2012: Romney victory

[Pericles]

What if Romney won in 2012? The scenario I have crafted in Non-Pol Chat's TL ideas thread goes like this:
There is some economic crisis right befire the 2012 election, say Grexit. Obama's reputation is hurt and the fundamentals go against Obama rather than being for him(see Nate Silver's explanation). From fiddling with 538's demographic calculator, I got the result.
Romney/Ryan: 306 EV 50.4% of popular vote
Obama/Biden: 232 EV 47.8% of popular vote
This swing would be enough to make the Senate flip Republican. So, unlike most Romney victory scdnarios, President Romnet would enter office with a solid mandate and a fully-Republican Congress. What would be the resilts? What economic crisis could cause Romney's victory? What if?

 

[dw93]

Could defaulting on our debt in 2011 cause another crisis, giving Romney the win? I think the financial problems in Europe at the time could cause some ripples here to, costing Obama the election.

I think if Romney wins, unless Romney does prove to be a rubber stamp to the Tea Party (I think even he had his limits) or the Dems put up a flop in 2016, he's a one termer, due to a divided and unenthused party and possibly a primary challenge.

 

[Pericles]

Could defaulting on our debt in 2011 cause another crisis, giving Romney the win? I think the financial problems in Europe at the time could cause some ripples here to, costing Obama the election.

I think if Romney wins, unless Romney does prove to be a rubber stamp to the Tea Party (I think even he had his limits) or the Dems put up a flop in 2016, he's a one termer, due to a divided and unenthused party and possibly a primary challenge.

I think Grexit is better than default because the GOP would likely be blamed for default.

I think Romney might have a chance on 2016. He would do more than Obama to make the public think the econony was recovering. The economy would probably be doing better as Romney would pass tax cuts, which while flawed, would be mire than what Obama has done in his second term. Romney would be a midfle of the road politician like HW, which could work well or backfire. He would be tougher on Putin and ISIS(if they still emerge). However the factors that dog Obama could doom Romney, and the man is a gaffe machine who struggles at politics. I think it would be an interesting alternate history, maybe I should do it. I'd definitely read a Romney wins TL.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

I think the Ryan budget would definitely pass. Also, the Syrian Civil War gets concluded rather quickly due to Romney not being a believer in American disengagement with the world as Obama is. ISIS would never get the breathing room it does in OTL thanks to this, and I also don't think Putin would attack the Crimea - or go into the Crimea and then stop completely (no fighting in east Ukraine)

 

[Pericles]

I think the Ryan budget would definitely pass. Also, the Syrian Civil War gets concluded rather quickly due to Romney not being a believer in American disengagement with the world as Obama is. ISIS would never get the breathing room it does in OTL thanks to this, and I also don't think Putin would attack the Crimea - or go into the Crimea and then stop completely (no fighting in east Ukraine)

Would the entirety of th Ryan budget, including the Medicare reforms, get passed? I think Romney would ntervene in Syria and depose Assad, I could see him bombing ISIS before it can gain momentum. I'm not entirely sure if his Syria intervention would work. I think Romney might have the lead in 2016, the economy is recovering and Hillary is a weak candidate.

 

[dw93]

I think the Ryan budget would definitely pass. Also, the Syrian Civil War gets concluded rather quickly due to Romney not being a believer in American disengagement with the world as Obama is. ISIS would never get the breathing room it does in OTL thanks to this, and I also don't think Putin would attack the Crimea - or go into the Crimea and then stop completely (no fighting in east Ukraine)

So, in other words, Romney is good internationally, bad domestically?

 

[strangecircus]

I think the Ryan budget would definitely pass. Also, the Syrian Civil War gets concluded rather quickly due to Romney not being a believer in American disengagement with the world as Obama is. ISIS would never get the breathing room it does in OTL thanks to this, and I also don't think Putin would attack the Crimea - or go into the Crimea and then stop completely (no fighting in east Ukraine)

Don't want to really talk politics, but based on what?

Ukraine is a no-go zone and 100% in Russia's sphere of influence... you would have to change Putin the man... do you honestly think a former KGB agent who rides naked on a horse, does martial arts and whose entire image and personality is "tough guy" would be intimidated in any way by a silver spoon investment banker? Russia but more importantly Putin would not tolerate any Ukrainian independence or Ukraine entering the EU or worse NATO and the result is exactly the same. In fact, Putin could have gone further and drove his tanks all the way into the Ukranian capital, but he is far too politically savvy to work in any area where the populace doesn't support him. Never bluff if you are not prepared to call, trade New York for Kiev.

Same for Iraq... unless Assad invites the Americans in or Iraq invites the Americans in, it ends the same way with ISIS controlling large swaths of territory... the only change would be, to maintain his tough-guy persona Romney might do a no-fly zone above Syria right away after the chemical weapons, which might deter Putin from going into Syria. But then again, he might just do it to stick a finger in the eye of NATO. In fact you could argue that Putin bleeding his forces in Syria is of great geopolitical benefit to the Americans, and had Putin not pulled out just now he could have been dragged into a long and costly destabilizing war. But again, Putin is far too smart for that.

