Forgive me if this is implausible, but it's the first time I've ever put any serious effort into a timeline such as this. Not long enough for it's own thread, I don't think, but I implore you to try and suspend your disbelief in some areas for the sake of my sanity
A Similar Yet Different World
POD: Better leadership of Mexico during the 1840s
RESULT: Mexico doesn’t lose the massive swathes of territory that it lost in OTL: Rather it cedes all of Texas east of the Rio Grande and alters its northern border with the United States to run east along the 38th parallel.
Because of this setback in America’s
manifest destiny, the Oregon situation becomes more heated and the United States begins pushing for more authority in the region. However the British, in the years following the end of the Mexican-American War, began investing heavily into Mexico and had formed a sort of quasi-alliance.
Due to the geopolitical circumstances of the situation, the crisis was enlarged and lasted a lot longer than in OTL, with war seeming like an ever more likely occurrence. However in the 1850s the British took a larger interest in the Kingdom of Hawaii due to its convenient location between the East Indies and Vancouver Island, which was receiving the bulk of British settlement in Oregon. They declared Hawaii a British protectorate (which would be downgraded to a colony in the early 20th Century) in 1856 and began using it as an important naval base (the island chain extending west was annexed in the following years).
Having lucked out in Pacific expansion now, as well as their peace with Mexico being less than ideal, the USA offered Britain a temporary lift on the Monroe Doctrine so that the British may find an alternative access to the Pacific. British delegates agreed to at least survey Panama to see if the prospect of a canal was still a valid idea (the earliest imaginings on such a thing dating back to the 16th Century), and acquired the president of Colombia’s permission to do so. They were happy with what they found, and in exchange for surrendering the Oregon to the USA the British were allowed to effectively govern the Isthmus of Panama (the Colombian government was none too happy about these arrangements, but in their minds they were getting a cut of the wealth – in reality the endeavour was hugely dominated by British investors and the Colombians received very little). Panama was annexed in its entirety in 1892.
By having less success in the Mexican-American War, the United States ended up relaxing their hardliner stance on European colonialism in the Americas simply so they win a ‘victory’ against one of these imperial powers.
THE BUTTERFLIES
THE REVOLUTIONS OF 1848: The political upheavals that plagued Europe during the late 1840s saw a massive rise in nationalism that resulted in many countries coming into existence that didn’t exist before. Unlike in OTL, the 1848 Revolutions were more successful in places, such as the Hapsburg Empire, where the Hungarians managed to restore their national independence as the Kingdom of Hungary. This was because unlike in OTL, there was a massive uprising in Congress Poland and Russia could not send the 300,000 troops into Hungary to impose martial law and keep the Austrian Empire intact.
In France, the revolutions caused a political upheaval which would have repercussions all through the 19th Century, including the loss of Alsace-Lorraine to Germany (and subsequently Luxembourg) and their general weakening of overseas influence for quite some time.
Likewise, the revolutions spurred on Italian nationalism to the point of unification. Piedmontese troops marched into Lombardy and Venetia during the chaos in the Austrian Empire, and then south to Tuscany and the other Italian states, eventually forming the Federal Kingdom of Italy. The collapse of Bourbon rule in Sicily led to Sicilian annexation as well, and in the 1850s an all-out collapse of the Bourbon monarchy in Naples allowed the Italian troops to enter the city and annex Naples too (under a Savoyard monarch).
In Germany, the revolutions caused the unification of the northern German states into the Empire of Germany (or Kaiserreich) under a Hohenzollern monarch (led by Prussia). The South German states would later be added one by one throughout the 1850s and 1860s, while Austria retained its independence due to being heavily Catholic and an ally of France and Russia.
Also unlike OTL, the revolutions spread to the Balkans and the Ottoman Empire – a Serbian rebellion spread from Belgrade and into Bosnia, a majority-Islamic Slavic state which ended up merging into the Croat uprising in Austria (supported by Piedmont who had designs on Dalmatia). The revolutions also led to the unification of the Kingdom of Rumania, the expansions of Serbia and Montenegro and a popular Greek uprising that spread to Thracia. At the end of it all, the Turks were forced to grant Bulgaria autonomy within the empire and cede much territory to the new Kingdom of Croatia-Bosnia, Kingdom of Serbia and the Principality of Montenegro, as well as the Kingdom of the Hellenes (Greece). However this would prove to have positive repercussions for the Ottomans who took this as a sign to reform.
