Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing

[Thande]

"Boris Johnson is a merry fellow! Bright Blue his rosette is, and his hair is yellow!"

Alright, not many things posted on here actually make me laugh out loud Well done.

Would that be Galadriel's Lament ?

"For now the Kindler, Varda, the Queen of the Stars,
from Mount Everwhite has uplifted her hands like clouds,
and all paths are drowned deep in shadow;
and out of a grey country darkness lies on the foaming waves between us,
and mist covers the jewels of Calacirya for ever.
Now lost, lost to those from the East is Valimar!"


Cheers,
Nigel.

Nice work.

While it's not the same Ring, the whole business does remind me of Galadriel's line: "In place of the Dark Lord you will set up a Queen. And I shall not be dark, but beautiful and terrible as the Morning and the Night! Fair as the Sea and the Sun and the Snow upon the Mountain! Dreadful as the Storm and Lightning! Stronger than the foundations of the earth. All shall love me and despair!"

And now I wonder if her Ring has tengwar text on it reading "Keep Calm and Carry On"

 

[NCW8]

Bingo! 10 Tolkien points to Nigel.

Thanks ! I'll treasure them always.

When I was writing this post, for some reason I kept wanting to type "Galadriel's Lamont".

Alright, not many things posted on here actually make me laugh out loud Well done.

Glad you liked it !

And now I wonder if her Ring has tengwar text on it reading "Keep Calm and Carry On"

Cheers,
Nigel.

 

[AndyC]

Alright, not many things posted on here actually make me laugh out loud Well done.

Me too!

Nice work.

While it's not the same Ring, the whole business does remind me of Galadriel's line: "In place of the Dark Lord you will set up a Queen. And I shall not be dark, but beautiful and terrible as the Morning and the Night! Fair as the Sea and the Sun and the Snow upon the Mountain! Dreadful as the Storm and Lightning! Stronger than the foundations of the earth. All shall love me and despair!"

And there's the reason behind the reference!
(Extra Tolkien points to Thande (unsurprisingly) as well)

Galadriel started from a point of pride in power, where she wouldn't have hesitated to take up the Ring. Over time, her pride lessened and her wisdom grew, until at the crucial point, she had wisdom enough to pass by the Ring and acquiesce in Gandalf's (ostensibly) hopeless plan - to abjure the power from the Ring, to do as much as the Incarnate's could do against the hopeless cause, to get the Ring into the position where chance could strike ... and rely that Eru would not let there be no way out. In essence, to rely that God would intercede by putting His finger on the scales enough to make it work.

Her lament and farewell (Namarie) was with all this in mind, and that's where the quote was taken.

Elizabeth, on the other hand, started in wisdom and acquiescence to what was right, but as she grew older and weaker and a great threat rose up, linked with a Great Ring, she went the other way and took up a Ring to fight fire with fire. Which is the tragedy.


All of which is a heck of a lot to freight a single reference with, to be fair

 

[The Professor]

ooh!

Currently my desire for monarchial glory is warring with my desire for sensibility!

 

[iainbhx]

I have managed to complete the STV notionals for Wales now

Lab 22, LDm 8, Con 7, PC 3

There are four marginals

Alyn & Wrescam returns 1 Lab (safe), 1 Con, but the Con could be replaced by a LDm

Merthyr, Rhymney and Cynon to my surprise returns 1 Lab (Safe), 1 LDm, but a handful of votes would turn it to 2 Lab.

Caerphilly and Llandaff (Cardiff N) again surprised me by returning 1 Lab (Safe), 1 LDm, but the Tories would take the LDm seat quite easily

Newport W & Torfaen returns 1 Lab (Safe) 1 LDm with the Tories well placed as well.

Only 1 seat pair (Ceredigion-Dwyfor) does not return a Labour MP, nor is it very likely to. 3 seat pairs return 2 Lab (Aberavon-Swansea E; Rhondda-Ogmore, Islwyn-Blaenau Gwent).

 

[Thande]

I have managed to complete the STV notionals for Wales now

Lab 22, LDm 8, Con 7, PC 3

There are four marginals

Alyn & Wrescam returns 1 Lab (safe), 1 Con, but the Con could be replaced by a LDm

Merthyr, Rhymney and Cynon to my surprise returns 1 Lab (Safe), 1 LDm, but a handful of votes would turn it to 2 Lab.

Caerphilly and Llandaff (Cardiff N) again surprised me by returning 1 Lab (Safe), 1 LDm, but the Tories would take the LDm seat quite easily

Newport W & Torfaen returns 1 Lab (Safe) 1 LDm with the Tories well placed as well.

Only 1 seat pair (Ceredigion-Dwyfor) does not return a Labour MP, nor is it very likely to. 3 seat pairs return 2 Lab (Aberavon-Swansea E; Rhondda-Ogmore, Islwyn-Blaenau Gwent).

So a bit better for the Lib Dems and a bit worse for Labour than OTL 2010, but basically of the same order. So far at least it looks as though Cameron's Cunning Plan is working to restore the country to something resembling its pre-Fourth Lectern state.

