Enduring Protestantism in Poland?

[proximefactum]

WI Poland, like Hungary, maintained a significant Protestant population to the current day? Poland today is a bulwark of Roman Catholicism, perhaps to fanaticism at times. Protestant communities exist, but are very small in number. What would it take to sustain a larger historical Lutheran and/or Calvinist presence in present day Polish borders? Redrawing the WW II-Polish borders to include Lutheran Germans doesn't count.

Perhaps the greatest challenge is to butterfly away the Jesuit counterreformation. Another challenge would be to Protestantize a sizeable hunk of the 16th century Polish nobility and maintain a high level of Protestantization among the higher classes. [1], [2] Also plausible is a "milder Reformation" situation: maintain Roman Catholic liturgy but incorporate Protestant theological elements within a "Church of Poland" independent of Rome. I could particularly see a Catholic-Lutheran hybrid not unlike the Scandinavian reformation, particularly Sweden.

A friend of mine once remarked that the (sometimes) hyper-Catholicism of the Poles has resulted from their being thown back and forth politically between Protestant Prussia and Orthodox Russia. I think that his observation that Catholicity maintained Polish identity throughout the centuries is apt, though troubled in many respects.

Two relevant points by Polish Eagle:
[1] https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=2676160&postcount=11
[2] https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=2678486&postcount=19

 

[seraphim74]

Eliminate Sigismund III as king of Poland. Perhaps keep Stephen Bathory alive about 10-15 years longer - till deposal of Sigismund by Swedish Riksdag. Considering his Catholic fervor it was prety much unevitable, altough it might take a little longer, since Sigismund would have remained in Sweden all the time. Anyway, a monarch starting internal troubles in his own kingdom would not have been an interesting candidate in eyes of Polish-Lithuanian noblemen. Meanwhile Bathory, while himself a Catholic, supported policy of tolerance, which might have resulted in Polish protestants more loyal to the king and not willing to look for support abroad.
If possible find some protestant magnat(s) willing to fund a protestant educational system as a competition to Jesuits' schools which provided most of education for Polish-Lithuanian noblemen IOTL.

 

[proximefactum]

Eliminate Sigismund III as king of Poland. Perhaps keep Stephen Bathory alive about 10-15 years longer - till deposal of Sigismund by Swedish Riksdag. Considering his Catholic fervor it was prety much unevitable, altough it might take a little longer, since Sigismund would have remained in Sweden all the time. Anyway, a monarch starting internal troubles in his own kingdom would not have been an interesting candidate in eyes of Polish-Lithuanian noblemen. Meanwhile Bathory, while himself a Catholic, supported policy of tolerance, which might have resulted in Polish protestants more loyal to the king and not willing to look for support abroad. If possible find some protestant magnat(s) willing to fund a protestant educational system as a competition to Jesuits' schools which provided most of education for Polish-Lithuanian noblemen IOTL.

As for Sigismund, I know little outside of his Catholic tendencies. I have read (perhaps wrongly) that he tried to impose a new Swedish liturgy that restored more Catholic aspects, only to fail (perhaps this was part of the Riksdag's rational for ejecting Sigismund?). Suppose Sigismund was successful in (re)catholicizing Sweden to a significant degree and didn't get the boot. Would that strengthen the Catholic position in Poland, or merely generate change and dissent in Scandinavia?

The alternate educational system is a bold idea, but one that can't exist without an extended Bathory reign, as you well note. I am skeptical that Bathory could have imposed true religious freedom in Poland-Lithuania, given the weighty papal influence over the gentry. I would not be surprised if many Protestants within the Commonwealth were barred Protestant education and even the right of assembly. But a cadre of Polish Protestant nobles against all odds would ensure in the least that Protestants would have safe havens within Polish lands.

 

[abas]

Eliminate Sigismund III as king of Poland. Perhaps keep Stephen Bathory alive about 10-15 years longer - till deposal of Sigismund by Swedish Riksdag. Considering his Catholic fervor it was prety much unevitable, altough it might take a little longer, since Sigismund would have remained in Sweden all the time. Anyway, a monarch starting internal troubles in his own kingdom would not have been an interesting candidate in eyes of Polish-Lithuanian noblemen. Meanwhile Bathory, while himself a Catholic, supported policy of tolerance, which might have resulted in Polish protestants more loyal to the king and not willing to look for support abroad.
If possible find some protestant magnat(s) willing to fund a protestant educational system as a competition to Jesuits' schools which provided most of education for Polish-Lithuanian noblemen IOTL.

Not the least reason to elect Sigismund Vasa was his connection with Jagelon dynasty.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by proximefactum.

I am skeptical that Bathory could have imposed true religious freedom in Poland-Lithuania, given the weighty papal influence over the gentry.

He didn't have to. It was already there. In 1573 Polish and Lithuanian nobles signed the Warsaw Confederation - a guarantee of freedom of religion in PLC. One of the reason they did it was the St. Bartholomew's Day Massacre in France and religious wars all over Europe. Nobles of the PLC didn't want anything like that in their backyard and despite protests of the Catholic Church the Confederation was later included into the Henrician articles every elected king of Poland had to respect. Bathory swore to respect it and indeed he reacted quickly in case of any religious riots - even if he had to act against Catholics.
Even earlier king Sigismund II Augustus (Zugmunt August, the last of the Jagiellon dynasty) declared: "I do not wish to be a king of your consciences". Poland and Lithuania had quite a lot non-Catholic citizens (Protestants, Orthodox, Jews, Muslims) so a religious war might be even more terryfing than in other countries - it might have been a war on many fronts. Nobody actually wanted that.

 

[abas]

The alternate educational system is a bold idea, but one that can't exist without an extended Bathory reign, as you well note. I am skeptical that Bathory could have imposed true religious freedom in Poland-Lithuania, given the weighty papal influence over the gentry.

But he really did this, or more correctly he didn't interfere in religious affairs.

I would not be surprised if many Protestants within the Commonwealth were barred Protestant education and even the right of assembly. But a cadre of Polish Protestant nobles against all odds would ensure in the least that Protestants would have safe havens within Polish lands.

They didn't barred neither save for Arians. Sigimund restricted career for Protestants and gave protection to fanatical Catholics from courts for violence on religious ground. Neither was case under Bathory.