AHC Greater Bulgaria

[Hvalrossen]

Challenge 1
How can you with a pod in 1900 get a greater Bulgaria?

How can you make Bulgaria in 2018 comprise this territory with a pod in 1900. Bonus if Istanbul is Bulgarian.

Challenge 2
How can you with a pod in 1900 get a greater Bulgaria comprising the territory pictured below. You do not need to take keep the borders of other states than Bulgaria. Other states than Bulgaria can change as much as you want ot think is needed for the scenario to work.

Challenge 3:
With a pod in OTL border of communist Bulgaria following WW2 aswell as OTL borders of post communist Bulgaria. What could be the largest population Bulgaria could have? What policies could encourage population growth?

Could Bulgaria reach
- 20 million
- 30 million
- 40 million
- 50 million
- 100 million
- 200 million
by 2020?

While this scenario does not entail a greater Bulgarian nation state, the enlarged population could be seen as "greater" or "bigger".

Challenge 4
Have Bulgaria become part of the kingdom of Yugoslavia(KY). What would the borders of this Bulgaria ATL be like?

Challenge 5
Have Bulgaria be part of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia(SFRY). What would the borders of this ATL Bulgaria be like?

Challenge 6
Following the breakup of OTL Yugoslavia have FYROM and the Bulgarian ethnic area of Serbia and Kosovo reunify with OTL Bulgaria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarians_in_Serbia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Macedonia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorani_people
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/art...vo-s-gorani-as-bulgarian-minority--11-26-2017
http://bnr.bg/en/post/100951260/mac...ort-for-ethnic-bulgarians-in-kosovo-is-needed

 

[Hvalrossen]

To make reading the first map i posted easier to read i have to more maps to help illustrate how i imagine the border being. The first map named "729px-Greece_relief_location_map.jpg" is the base map that i used to illustrate the border on. The second map "Alternate Greco-Bulgarian border illustrated.png" gives a closer and more detailed look of hte alternate border.

 

[Dementor]

How can you with a POD in 1900 get a greater Bulgaria?

How can you make Bulgaria in 2018 comprise this territory with a pod in 1900. Bonus if Istanbul is Bulgarian.
View attachment 380521

Bulgaria joins the Entente in WWI and gets most of Turkish Thrace at the peace conference, as well as Southern Dobruja returned from Romania (no impossible if Bulgaria is an Entente member, as the whole argument about Romania needing it as compensation would no longer be the case after Romania expanded three times). Later, there is a conflict with Greece, which Bulgaria wins (perhaps in conjunction with a Greko-Turkish war). Later on Yugoslavia collapses on borders of nationality but pressure from Bulgaria's neighbors prevent an unification with Macedonia.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Bulgaria joins the Entente in WWI and gets most of Turkish Thrace at the peace conference, as well as Southern Dobruja returned from Romania (no impossible if Bulgaria is an Entente member, as the whole argument about Romania needing it as compensation would no longer be the case after Romania expanded three times). Later, there is a conflict with Greece, which Bulgaria wins (perhaps in conjunction with a Greko-Turkish war). Later on Yugoslavia collapses on borders of nationality but pressure from Bulgaria's neighbors prevent an unification with Macedonia.

If Bukgaria had all this territory it would be much more sparsey populated. Might this impact urbanisation and industrialisation of Bulgaria aswell as religious and demographic change? I imagine a more rural Bulgaria to have more population growth than OTL. Also a more rural Bulgaria would also remain more religious than OTL.

 

[Dementor]

If Bukgaria had all this territory it would be much more sparsey populated.

It would be less sparsely populated initially, but not by much and eventually Bulgaria might well have a higher population density than in OTL. Many people who became refugees in OTL would be able to return to their homes and there would be more land to settle Bulgarians from other parts of Macedonia. In addition, there would be less impoverishment without the disasters of a lost war and further waves of refugees. And as you noted, in the long term, if urbanization was slowed down, population growth would be even higher. Also, I don't think that all minorities would leave - this certainly didn't happen in OTL.

Might this impact urbanisation and industrialisation of Bulgaria aswell as religious and demographic change?

Certainly due to the factors outlined above, but the most important factor for the fast urbanisation and industrialisation was the Communist takeover of Bulgaria which is quite unlikely to happen here.