 

[LancyIain]

So a bit better for the Lib Dems and a bit worse for Labour than OTL 2010, but basically of the same order. So far at least it looks as though Cameron's Cunning Plan is working to restore the country to something resembling its pre-Fourth Lectern state.

Plaid seem to be the losers in Wales compared to Lecturnverse 2011. Their fourth seat appears to be gone with little prospect of getting it back, assuming that the BES actually reflects the reality of how people would vote when transfers of votes are possible. The SNP, despite their distrust of the system, get a much better deal out of it apparently, since they are poised to double their seat total, largely at Labour's expense. They are apparently the big winners in Scotland from this two member STV system.

I'll be very interested to see the nationals for England when Iain gets finished with them. Done on a region by region basis for ease, perhaps?

 

[iainbhx]

Plaid seem to be the losers in Wales compared to Lecturnverse 2011. Their fourth seat appears to be gone with little prospect of getting it back, assuming that the BES actually reflects the reality of how people would vote when transfers of votes are possible. The SNP, despite their distrust of the system, get a much better deal out of it apparently, since they are poised to double their seat total, largely at Labour's expense. They are apparently the big winners in Scotland from this two member STV system.

I'll be very interested to see the nationals for England when Iain gets finished with them. Done on a region by region basis for ease, perhaps?

Plaid's problem is that they are feast or famine. They could take both Ynys Mon and Arfon, but they don't get 2 quotas out of it. The parings are almost cruel - although if you want cruel :

Montgomery & South Clwyd: 1 Lab, 1 Con - both safe. Because Montgomery is smaller seat, there's just not enough Liberal votes to even put them in contention. Labour are lucky with transfers in Wales, much luckier than England.

They are being done region by region for sanity as well as ease.

 

[OwenM]

Would someone mind telling me who Clwyd West's in with and who my MPs would be?

 

[iainbhx]

Would someone mind telling me who Clwyd West's in with and who my MPs would be?

Clwyd West is in with Aberconwy. It's 1 Con, 1 Lab with a Lib Dem trailing in a distant third. Both the Conservative and Labour candidates would be elected from the Clwyd West part of the seat.

 

[OwenM]

Hmm. Not surprising given how small an electorate Aberconwy has. I would guess the (defeated) Labour candidate in Clwyd West was Crispin Jones, the 2011 Assembly candidate, rather than either Donna Hutton (the 2010 candidate) or Gareth Thomas (the former MP and candidate for the next election). Not sure who the Aberconwy Labour candidate would be - checking Wikipedia, the last-minute replacement candidate for the Assembly that year was Eifion Wyn Williams, who I know nothing else about - he might get pushed into standing again.

 

[AndyC]

I have managed to complete the STV notionals for Wales now

Lab 22, LDm 8, Con 7, PC 3

There are four marginals

Alyn & Wrescam returns 1 Lab (safe), 1 Con, but the Con could be replaced by a LDm

Merthyr, Rhymney and Cynon to my surprise returns 1 Lab (Safe), 1 LDm, but a handful of votes would turn it to 2 Lab.

Caerphilly and Llandaff (Cardiff N) again surprised me by returning 1 Lab (Safe), 1 LDm, but the Tories would take the LDm seat quite easily

Newport W & Torfaen returns 1 Lab (Safe) 1 LDm with the Tories well placed as well.

Only 1 seat pair (Ceredigion-Dwyfor) does not return a Labour MP, nor is it very likely to. 3 seat pairs return 2 Lab (Aberavon-Swansea E; Rhondda-Ogmore, Islwyn-Blaenau Gwent).

Very interesting. That compares to Lab 25, LD 3, Con 8, Plaid 4 in TTL's 2011 GE. So Lab, as dominant, loses only 3, Plaid are actually down one, Con lose one and the LDs gain 5. All of which wouldn't be a big issue for Cameron, and Labour have 21 almost-completely-safe seats in the bank to prevent further meltdown - which is only 4 down on the TTL GE.

 

[AndyC]

I have completed the notional STV Scottish seats, which are probably the most complex of the ones to do.

The notional seats are Labour 29, LDm 14, SNP 13, Con 3.

The words "passing quota" are virtually unheard of, contests usually go through to elimination. 10 of the seats manage some form of marginality.

Caithness, Sutherland and the Northern Isles - elects 1LDm (safe) and 1 SNP, it is possible to get 2LDm here.

Banff, Buchan and Moray elects 1 SNP (Safe) and 1 Con, it is possible to get 2 SNP here

Inverness, Ross, Skye and Strathspey elects 1 SNP and 1 LDm, it is possible for it to elect 2 LDm, although it is more likely it will just change the LDm. Oh and Beaker beats Charlie, which wouldn't happen in real life.