The President can't just do whatever he wants, and he especially can't do whatever he wants when he's playing with a country with enough nuclear weapons to destroy America several times over... he could be tougher and look more robust, which would make people like you happy, but to change the actual situation on the ground takes real action which means boots which won't happen because the US is war weary. Romney won't change that.

 

[Pericles]

I think Romney bombing Syria in September 2013, or even earlier, would have serious effects on the situation on the ground. And this is up for contention, but Obama backing down on his 'red line' made the West look toothless, and so that helped motivate Putin to go into Crimea and Ukraine. If Putin thinks there'll be stronger resistance, he might not go into Ukraine. Most likely he still would and you'd see a new Cold War between Putin and Romney, or at least close to it. In Iraq, it's debatable whether ISIS still emerges. I think the unemployment rate falling to 5% would be more well-known under a Romney Presidency, as Republicans would try to use it to bolster Romney's re-election chances, while Democrats find it too hard to uphold a lame duck. And while Republicans can dismiss Obama's record by pointing out that wages and the economy are stagnant, it is harder for Democrats to talk about income inequality, wage stagnation and the like. Though I think Romney's re-election would be on the margin of Obama's 2012, unless Hillary gets indicted, Bernie is nominated and flops or something else shocking happens. Which could be possible given how crazy OTL 2016 has been

 

[dw93]

I think Romney bombing Syria in September 2013, or even earlier, would have serious effects on the situation on the ground. And this is up for contention, but Obama backing down on his 'red line' made the West look toothless, and so that helped motivate Putin to go into Crimea and Ukraine. If Putin thinks there'll be stronger resistance, he might not go into Ukraine. Most likely he still would and you'd see a new Cold War between Putin and Romney, or at least close to it. In Iraq, it's debatable whether ISIS still emerges. I think the unemployment rate falling to 5% would be more well-known under a Romney Presidency, as Republicans would try to use it to bolster Romney's re-election chances, while Democrats find it too hard to uphold a lame duck. And while Republicans can dismiss Obama's record by pointing out that wages and the economy are stagnant, it is harder for Democrats to talk about income inequality, wage stagnation and the like. Though I think Romney's re-election would be on the margin of Obama's 2012, unless Hillary gets indicted, Bernie is nominated and flops or something else shocking happens. Which could be possible given how crazy OTL 2016 has been

In my opinion, Romney would at best be a George HW Bush. Good at foreign policy (I have my doubts, a lot of Dubya's peeps were advising Romney in 2012), but bad on domestic policy (best case, he's gridlocked, worst case he's a tea party rubber stamp.) 2016 for me depends on the Tea Party. If Romney pisses them off, he loses, if he fires them up, but the Dems have a good candidate and good campaign, it's a toss up, if the Dems flop, 2016 is Romney's for the taking.

 

[Pericles]

Maybe there could be an environmental disaster of some sort, Romney would probably have out some crony or oil billionaire at the EPA and undermined regulations.

Also, what happens with the Ryan budget? Does it all get passed or is it stopped or diluted?

 

[dw93]

Maybe there could be an environmental disaster of some sort, Romney would probably have out some crony or oil billionaire at the EPA and undermined regulations.

Also, what happens with the Ryan budget? Does it all get passed or is it stopped or diluted?

It passes. If the Dems retake congress in 2014 (which I think is likely, at least in the Senate), it may get watered down, but it passes. I could see Romney botching an environmental disaster, but for it to cost him the election, it would have to happen at the very earliest late 2015.

 

[SactoMan101]

If Romney had won, in my opinion the result is that we could start to see significant changes to the Federal income tax system as early as 2013--and by ATL March 2016, we could have a tax system with very few deductions, if not approaching the point of a no-loophole low-rate flat tax.

And such a change will result in a broader economic recovery in the USA, which in turn "floats the boat" of other economies around the world as they sell more goods to an economically-revived USA.

For example, Greece would do surprisingly well in this ATL 2016, because a revived US economy means a lot more Americans visit Greece as tourists, which means real hard currency earnings for a country hard-hit by the Grexit in this TL's 2011.