Also a more rural Bulgaria would also remain more religious than OTL.

Quite likely, though Bulgaria was never as religious as its Orthodox neighbors. Again, the important factor - at least regarding official recognition of the church is whether there is a Communist takeover.

To make reading the first map i posted easier to read i have to more maps to help illustrate how i imagine the border being. The first map named "729px-Greece_relief_location_map.jpg" is the base map that i used to illustrate the border on. The second map "Alternate Greco-Bulgarian border illustrated.png" gives a closer and more detailed look of hte alternate border.

Seems a logical border. What I find difficult to reconcile with the scenario is suggested is how Bulgaria could obtain the islands of Thasos, Samothrace and Imbros, as Greece's navy was far superior to the Bulgarian one. Perhaps they could have been exchanged for other territory, especially around Thessaloniki.

 

[Hvalrossen]

It would be less sparsely populated initially, but not by much and eventually Bulgaria might well have a higher population density than in OTL. Many people who became refugees in OTL would be able to return to their homes and there would be more land to settle Bulgarians from other parts of Macedonia. In addition, there would be less impoverishment without the disasters of a lost war and further waves of refugees. And as you noted, in the long term, if urbanization was slowed down, population growth would be even higher.

Would the refugee situation have much impact at all? Was not most bulgarian refugees, fleeing to Bulgarian dominated areas not far away lands?

Certainly due to the factors outlined above, but the most important factor for the fast urbanisation and industrialisation was the Communist takeover of Bulgaria which is quite unlikely to happen here.

Do you think a communist Bulgaria might having these borders is possible?

Quite likely, though Bulgaria was never as religious as its Orthodox neighbors. Again, the important factor - at least regarding official recognition of the church is whether there is a Communist takeover.

Intresting! Do you have source for this statement?
The churches position would likely be strong or similar to Greece's situation in a non communist Bulgaria. But do you think it would be possible for the Bulgarian Orthodox Church to thrive without recognition? Could communist rule be overcome by the church? Could the Communist state coop the church, or the other way around?

Seems a logical border. What I find difficult to reconcile with the scenario is suggested is how Bulgaria could obtain the islands of Thasos, Samothrace and Imbros, as Greece's navy was far superior to the Bulgarian one. Perhaps they could have been exchanged for other territory, especially around Thessaloniki.

I tryed to make the border follow some sort of natural obstacles, in this case a mountain ridge.
I saw some ethnoc graphic maps of the Balkan in the early 1900s which showed that much of the coastline was inhabited by Greece while Bugarians inhabited more of the inland. therefore i partioned the area that Greece and Bulgaria have both claimed(Greek Macedonia, Greek Thrace) as equal that i could. That way Greece gets OTL Greek Macedonia, while Bulgaria gets Greek Thrace. I am not familar with how Bulgaria might gain these islands but it would sorted on the diplomatic table.

 

[DocJamore]

How can you with a POD in 1900 get a greater Bulgaria?

How can you make Bulgaria in 2018 comprise this territory with a pod in 1900. Bonus if Istanbul is Bulgarian.
View attachment 380521

I have been waiting for a timeline like this. You have almost the map I wanted to see too. As for how it would come about, it is easy to butterfly the Second Balkan War from happening. The only reason it happened was because that on paper the Bulgarian army was greater than the Greek and Serbian ones, so the Tsar of Bulgaria ordered the army to attack blind to the the reality the Bulgarian would get piled up on without any friends in the Balkans. And Bulgaria did get piled up on. Just having something like Romania occupying Dobruja wold make the Tsar realize that he has no friends in the region, only enemies and end the First Balkan War in an Uti possidetis peace.

Turkey and Bulgaria will not be friends and it will take at least another war for them to abandon their claims on Erdine. Bulgaria getting Gallipoli seems like a Anglo-Russian agreement on the straits. I could see them getting it if in exchange it became a demilitarized zone. The situation of what would be going on in Turkey would be very interesting in TTL.

I want to make a point here. Kavala would be MUCH more important to Bulgaria economically than Macedonia. A Sofia-Kavala railway would dramatically change the economic and political trajectory of the country. Politically however it would be a different story since Macedonian Bulgarians were a significant force in Bulgarian politics. They regularly assassinated politicians who didn't make the Macedonian issue their first political priority.