The 1848 Spring of Nations also spread to the Americas. While the USA and Mexico were busy consolidating their gains and making peace with each other (and Britain), trouble was stirring elsewhere such as in the Central American republics, Chile and Brazil. Local uprisings in Chile caused the collapse of the government and a period of instability – when they later tried to wage war against Bolivia in the 1870s for the Bolivian coast, they lost and entered a period of civil unrest. Likewise, Brazil faced a nativist revolt in its eastern province of Pernambuco. The revolt was supported by the liberal factions whom the emperor had deemed unfit to govern (for their ineffective governing) and replaced with a conservative government. The revolt lasted until early 1849, but resulted in a period of internal peace leading right up until the 20th Century.
THE SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA
Throughout the 19th Century European traders had been starting up colonies all along the coasts of Africa, but eventually a time came in 1885 when the various claims began overlapping and conflict seemed imminent. Combined with this were the British consolidation of Egypt as their sphere of influence, and the conquest of the Sudan, which made the other powers nervous of a British monopoly in Africa. A conference was called by the German Kaiser to be held in Berlin, where the colonial powers would divide Africa (and the Pacific) among themselves. The conference, referred to as the Berlin Agreement, forced Britain to recognise the American colony of Victory Bay (OTL Walvis Bay) and their colony of Liberia (which served a similar purpose to the British protectorate of Sierra Leone, in that it was governed by freed slaves). Britain also recognised France’s small colony in Southeast Africa (they purchased Maputo from the Portuguese and started their own colony there) in exchange for France dropping her claims to northern Madagascar (Tsimihety Protectorate).
The conference also divided Abyssinia into British and Italian spheres of influence. Because of the relative stability the Federal Kingdom of Italy had enjoyed (and the reasonably large industrial boost) Italy was in a much stronger position over the Horn of Africa. Britain also purchased the Turkana Strip (otherwise known as British East Africa) from Germany, giving them rail access from Cairo to the Indian Ocean when the Red Sea was inaccessible.
In the latter half of the 19th Century the Italians made more gains against the Ottoman Empire by purchasing the provinces of Tunisia and Tripolitania – they later annexed Albania, Ionia and Crete during a short-lived revolt in Crete, and then invaded the remainder of Libya (Cyrenaica and Libya) during the short Italo-Turkish War in the early 20th Century.
Spain also experienced its own set of troubles during the Scramble for Africa – despite only making relatively useless gains in Equatorial Africa and the Western Sahara, they made an attempt at conquering Morocco in the 1890s. But halfway through their invasion, there was a rebellion in Cuba. The Cubans decided they wanted independence, more rights or annexation by the United States into what they saw as the ultimate bastion of freedom and democracy (in actuality the United States is a rather racist society, just less so towards Hispanics and Mestizos). In a panic, and with half their military might being poured into Morocco, the Spaniards offered the United States Cuba for a large sum of money that would go into funding their seemingly hapless campaign into Morocco. The attempt succeeded, and American troops occupied the island of Cuba in 1898. Cuba became a state in 1913. However Spain’s economy was thoroughly drained by the end of the Moroccan War, and they were forced to make further sales later on, including the sale of the Philippines to the highest bidder (which happened to be Italy) and their Pacific islands to Italy and Germany.
Because of the 1848 Revolutions in France, the French found themselves in an awkward spot when it came to Africa. While they were determined to grab as much of the Sahara as they could (to complete a railroad from Algiers, which they annexed in the late 1850s, to Cotonou in Dahomey and west to Dakar in Senegal), they were hindered by the massive expansion of Britain’s Sahel colony, which also cut France’s dream of a large colony on the Ivory Coast short as well. In fact, France’s Ivory Coast colony consisted of only the coast, and served as a backwater naval stop-off for ships on their way to Madagascar and the east. Because they struggled so much to stake their claims to the vast Sahara desert, the French missed out on gaining anymore influence in Northern Africa – Italy gained Tunisia, and Spain hurriedly declared Morocco their sphere of influence (though did nothing about that until the 1890s). Coupled with their expensive conquests in Indochina, France was lucky to survive in Africa at all.
