Emperor Ferdinand IV

[Jan Olbracht]

Thread about Sobieski-Habsburg marriage ( https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/sobieski-habsburg-marriage-wi.437001/#post-16516938 ) by @Vitruvius inspired me to create TL based on earlier change within House of Habsburg-survival of Ferdinand IV, King of the Romans. Keeping him alive I want to achieve two goals. First would be continuation of Habsburg rule in Spain. Due to fact, that Ferdinand was planned to marry Maria theresa of Spain, Austrian Habsburgs would have best genealogical claim to Spanish throne ITTL. Second goal is estabilishing Sobieski family as rulling house of Poland. So Ferdinand would outlive his father and succeede him as Holy Roman Emperor, he'd marry Maria Theresa as planned and would have 3 surviving children with her-sons Philip (born 1659) and Ferdinand (born 1664) and daughter Maria Theresa (born 1668). So there is one male heir to Austria and HRE and one who could inherit Spanish crown. Archduke Leopold would likely start new Tirolean/Styrian branch ITTL. Louis XIV would marry his OTL sister-in-law, Henriette of England, thus Bourbons would have no serious claims to the Spanish throne. Emperor Ferdinand IV would die in 1680 ITTL, his oldest surviving son would succeede him as Emperor. This is where second change starts-say that young Emperor Philip II is honourable man. there is still war with Ottomans and Battle of Vienna ITTL, but after battle Emperor feels that he owes debt of gratitude to King John III and do not looks him down because of his low birth and arrogance. Instead Philip agrees to marry his only sister, Maria Theresa to young Jakub Sobieski and to give him Ducal title and Oppeln in Silesia as hereditary duchy. Thus Sobieski, due to generous offer of Emperor switch to pro-Habsburg camp. Sobieski family due to Habsburg marriage rise in prominence, Jakub Sobieski would recive Austrian support during 1697 election and would get Polish throne (Austrian support was crucial for Augustus II's OTL victory, so with Sobieski it should be enough too), if he's lucky with progeny he'll estabilish new dynasty (I can imagine long line of kings named John alternated with those named James).
So begining of 18th century looks promising for Habsburgs and Sobieskis, not so much for Bourbons. Habsburg encirclement of France would continue-Archduke Ferdinand should have no serious problems to claim the throne after his crippled uncle (yes, I'll use butterfly net, despite my personal view of butterfly effect to keep sanity, so there is still Carlos II). Charles XII of Sweden also would appear on the picture, but Great Northern War would not look like IOTL...

 

[Benevolence]

Like the idea, I may be mistaken but the Habsburg did support John III Sobieski's son's candidature. They only switched to Augustus the Strong after it became clear that the internal discord among the Sobieski's hampered James Louis's candidacy (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Louis_Sobieski) did they switch the August (August also guaranteed continued PLC involvement in the Great Turkish War). Granted if he's married to an Archduchess it'll increase his chances of continued Habsburg support but if his family keeps working against him I'm not sure he'll get elected.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Like the idea, I may be mistaken but the Habsburg did support John III Sobieski's son's candidature. They only switched to Augustus the Strong after it became clear that the internal discord among the Sobieski's hampered James Louis's candidacy (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Louis_Sobieski) did they switch the August (August also guaranteed continued PLC involvement in the Great Turkish War). Granted if he's married to an Archduchess it'll increase his chances of continued Habsburg support but if his family keeps working against him I'm not sure he'll get elected.

Being given duchy in Silesia he'll have some territorial base. Also we could assume, that Archduchess is intelligent, capable woman and have great influence on her husband, who insanely loves her. And birth of their kids should further strenght his position.

 

[Vitruvius]

I like the outline. I think Ferdinand's son would be Philip I wouldn't he? Philip the Handsome was never crowned King of the Romans IIRC so there has never been an Emperor Philip. I'd also expect Leopold to be sent into the Church. Sigismund Francis didn't die OTL until 1665 after his proxy marriage to Hedwig of Pfalz-Sulzbach so there's a reasonable chance he is able to continue the original Tyrolean line. Though I could see Leopold being pulled out of the Church to marry Claudia Felicitas if Sigismund does still die without heirs.