The two biggest minorities in TTL Bulgaria would be the Greeks and the Turks. This would create some internal tension but I feel the country can survive since these two groups could be played off each other. Greece not getting Trance would have some very interesting ramifications on Greek politics. As much as Greek-wanks are tossed around on this board, a Greek screw like this is a viable outcome and would be an interesting thread or timeline in and of itself to discuss the ramifications.

 

[Redcoat]

Fellow Greater Bulgaria lover! Yeah I'd say have the Second Balkan war never happen and then have Bulgaria join the Allies, helping immensely on that front.

 

[Hvalrossen]

I have been waiting for a timeline like this. You have almost the map I wanted to see too.

How would your map look like?

As for how it would come about, it is easy to butterfly the Second Balkan War from happening. The only reason it happened was because that on paper the Bulgarian army was greater than the Greek and Serbian ones, so the Tsar of Bulgaria ordered the army to attack blind to the the reality the Bulgarian would get piled up on without any friends in the Balkans. And Bulgaria did get piled up on. Just having something like Romania occupying Dobruja wold make the Tsar realize that he has no friends in the region, only enemies and end the First Balkan War in an Uti possidetis peace.

Turkey and Bulgaria will not be friends and it will take at least another war for them to abandon their claims on Erdine. Bulgaria getting Gallipoli seems like a Anglo-Russian agreement on the straits. I could see them getting it if in exchange it became a demilitarized zone. The situation of what would be going on in Turkey would be very interesting in TTL.

Maybe Turkey could lose more ties becouse of the christian genocides? Thus allowing for Turkey's enemies to be more aggresove against the Turks.

How do you imagine Turkey in such a scenario to be? Would they attempt to use displaced Turks to consolidate Turkish Kurdistan?

I want to make a point here. Kavala would be MUCH more important to Bulgaria economically than Macedonia. A Sofia-Kavala railway would dramatically change the economic and political trajectory of the country. Politically however it would be a different story since Macedonian Bulgarians were a significant force in Bulgarian politics. They regularly assassinated politicians who didn't make the Macedonian issue their first political priority.

Maybe there could have been a Greco-Bulgarian population exchange similar to the Greek-Turkish population exchange?

Thrace would also be more defendable than Macedonia for Bulgaria.

I was not aware of bolded. Intresting!

The two biggest minorities in TTL Bulgaria would be the Greeks and the Turks. This would create some internal tension but I feel the country can survive since these two groups could be played off each other. Greece not getting Trance would have some very interesting ramifications on Greek politics. As much as Greek-wanks are tossed around on this board, a Greek screw like this is a viable outcome and would be an interesting thread or timeline in and of itself to discuss the ramifications.

I think that with these borders Bulgarians risk becoming a minority demographically. Therefore social engineering and expulsions would likely be neccesary to enforce and secure these borders. Present day Turkish Thrace is much more populated than OTL Bulgaria.

How do you think these borders would affect Greek internal politics?
In the aftermath of whatever made these borders how would the relations between Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey be? Would Bulgaria and Greece eventually be friendlier with each other in opposition to the Turks? Or might Greece and Turkey connect over common dislike of Bulgaria?[/QUOTE]

 

[Hvalrossen]

Fellow Greater Bulgaria lover! Yeah I'd say have the Second Balkan war never happen and then have Bulgaria join the Allies, helping immensely on that front.

If Greece is invaded by the axis and Turkey is neutral as in OTL then Bulgaria would be relativly unmolested in such a scenario where they(Bulgaria) join the allies. Only Romania in OTL axis powers would want any of the Bulgarian land. Bulgaria also had traditional ties to Russia, aswell as the Soviet Union competing for influence in Bulgaria with the Germans, in a scenario where the Soviets are more succesfull we might see Bulgaria joining the allies, or being invaded by the axis likely becouse of their potential friendly ties with the allies. Would be intresting if Britain had been more pro-Bulgarian earlier, then there might be alot of pro-British sentiment in Bulgaria.

When you speak of the "allies" you a refering to WW2 i take it. Or are you refering to WW1? How do you imagine Bulgarias role in either of these wars?

