Update I
Oppo, what the hell are you doing?
Eating crabs with Old Bay on them.
No, you stupid Marylander! What's the TL about?
The POD deals with some Northern Irish by-elections, but the main one is about UKIP winning the Eastleigh and Heywood & Middleton by-elections.
Will you actually get this done in a fortnight?
No.
Anything else you want to say?
Thanks to @Cevolian for looking over this and giving me a few ideas.
Let's get to it.
Sounds good.
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“Welcome to the BBC’s election center. Four minutes from now, when Big Ben strikes 10, we can legally reveal the contents of this; our exit poll. Until then, our lips are sealed. This election must count as one of the most fascinating and unpredictable ever. With an exciting night ahead of us, all the results will be coming in here, and they will be analyzed to determine if David Cameron will return triumphant, or if Ed Miliband will succeed in driving him from Number 10 despite being the most vulnerable party leader since IDS; or whether it will be a hung Parliament, making us wait hours or even days before we find out who gets the keys to the door.
So, we better get started, first with our exit poll, which even now I can’t review until Big Ben strikes 10. Remember, this is an exit poll which has been carefully calculated and not exactly on the nail. But here it is. It is ten o’clock, and we are saying that the Conservatives will be the largest party.
We project that the Conservatives will be on 265 seats (down 46 from 2010), with Labour six behind on 249 (down 9). The SNP is projected to take 58 seats, which is every Scottish seat but one, the Liberal Democrats are at 10 (down 47), and UKIP are at 42 seats. I’d like to remind everyone that UKIP is an unknown at this point, so take that with a bit of salt. We’re going to Jeremy now to see what sort of government might be formed with these figures.”
“Thank you David, and given the current figures, it looks like the Liberal Democrats will once again hold the balance of power despite only being projected to win 10 seats. Let’s put up the Conservatives in our mock Parliament. With this shocking number of MPs for UKIP, it’s likely that it will be Cameron’s first call will be to Mr. Farage. That puts them together at 307, not enough for a majority. The DUP have already said they will work with UKIP, which puts it up to 315. Of course, the LibDems are at 10, which puts them just 1 away. You’ll then need the Ulster Unionists, which will give a majority of exactly 1. It’s possible that the Liberals (not LibDems) in Sheffield if they win, may join the Conservatives along with Sylvia Hermon, but then again they’re only 1 seat each.
For Labour, they start out at 249. Now, despite Miliband saying he won’t do a deal with the SNP he’s going to have to do it. That’s 307, equal to the Conservatives and UKIP. The LibDems said they would be open to working with Labour, so let’s add them in, which is still 9 away. The SDLP and Plaid Cymru together give 7 MPs, and if we add in Caroline Lucas they’re only 1 away. From there, it’s a bit tricky. They’re either going to have to work with RESPECT, the Liberals, or the Ulster Unionists. Anyone of those will get them over the edge. There’s also the possibility that those Labour-leaning ClarletKIP MPs might ally with Miliband in exchange for an EU referendum. Of course, any minor changes in the seat count could tip the election either way. Barring any major changes, there are going to be a record number of voices that the Prime Minister will have to listen to in order to keep their government afloat. It’s possible that another election will be called, but two-thirds of the Commons will need to support one.”
“Thank you, Jeremy. We’re now going to be joined by Michael Gove, the Chief Whip who has been a key face in the Tory campaign. What is your response to this exit poll?”
“Well, throughout the campaign, it was always thought Labour would win the most seats, but if this exit poll is correct, the Cameron government has been approved again by the voters.”
“Who would you form a coalition with?”
“I’m not going to make any premature calls here, there’s a long night ahead.”
“It seems that UKIP has done much better than what the polls were suggesting, is that because of anger over David Cameron?”
“Absolutely not, we’ve seen that many of these UKIP voters have come from Labour, who have failed to resonate with their support base. The public isn’t listening to the pundits, who thought it would be a win for Labour, but if this exit poll is correct it’s clearly a breakthrough for the Tories.”