But the bigger question is, with a POD in the 1650s that results in a different HRE succeeding Ferdinand III, is Jan Sobieski even elected King of Poland at all. Is Wisniowiecki still elected King in 1669? Does he still die in short order? Does the subsequent election (in 1674 OTL) still play out like OTL? I wonder if the actions of Ferdinand IV could impact one or both of those elections in some way. For instance what if Ferdinand puts forward his brother Leopold as a Habsburg candidate in 1669? Or again in 1674?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I like the outline. I think Ferdinand's son would be Philip I wouldn't he? Philip the Handsome was never crowned King of the Romans IIRC so there has never been an Emperor Philip. I'd also expect Leopold to be sent into the Church. Sigismund Francis didn't die OTL until 1665 after his proxy marriage to Hedwig of Pfalz-Sulzbach so there's a reasonable chance he is able to continue the original Tyrolean line. Though I could see Leopold being pulled out of the Church to marry Claudia Felicitas if Sigismund does still die without heirs.

But the bigger question is, with a POD in the 1650s that results in a different HRE succeeding Ferdinand III, is Jan Sobieski even elected King of Poland at all. Is Wisniowiecki still elected King in 1669? Does he still die in short order? Does the subsequent election (in 1674 OTL) still play out like OTL? I wonder if the actions of Ferdinand IV could impact one or both of those elections in some way. For instance what if Ferdinand puts forward his brother Leopold as a Habsburg candidate in 1669? Or again in 1674?

There was Philip of Swabia, King of the Romans.

Wiśniowiecki would still be elected due to his father's fame and due to idea, that then spread among nobles, that PLC needs "native" king ("Piast"). He was of poor health (and unlike his father-not very bright, he is usually regarded as worst King of Poland, there was anecdote, that King Michael speaks 8 languages, but he has nothing interesting to say in any of them ) so still going to die early. Sobieski as member of opposition would be denied troops, thus Podolia woulsd still be lost, thus Sobieski has occassion to get his fame as great commander beating Turks in Chocim later, after Kamieniec catastrophe, that enraged nobles. Habsburgs in OTL stopped to participate in royal elections IOTL, due to lack of success in previous elections, instead they tried with Charles of Lorraine-Habsburg backed candidate, who was not Habsburg himself (also interesting option, but for other TL).
If James Sobieski gets Duchy in Silesia, then his father would not try to get Moldavia for him, thus would avoid his failed Moldavian adventures, also with James already being married there would not be controversy with Maria Karolina Radziwiłłówna's marriage.

 

[Vitruvius]

I forgot about the Hohenstaufen's. So Philip II it is. Seems like Sobieski still stands a good chance as long as Ferdinand doesn't try to meddle to much more than his brother did OTL. I do wonder if the Holy League could be more successful than OTL. Especially if the Spanish Succession isn't looming on the horizon then Austria could focus on the east without having to worry so much about France. And with closer ties to Poland is it possible that more of the Balkans could be retaken?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I forgot about the Hohenstaufen's. So Philip II it is. Seems like Sobieski still stands a good chance as long as Ferdinand doesn't try to meddle to much more than his brother did OTL. I do wonder if the Holy League could be more successful than OTL. Especially if the Spanish Succession isn't looming on the horizon then Austria could focus on the east without having to worry so much about France. And with closer ties to Poland is it possible that more of the Balkans could be retaken?

Possibly, and with free resources, that won't be used in War of Spanish Succession, Austria could continue expansion into Balkans during early 18th Century, taking Serbia and Vallachia permamently. Perhaps Poland would take not only Podolia but also Moldavia.
Coalition against Charles XII would be weaker ITTL, if there is still Great Northern War. Augustus II was able to join it immediately as Elector of Saxony. James Sobieski, who is only King of Poland, would need to deal with nobles first. Which would be good for him! Forced to wait, he could join winning side during later stages of war..