 

[Redcoat]

If Greece is invaded by the axis and Turkey is neutral as in OTL then Bulgaria would be relativly unmolested in such a scenario where they(Bulgaria) join the allies. Only Romania in OTL axis powers would want any of the Bulgarian land. Bulgaria also had traditional ties to Russia, aswell as the Soviet Union competing for influence in Bulgaria with the Germans, in a scenario where the Soviets are more succesfull we might see Bulgaria joining the allies, or being invaded by the axis likely becouse of their potential friendly ties with the allies. Would be intresting if Britain had been more pro-Bulgarian earlier, then there might be alot of pro-British sentiment in Bulgaria.

When you speak of the "allies" you a refering to WW2 i take it. Or are you refering to WW1? How do you imagine Bulgarias role in either of these wars?

Ww1. Your analysis of WW2 seems sound enough though. Here's my scenario, basically get a WW1 with Austria Hungary against the Ottomans, Serbia, and Greece. How being beyond me but I suspect maybe get the Second Balkan War turn to WW1. Bulgaria despite being surrounded by enemies ends up holding on and by the end of the war makes gains. At Versailles it is rewarded for its efforts, this I'm not sure of though seeing how Britain has betrayed nations like that in the name of Balance of Power pretty frequently. Don't remember any examples on hand so anyone help me with that?

 

[Hvalrossen]

Bulgaria joins the Entente in WWI and gets most of Turkish Thrace at the peace conference, as well as Southern Dobruja returned from Romania (no impossible if Bulgaria is an Entente member, as the whole argument about Romania needing it as compensation would no longer be the case after Romania expanded three times). Later, there is a conflict with Greece, which Bulgaria wins (perhaps in conjunction with a Greko-Turkish war). Later on Yugoslavia collapses on borders of nationality but pressure from Bulgaria's neighbors prevent an unification with Macedonia.

Here is a map with FYROM unified with this ATL Bulgaria.

 

[Hvalrossen]

Here's my scenario, basically get a WW1 with Austria Hungary against the Ottomans, Serbia, and Greece. How being beyond me but I suspect maybe get the Second Balkan War turn to WW1. Bulgaria despite being surrounded by enemies ends up holding on and by the end of the war makes gains. At Versailles it is rewarded for its efforts, this I'm not sure of though seeing how Britain has betrayed nations like that in the name of Balance of Power pretty frequently. Don't remember any examples on hand so anyone help me with that?

Seems like a risky strategy. But in this scenario Bulgaria would not have to worry about Romania. Bulgaria would also get help against Serbia, might even annex Toraklia from Serbia. The most demanding front for Bulgaria would be with Greece and Turkey. But they might not cooperate well togheter due to bad relations, his might give Bulgaria a chanche to split them from each other.

 

[Hvalrossen]

I added another AHC scenario(scenario 2) for those who are intrested.

 

[DocJamore]

I added another AHC scenario(scenario 2) for those who are intrested.

You are worried about minorities in TTL Bulgaria for scenario 1 but you made a map adding even more minorities to TTL Bulgeria than before! I do not see your logic. Do you want more population transfers and expulsions?

 

[Hvalrossen]

You are worried about minorities in TTL Bulgaria for scenario 1 but you made a map adding even more minorities to TTL Bulgeria than before! I do not see your logic. Do you want more population transfers and expulsions?

Anything goes. You can also have Bulgaria be a state with less of a ethnic indentity. Besides population can change quickly, if there are different birth and mortality rates for different parts of the population. It does not need to be violent or coerecive. This thread is just meant to be a discussion, where commenters can experiment with ideas.

 

[Dementor]

Would the refugee situation have much impact at all? Was not most bulgarian refugees, fleeing to Bulgarian dominated areas not far away lands?

Not having to house up to 250 thousand refugees would certainly have a positive impact for a country the size of Bulgaria. As for the refugees, they usually settled either close to where they crossed the border into Bulgaria or around the main cities. But many indeed settled in non-Bulgarian dominated territory. These were often relatively sparsely populated and became further so after a significant proportion of these minorities emigrated. Also, the Bulgarian state encouraged this to strengthen Bulgarian control over these newly conquered lands.

Do you think a communist Bulgaria might having these borders is possible?

I would say that the scenario I described precludes Bulgaria becoming Communist. Bulgaria entering WWI on the Entente side would certainly force out the Ottomans out of the war, open supply routes to Russia and very likely cause the defeat of the Central Powers before the Bolsheviks could come to power. And without the Soviet Union Bulgaria would almost certainly not become Communist.