Unlike in OTL, the United States also colonised relatively large areas of Africa too. Starting with their two minor colonies of Liberia (a state for freed slaves) and Victory Bay (a coaling station that would develop into a popular tourist destination), the United States began a process of interfering in European affairs. As part of the conference, however, they were forced to allow Britain to colonise the rest of the Namib desert and the Skeleton Coast, but later became the most willing contender to the occupation of the Congo (which the British contested by quickly establishing a protectorate over the Kingdom of Katanga). Although the Portuguese were awarded the mouth of the river (due to their protectorate over the Kongo Kingdom) the Americans received the majority of the territory.
THE DECLINE OF THE QING EMPIRE AND THE GREAT GAME
In this timeline Russia’s resolve in the Great Game was greatly heightened by the time of the Taiping Rebellion. The rebellion started by forming the Heavenly Kingdom of Great Peace around the city of Nanjing and quickly spread throughout southern China, against the rule of the Manchu Qing Empire. The revolt sought the abolishment of Confucianism, Buddhism and local folk religions and the establishment of a Christian China. The ensuing civil war was caused mostly by the meddling of European powers – Britain and France mostly supported the Qing who were open to European trade and influence, while Russia, who had territorial designs on the empire, supported the rebellion.
The civil war waged on straight from the late 1850s all the way to the 1870s and saw the rise of many prominent warlords and the birth of dozens of new nations. Mongolia was among them, who out of pot-luck had its leadership usurped and replaced by a prominent and powerful Chinese warlord who later led the country into a massive expansion. While the Mongolian Empire is hardly Mongolian anymore, it managed to grab thin slice of coastal territory into the Yellow Sea. Tibet also gained its independence after the civil war and annexed a chunk of central China to prevent it from falling to warlords and to try and maintain a sense of Buddhist peace in the region. Elsewhere, a sense of normalcy was returning with the rebellion slowing petering out, Formosa annexed by the British, Germans beginning to clamour for concessions and the Russian annexation of Manchuria and Korea. Japan quickly signed an alliance with Britain, the closest European power in the region who was also struggling against Russian advances in Central Asia.
In the end the Qing remained in power over little of eastern China while the Heavenly Kingdom of Peace, otherwise referred to as Nanjing China, succeeded in unifying the south. The Qing Empire was forced to accept European terms for their unsuccessful aid, which involved giving Germany Tsingtao and France Weihaiwei, as well as spheres of influence in the Yellow Sea area.
Elsewhere, Russian opinion was massively in favour of the current Tsar who had led the Russian Empire in a war of conquest against China. Their colonial ambitions quickly turned south with the rapid annexation of many Central Asian kingdoms and tribal lands, leading right to the border of the British Raj. The British hastily set up an independent kingdom along the Indus River to act as a ‘neutral’ buffer between themselves and the Russian Empire. Kashmir was spared from outright annexation as well, especially because the Russians had a lot of influence in Uyghuristan (or East Turkestan). In their hurry, the British also supported the Kingdom of Balochistan against Persia and increased their influence in the Persian Gulf by establishing a protectorate over the Trucial Emirates from the declining Empire of Muscat.
THE WORLD TODAY
As it stands, the map shows the world in 1915 – while no true alliances stand between the great powers, nominal treaties have outlined the balance of power – continentally Germany is a powerhouse with trade agreements with Austria, the Balkans, Hungary, Denmark and the Netherlands, while France is sitting quietly hoping that no wars break out. Little Belgium remains as neutral as Switzerland and is fervently supported by Britain.
In the rest of the world, British naval supremacy has not faltered, even in the face of the fast-expanding High Seas Fleet, which is starting to become a sore point between Germany and Great Britain. The USA is also a rising naval power with more and more people moving into Victory Bay, which is fast becoming one of the most developed places in Africa. Things are also still very tense between Russia and Britain, as Russia continues to test the waters by signing trade agreements with Persia and investing in a railway.
China has finally stabilised, but the Chinese Empire is hardly democratic, and none of the European powers will be willing to step in if things go pear-shaped. Japan is also a rising power in the east, and is predicted to surpass European influence in China.
While it doesn’t look like war could be on the horizon, their definitely are those who feel like it’s going to happen, as the balance of power isn’t all that balanced anymore at all.
MAP TO FOLLOW