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I wonder when Archduke Ferdinand, ITTL son of Emperor Ferdinand IV, would be send to Spain? He'll be named heir to the throne, he is only few years younger than Carlos II. Wouldn't it be perfect solution to make him regent of Spain, so he could prepare to rule Spain before his official ascendancy?

 

[Vitruvius]

If he isn't sent to Spain I could see him being made Governor of the Spanish Netherlands when he comes of age. It'd be a tough job given the constant threat of French invasion. He'd also have to walk a delicate line in dealing with the Dutch. I'm not sure if they'd be as inclined to break with the French if the Spanish Succession is more secure. So maybe no Franco-Dutch war? We've already eliminated or at least greatly altered the War of Devolution.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I think that Carlos II could be forced/urged to abdicate (or treated like Juana la Loca) if there is adult, healthly male heir around. In this scenario one Habsburg would just replace another one, not so ground-shaking change like IOTL.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Returning to War of Devolution-there is no question of Maria Theresa's dowry, what excuse for war Louis XIV would use? After death of his mother relations with Spain are going to spoil anyway, and Louis needs a glory. After all devolution law, used only in Brabant, among normal citizens, not monarchs, was poor excuse to grab Spanish Netherlands.

 

[Cornelis]

Returning to War of Devolution-there is no question of Maria Theresa's dowry, what excuse for Far Louis XIV would use? After death of his mother relations with Spain are going to spoil anyway, and Louis needs a glory. After all devolution law, used only in Brabant, among normal citizens, not monarchs, was poor excude to grab Spanish Netherlands.

It depends on the alt-Pyrenees peace. Without the boon of a royal marriage, the conditions of the peace would be more contractual, meaning for example, the renunciations of the french Crown to Catalonia are conditionnal to peaceful actions from the Spanish. An easy pretext for Louis. There is also the old claim on Flanders, which was part of France before Charles V. The French renunciation of sovereign rights over Flanders (Treaty of Madrid 1526) was later made void by a legal ruling of the Paris Parliament. The Treaty of Cambrai in 1529 had renewed the renunciation, but the legal grounding was still weak ; for instance, Artois was also removed from the Kingdom in 1529, but annexed nonetheless in 1659.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

It depends on the alt-Pyrenees peace. Without the boon of a royal marriage, the conditions of the peace would be more contractual, meaning for example, the renunciations of the french Crown to Catalonia are conditionnal to peaceful actions from the Spanish. An easy pretext for Louis. There is also the old claim on Flanders, which was part of France before Charles V. The French renunciation of sovereign rights over Flanders (Treaty of Madrid 1526) was later made void by a legal ruling of the Paris Parliament. The Treaty of Cambrai in 1529 had renewed the renunciation, but the legal grounding was still weak ; for instance, Artois was also removed from the Kingdom in 1529, but annexed nonetheless in 1659.

There is also question of Portuguese independence that could escalate into Franco-Spanish war. But ITTL, with Ferdinand's wife and her sons being undisputed heirs to Spanish Empire, including Burgundian inheritance, it is rather hard to expect Emperor's neutrality if France tries to conquer Netherlands.

 

[Cornelis]

There is also question of Portuguese independence that could escalate into Franco-Spanish war. But ITTL, with Ferdinand's wife and her sons being undisputed heirs to Spanish Empire, including Burgundian inheritance, it is rather hard to expect Emperor's neutrality if France tries to conquer Netherlands.

As in OTL, Louis XIV would use the German princes of the League of the Rhine to pressure Ferdinand out of the war. At the time of the OTL War of Devolution, the (almost) undisputed heir to Spain was Margarita Teresa, Leopold's wife, but he stayed out of the war nonetheless. If Ferdinand want to re-ignite the 30YW by attacking a rather large coalition of German princes just to allow his children to inherit all of the Spanish Netherlands, he may end up in deep trouble soon. Only after Louis' ambition turned into hubris did most of the German princes turn away from french alliance.