“Thank you, Michael. We’ve just got responses to the exit poll from Nicola Sturgeon and the Liberal Democrats. Both seem to be doubting the results, with Sturgeon seeing that the pull is more than they had even hoped for, while the Liberal Democrats believe that 10 is far too low. Speaking of the LibDems, Lord Ashdown is with us tonight.”
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“These are some great numbers.”
“We’re going to make Cameron squeal.”
“We’re getting out of the EU any day now.”
The UKIP campaign meeting was exceedingly optimistic. While they had hoped to keep James and Bickley in Westminster along with most of the defectors, 42 was nothing like what anyone would have expected. Several paper candidates turned out to have a shot of entering Westminster. Pete Walmsley was one of those. He had stood unsuccessfully for the European Parliament in 2014, but had been staunchly Labour before that (with his working-class background). He’d been picked as the UKIP candidate in Great Grimsey, a safe Labour seat which had turned into a Labour-Tory marginal as of late in Lincolnshire. He had a failed television career, which had ended up to be a godsend by putting him in the spotlight of a UKIP MEP who got him a job with the party.
“Pete! This exit poll’s swing is massive! We hoped to be the LibDems for third, but we might get in second with the popular vote. You could even get elected to Parliament! Rest assured, you’ll be in good standing with Nigel when we win in 2020.”
It was his good friend Willie Newton. The two had fought quite often back in school, with him being a fan of Thatcherism and Walmsley being on the hard left. Newton left around the time Peter Hitchens joined UKIP, and they both managed to reunite at the party conference.
“There’s a shot that we’ll get in government with this coalition chaos. Labour’s dead, they’ve lost all their support in England to us and to the SNP in Scotland if that exit poll is right.”
“Get on the telly, they’re about to call Sunderland South.”
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“I, Dave Smith, Acting Returning Officer, hereby give notice to the total number of votes for each candidate for the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency was as follows. Richard Peter Elvin, UK Independence Party, 14,202 votes (mild applause comes from the UKIP activists). Stewart Thomas Hay, Conservative Party, 2,502 votes. Jim Murray, Liberal Democrats, 1,116 votes. Bridget May Phillipson, Labour Party, 21,400 votes (loud cheers erupt from Labour). Alan Michael David Robinson, Green Party, 1,095 votes, and that Bridget May Phillipson has been duly elected to serve as a member for the said constituency.”
SUNDERLAND SOUTH: LABOUR HOLD
LAB: 1
CON: 0
LD: 0
SNP: 0
UKIP: 0
OTH: 0
Houghton and Sunderland South
Labour (Bridget Phillipson) (I): 55.6% (+5.3%)
UKIP (Richard Elvin): 36.9% (+34.2%)
Conservative (Stewart Hay): 6.1% (-15.3%)
LibDem (Jim Murray): 2.9% (-11%)
Green (Alan Robinson): 2.8%
“If we look at the swing, Labour is up 5.3%, UKIP up 34.2%, the Tories down 15.3%, and the LibDems are down 11%. The Greens did not stand in this seat in 2010. I think the real shock is that the Liberal Democrats have lost their deposit, while UKIP has one of the largest swings of all time in this seat. In Sheffield and South Thanet, the range of emotions will be staggering. Despite this swing for Labour, it’s not all good news. We’re beginning to hear reports that the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls might lose his seat to either the Tories or even the UKIP candidate. We’re joined right now by right-wing Tory backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is a hard Eurosceptic and has been endorsed by UKIP. It’s great to have you here, Mr. Rees-Mogg.”
“It’s great to be here as well.”
“You’ve advocated for a deal between the Tories and UKIP, and now it looks like the Tories will need UKIP support if they want to form the next government. With this exit poll and this early result, there’s a chance that UKIP will get second in the popular vote. Is this the arrival of a new right-wing permanent political force?
“Absolutely. I’m a proud and loyal Conservative, but I think adding UKIP to our family would be a fantastic move. If UKIP is ahead of us in the popular vote, I do think David Cameron's position as Prime Minister would be in question."