 

[Pericles]

To clarify the makeup of Congress TTL, and therefore Romney's capabilities:
All Democrats who won by a 6-point margin or less lose due to 3% swing to GOP
2012 Senate elections TTL-Changes
Indiana: Richard Mourdock(R) defeats Joe Donnelly(D)
Montana: Denny Rehberg(R) defeats incumbent Jon Tester(D)
New Mexico: Heather Wilson(R) defeats Martin Heinrich(D)
North Dakota: Rick Berg(R) defeats Heidi Heitkamp(D)
Ohio: Josh Mandel(R) defeats incumbent Sherrod Brown(D)
Virginia: George Allen(R) defeats Tim Kaine(D)
Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson(R) defeats Tammy Baldwin(D)

Republican: 52+5
Democrat: 46-5
Independent: 2_

2012 House elections TTL-changes
Arizona 1: Jonathan Paton(R) defeats Ann Kirkpatrick(D)
Arizona 2: Martha McSally(R) defeats Ron Barber(D)
Arizona 9: Vernon Parker(R) defeats Kyrsten Sinema(D)
California 7: Incumbent Dan Lungren(R) defeats Ami Bera(D)
California 26: Tony Strickland(R)defeats Julia Brownley(D)
California 36: Incumbent Mary Bono Mack(R) defeats Raul Ruiz(D)
California 52: Brian Bilbray(R) defeats Scott Peters(D)
Connecticut 5: Andrew Roraback(R) defeats Elizabeth Esty(D)
Florida 18: Incumbent Allen West(R) defeats Patrick Murphy(D)
Illinois 10: Incumbent Robert Dold(R) defeats Brad Schneider(D)
New Hampshire 1: Incumbent Frank Guinta(R) defeats Carol-Shea Porter(D)
New Hampshire 2: Incumbent Charlie Bass(R) defeats Ann McLane Kuster(D)
New York 1: Randy Altschuler(R) defeats incumbent Tim Bishop(D)
New York 18: Nan Hayworth(R) defeats Sean Maloney(D)
New York 21: Matt Doheny(R) defeats incumbent Bill Owens(R)
New York 24: Ann Marie Burkle(R) defeats Dan Maffei(D)
North Carolina 7: David Rouzer(R) defeats incumbent Mike McIntyre(D)
Republican: 250+8 50.6%
Democrat: 185-8 45.8%

 

[Politibrit]

I think the Ryan budget would definitely pass. Also, the Syrian Civil War gets concluded rather quickly due to Romney not being a believer in American disengagement with the world as Obama is. ISIS would never get the breathing room it does in OTL thanks to this, and I also don't think Putin would attack the Crimea - or go into the Crimea and then stop completely (no fighting in east Ukraine)

I find it questionable to say that intervention would conclude the war in Syria, the past 20 years of western intervention in the middle east havent exactly brought peace. If Romney intervened against Assad, I think the outcome would be similar to what happened in Libya, the existing dictator would be toppled, but a divided opposition would mean that the country would fall into another civil war pretty quickly, and you would probably still get Isis or something very much like it. I think Obama was damned if he did and damned if he didnt in this situation.

 

[Puzzle]

I find it questionable to say that intervention would conclude the war in Syria, the past 20 years of western intervention in the middle east havent exactly brought peace. If Romney intervened against Assad, I think the outcome would be similar to what happened in Libya, the existing dictator would be toppled, but a divided opposition would mean that the country would fall into another civil war pretty quickly, and you would probably still get Isis or something very much like it. I think Obama was damned if he did and damned if he didnt in this situation.

I tend to agree with you, US forces could certainly have destroyed the coherent fighting forces, but then you'd just get something that ISIS mk II could crawl out of. I don't mind Obama staying out of Syria, just that he broke his 'red line' in doing so.

Overall I see Romney being more interventionist, even in the debates he was talking about Russia being a primary geopolitical threat, a line that got him laughed at which seems prescient now.

 

[Pericles]

If Romney had won, in my opinion the result is that we could start to see significant changes to the Federal income tax system as early as 2013--and by ATL March 2016, we could have a tax system with very few deductions, if not approaching the point of a no-loophole low-rate flat tax.

And such a change will result in a broader economic recovery in the USA, which in turn "floats the boat" of other economies around the world as they sell more goods to an economically-revived USA.

For example, Greece would do surprisingly well in this ATL 2016, because a revived US economy means a lot more Americans visit Greece as tourists, which means real hard currency earnings for a country hard-hit by the Grexit in this TL's 2011.

That's an interesting idea. One thing ignored about Romney was that he was a fiscally conservative governor who managed to reform Massachusetts out of the red. Maybe we'd see Romney the reformer in the White House.

So, with tax reform maybe income taxes are cut by 20% as per Romney's platform, corporate taxes cut in half and a simplification of the tax code into a few brackets and closing of loopholes. Maybe the Republicans pass a VAT to pay for it, Ted Cruz's platform has it so the idea isn't anathema to Republicans. That would probably be needed to pass it, as the Democrats would be unlikely to support more tax cuts and reconciliation may need to be used. A requirement for using reconciliation, if I'm not mistaken, is that the bill doesn't increase the deficit.

The Ryan budget passing would bw interesting, given its fundamental reforms to Medicare. I think Democrats would oppose the agenda described above, they'd describe it as 'dismantling' Medicare, unfair tax 'giveaays' for the rich, a regressive tax and a heartless attack on social programs. I could see there being a sizable backlash against this.