Intresting! Do you have source for this statement?

This is difficult to quantify, though the low rates of church attendance and following of Christian traditions is a good indication. There is also the historically relatively low influence the Church had in Bulgarian politics and how quickly it declined once it lost its official positions. This is usually explained with the fact that for centuries the Orthodox Church was a foreign dominated institution which was regarded as oppressive and corrupt.

The churches position would likely be strong or similar to Greece's situation in a non communist Bulgaria.

Most likely not to the extent of Greece, but of course better than in OTL.

But do you think it would be possible for the Bulgarian Orthodox Church to thrive without recognition? Could communist rule be overcome by the church? Could the Communist state coop the church, or the other way around?

In OTL the Church was more or less co-opted, in that it recognized the rule of the Communists, while it was left more or less alone by the authorities. In fact, on occasion the Communist government assisted the Bulgarian Orthodox Church in various ways, like lobbying for its recognition by the Constantinople Patriarchate.

I tryed to make the border follow some sort of natural obstacles, in this case a mountain ridge.

This border also avoids interrupting the connection between Yugoslavia and Greece, which would be one of the best way to get them into an alliance against Bulgaria.

I saw some ethnoc graphic maps of the Balkan in the early 1900s which showed that much of the coastline was inhabited by Greece while Bugarians inhabited more of the inland. therefore i partioned the area that Greece and Bulgaria have both claimed(Greek Macedonia, Greek Thrace) as equal that i could. That way Greece gets OTL Greek Macedonia, while Bulgaria gets Greek Thrace. I am not familar with how Bulgaria might gain these islands but it would sorted on the diplomatic table.

Your scenario still includes eastern Greek Macedonia in Bulgaria, though most of it is in Greece. Along with a still significant Bulgarian population, while leaving many Greeks in Bulgaria. Considering that there was a population exchange in OTL, this might happen here as well.

 

[Dementor]

I have been waiting for a timeline like this. You have almost the map I wanted to see too. As for how it would come about, it is easy to butterfly the Second Balkan War from happening. The only reason it happened was because that on paper the Bulgarian army was greater than the Greek and Serbian ones, so the Tsar of Bulgaria ordered the army to attack blind to the the reality the Bulgarian would get piled up on without any friends in the Balkans. And Bulgaria did get piled up on. Just having something like Romania occupying Dobruja wold make the Tsar realize that he has no friends in the region, only enemies and end the First Balkan War in an Uti possidetis peace.

Fellow Greater Bulgaria lover! Yeah I'd say have the Second Balkan war never happen and then have Bulgaria join the Allies, helping immensely on that front.

The problem with these suggestions is that the Second Balkan War must have happened in this scenario, otherwise Bulgaria would not have such Western borders. The salient around Strumica is especially distinctive.

 

[Hvalrossen]

In OTL the Church was more or less co-opted, in that it recognized the rule of the Communists, while it was left more or less alone by the authorities. In fact, on occasion the Communist government assisted the Bulgarian Orthodox Church in various ways, like lobbying for its recognition by the Constantinople Patriarchate.

The Greek occupation. Greco-Bulgarian struggle for control of the Orthodox church of Bulgaria.

 

[Hvalrossen]

I would say that the scenario I described precludes Bulgaria becoming Communist. Bulgaria entering WWI on the Entente side would certainly force out the Ottomans out of the war, open supply routes to Russia and very likely cause the defeat of the Central Powers before the Bolsheviks could come to power. And without the Soviet Union Bulgaria would almost certainly not become Communist.

My question was that even if Bulgaria became communist as in OTL, might it expand its borders? Maybe a succesfull war against "bad western leaning bourgeois communist Tito" with "kindhearted Stalin". Or a succesfull war against a non-nato Turkey or Greece.

In OTL the Church was more or less co-opted, in that it recognized the rule of the Communists, while it was left more or less alone by the authorities. In fact, on occasion the Communist government assisted the Bulgarian Orthodox Church in various ways, like lobbying for its recognition by the Constantinople Patriarchate.

But could the communist state have changed theology? Could the communist state use the church to enforce a moral code in society? Could the church under the commnuist party resemble some sort of theocracy?