... no more than 100,000 people at this point I'd say. It was ~103,000 Greeks in the early 1900s, Kastelorizo not included.