 

[JonasResende]

If he isn't sent to Spain I could see him being made Governor of the Spanish Netherlands when he comes of age. It'd be a tough job given the constant threat of French invasion. He'd also have to walk a delicate line in dealing with the Dutch. I'm not sure if they'd be as inclined to break with the French if the Spanish Succession is more secure. So maybe no Franco-Dutch war? We've already eliminated or at least greatly altered the War of Devolution.

The governorate of the Spanish Netherlands is in the hands of the Spanish king (who with an Austrian regent) is likely to be in favour of it. However, should D. Juan José still do his coup and all like OTL, Ferdinand's position in Brussels is at risk.

That said, Louis claimed the Spanish Netherlands in right of his wife's unpaid dowry. It's possible that Spain can still not afford the reparations that France would exact at the Pyrenees, so he could claim them for France in lieu of payment. Its flimsy, but as pointed out, so were his justifications OTL.

 

[Vitruvius]

I suppose some of the issues with France will be resolved relatively quickly. Ferdinand IV would become Emperor before the conclusion of the Franco-Spanish War. And since he was elected without the more stringent capitulations forced upon Leopold OTL he may be able to intervene a little more. Obviously this will create a lot of tension among some of the German Princes but Ferdinand III had mobilized Austrian troops in Italy before his death and it's hard not to see Ferdinand IV, given his impending marriage to Maria Theresa, try to apply some pressure on Spain's behalf, perhaps even if only to defend Milan or put the squeeze on France's ally Savoy. So perhaps the Peace terms aren't quite so terrible. But on the other hand Ferdinand would probably want Spain to make a durable peace ASAP so he can prevent things from boiling over in Germany and then pivot quickly to the rising Turkish threat to the east. I could possibly see the war end a year or two earlier with the Peace with France coinciding with Ferdinand's marriage to Maria Theresa, then Spain/Austria can insert a clause into the Peace that recognizes her right to the Spanish Succession in the advent Philip has no male heirs. Obviously Louis can and will do what he wants but this maybe could remove enough of a pretext to calm things a bit.

Then there's the Turkish War in 1663. OTL Louis even sent a token French force to assist before pulling out to go after Spain. So maybe if the Spanish Succession is more secure at that point (Ferdinand IV has a couple sons) then Austria wouldn't have to make such an unfavorable Peace with the Ottomans.

 

[The Professor]

With a continued Habsburg encirclement France draws closer to England and probably the Dutch rebels.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

With a continued Habsburg encirclement France draws closer to England and probably the Dutch rebels.

And continuing Habsburg Spain is still overstretched in Europe, propably is going to lost Southern Netherlands.

 

[Janprimus]

And continuing Habsburg Spain is still overstretched in Europe, propably is going to lost Southern Netherlands.

I doubt, that the Spanish Inheritance will be without complications. France and Savoy may want a piece of the pie, and others like England & Scotland and the Dutch Republic will also want to diminish Habsburg dominance a bit.
France could get bits of the Southern Netherlands, but its’ major allies do not want France to get the entire region. So I could see France getting bits of the Southern Netherlands (roughly like IOTL) and the duchies of Lorraine & Bar (which were frequently occupied by France during this period); with the (former) duke of Lorraine & Bar getting the rest of the Southern Netherlands in compensation.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Habsburgs would grow in power after conquest of Hungary, so there should be some compensations for other powers, but details would depend on personality of the emperor. IOTL Leopold was more concerned about Milan than about Spanish throne for younger son. Lorraine for France would be more acceptable for Dutch and English than Southern Netherlands, so such deal seems likely. But still, such big issue as inheritance of Spanish Crown makes another French-Habsburg war almost certain.