Kirkcaldy, Cowdenbeath and Dunfermline elects 1 Lab and 1 LDm, it could easily elect 2 Lab

Livingston and Pentlands elects 1 Lab (Safe) and 1 LDm, it could elect an SNP

Paisley, North Renfrewshire and Anniesland is fascinating, there is a safe Labour seat, it will also elect an SNP, but that seat could be a LDm or a second Labour. It is incredibly tight at several points in the process.

Eastwood and Cathcart will elect 2 Labour, the second Labour is extremely marginal and just requires 10 more Tory votes to flip it.

Glasgow Central, Rutherglen and West Hamilton will elect a Labour and amazingly a LDm, the LDm seat could be SNP or a second Lab seat very easily

Lanark, East Kilbride and East Hamilton elects a Lab and an SNP, it could elect 2 Lab but it is only just marginal

Airdrie & Motherwell elects 2 Labour, it could elect an SNP.

Excellent work and a belated many thanks from me.
3/29/14/13 compares with 1/39/13/6 in TTL's GE, so Labour do, as expected, get rather burned here, losing 10 seats from the General Election, with Tories up 2, LDs just about up, and the SNP cruising nicely - but with a probable ceiling of 16 MPs - breaking through would be very hard.
Labour lose those 10 MPs, but at least ensure that their probable floor is 27 seats and can get up to 31 plausibly enough.

The Cameron Masterplan of locking in a probable safe floor for the Big Two is looking fairly good so far

 

[Thande]

All of which wouldn't be a big issue for Cameron,

It does illustrate how much the goalposts have been moved that the big two are okay with the idea of the Lib Dems gaining that many seats as a consequence of this system. Without actually entering government in TTL, the Lib Dems have already transitioned to being a safe reliable party of the establishment in contrast to UKIP or the Greens.

 

[LancyIain]

It does illustrate how much the goalposts have been moved that the big two are okay with the idea of the Lib Dems gaining that many seats as a consequence of this system. Without actually entering government in TTL, the Lib Dems have already transitioned to being a safe reliable party of the establishment in contrast to UKIP or the Greens.

Of course, judging from the figures for Scotland and Wales (and I expect that in the South and East of England a similar pattern to Scotland emerges, except it's the Conservatives that lose out), the Cameron Master Plan (tm) has made it just about impossible for a government to be run without the LibDems.

I wonder how much that would lead to resentment on the part of both Labour and Conservative politicians and members. Would they come to dislike the party even more if their electoral fate comes to be solely at the whim of the third party? Down the line, perhaps both will recommend that their supporters place the LibDems far down the rankings as far as transfers go in an attempt to limit the Yellow Kingmakers.

 

[Thande]

Of course, judging from the figures for Scotland and Wales (and I expect that in the South and East of England a similar pattern to Scotland emerges, except it's the Conservatives that lose out), the Cameron Master Plan (tm) has made it just about impossible for a government to be run without the LibDems.

I wonder how much that would lead to resentment on the part of both Labour and Conservative politicians and members. Would they come to dislike the party even more if their electoral fate comes to be solely at the whim of the third party? Down the line, perhaps both will recommend that their supporters place the LibDems far down the rankings as far as transfers go in an attempt to limit the Yellow Kingmakers.

There's a joke in there somewhere about The King in Yellow...

Good point overall. The Lib Dems may achieve their old dream of being the FDP in Germany--i.e. can't form a government without them. Providing, of course, that they don't end up how the FDP now has

 

[Thoresby]

There's a joke in there somewhere about The King in Yellow...

Good point overall. The Lib Dems may achieve their old dream of being the FDP in Germany--i.e. can't form a government without them. Providing, of course, that they don't end up how the FDP now has

But the FDP had a much more distinctive position as a Liberal alternative to the more Statist SDP and CDU. The Lib Dems in contrast are such the moderate wings of Labour and the Tories with a dash of Europhillia and penchant for beardsl.
I'm not convinced about the long term viability of them being a Coalition Kingmaker. Sooner or later being constantly in government and switching from right to left means you'll be regarded as a bunch of opportunists without a distinctive message and then you're doomed.

 

[Kosh]

Thank you

AndyC,

Just wanted to add my thanks and appreciation to a great story. It's even re-kindled my interest in politics.

Loved the Alt-ASB ending too. Would definitely read a thread based on that.

Thanks. Kosh.

 

[AndyC]

Thanks to everyone who voted for this TL: we won!



In other news, I've been looking at modelling the STV landscape, and crikey, it's difficult to automate. I don't think I can even do it in Excel; I'd have to crank out a Matlab program (and serious thanks to iainbhx who's modelling the last Lectiverse election under the new system by hand!)

 

[LancyIain]

Thanks to everyone who voted for this TL: we won!



In other news, I've been looking at modelling the STV landscape, and crikey, it's difficult to automate. I don't think I can even do it in Excel; I'd have to crank out a Matlab program (and serious thanks to iainbhx who's modelling the last Lectiverse election under the new system by hand!)

Does this mean you are making preparations for continuing on into the next election? I do hope so! Congratulations both on the victory and on making a system complex enough to break Excel.