Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing

[AndyC]

Does this mean you are making preparations for continuing on into the next election? I do hope so! Congratulations both on the victory and on making a system complex enough to break Excel.

I think it's way to soon to consider another sequel!

And ... I think I've come up with an Excel-based way of modelling it. Well, to a reasonable level of verismilitude (given the changes in the system, there are so many potential factors that are unknowable, like how many LD voters across both constituencies place, say LD#1 first versus LD#2, or even how many split their vote LD#1, Con#1, LD#2), anyway.

It'll be a monster of a spreadsheet, mind you. I'll build it bit by bit when I'm bored of other things

 

[OwenM]

Out of curiosity, how have you been modelling it in Excel?

 

[AndyC]

Out of curiosity, how have you been modelling it in Excel?

Still not certain that it is doable; I'll find out soon .

Given that there are unmodellable elements (how many first preference votes for Charles Kennedy and how many for Danny Alexander in the combined Ross, Skye, Cromarty, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey constituency (and yes, that's one of them and a contender for longest name) if all voters across both constituency could freely choose?, for example), and given that there will be inaccuracies (split-ticket voting will mean that simply summing the votes for a party and assuming they'd split between the two candidates as 1-2 will be inaccurate; in Ireland, you get about a 30% non-party-transfer level) ... and so on, it's always going to be an approximation (also, second and third preferences will vary not only region to region, but constituency to constituency).

What I've done is assume that splits away will approximately balance splits in (an oversimplification, but, hey), and added the votes together for the two constituencies. If Party A gets past the threshold for one seat, we'll assume that they'll pick one seat up at least and look at the surplus as the vote for member 2.

Then start knocking out people (usually "Other" first). I've got to the stage of successfully doing that regardless of party and getting the outcome from the first knockout stage (ie after surplus and first elimination) by using If statements and having every possibility in a separate column, which is zeroed "if" that column is not the one to be used and the correct output if it is; with those columns added together to get the result from that step. The next step will have, however, a multiple of those possibilities in the possibility tree, so that might make it implausible to model.

(ie, there are seven or eight potential outcomes for "first knocked out"; there are 42-56 options for "1st and second knocked out" and 210-336 options for "1st, 2nd and 3rd knocked out". If I assume that "Other" will be first knocked out each time, however (and manually intervene in the very few cases where this isn't the case), it becomes more manageable, with 7-8 options for 1st and 2nd knocked out and 42-56 options for 1st,2nd and 3rd knocked out.

If that makes any sense at all ....

 

[LancyIain]

Still not certain that it is doable; I'll find out soon .

Given that there are unmodellable elements (how many first preference votes for Charles Kennedy and how many for Danny Alexander in the combined Ross, Skye, Cromarty, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey constituency (and yes, that's one of them and a contender for longest name) if all voters across both constituency could freely choose?, for example), and given that there will be inaccuracies (split-ticket voting will mean that simply summing the votes for a party and assuming they'd split between the two candidates as 1-2 will be inaccurate; in Ireland, you get about a 30% non-party-transfer level) ... and so on, it's always going to be an approximation (also, second and third preferences will vary not only region to region, but constituency to constituency).

What I've done is assume that splits away will approximately balance splits in (an oversimplification, but, hey), and added the votes together for the two constituencies. If Party A gets past the threshold for one seat, we'll assume that they'll pick one seat up at least and look at the surplus as the vote for member 2.

Then start knocking out people (usually "Other" first). I've got to the stage of successfully doing that regardless of party and getting the outcome from the first knockout stage (ie after surplus and first elimination) by using If statements and having every possibility in a separate column, which is zeroed "if" that column is not the one to be used and the correct output if it is; with those columns added together to get the result from that step. The next step will have, however, a multiple of those possibilities in the possibility tree, so that might make it implausible to model.

(ie, there are seven or eight potential outcomes for "first knocked out"; there are 42-56 options for "1st and second knocked out" and 210-336 options for "1st, 2nd and 3rd knocked out". If I assume that "Other" will be first knocked out each time, however (and manually intervene in the very few cases where this isn't the case), it becomes more manageable, with 7-8 options for 1st and 2nd knocked out and 42-56 options for 1st,2nd and 3rd knocked out.

If that makes any sense at all ....

You are one of the few people who could write and talk about such things and make it seem that they are having great fun in doing them. It may be too soon for you to be thinking about a sequel, but I think you are enjoying the statistical fiddling about regardless of whether or not you will ever reach that stage.

 

[OwenM]

Still not certain that it is doable; I'll find out soon .

Given that there are unmodellable elements (how many first preference votes for Charles Kennedy and how many for Danny Alexander in the combined Ross, Skye, Cromarty, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey constituency (and yes, that's one of them and a contender for longest name) if all voters across both constituency could freely choose?, for example), and given that there will be inaccuracies (split-ticket voting will mean that simply summing the votes for a party and assuming they'd split between the two candidates as 1-2 will be inaccurate; in Ireland, you get about a 30% non-party-transfer level) ... and so on, it's always going to be an approximation (also, second and third preferences will vary not only region to region, but constituency to constituency).

What I've done is assume that splits away will approximately balance splits in (an oversimplification, but, hey), and added the votes together for the two constituencies. If Party A gets past the threshold for one seat, we'll assume that they'll pick one seat up at least and look at the surplus as the vote for member 2.

Then start knocking out people (usually "Other" first). I've got to the stage of successfully doing that regardless of party and getting the outcome from the first knockout stage (ie after surplus and first elimination) by using If statements and having every possibility in a separate column, which is zeroed "if" that column is not the one to be used and the correct output if it is; with those columns added together to get the result from that step. The next step will have, however, a multiple of those possibilities in the possibility tree, so that might make it implausible to model.

(ie, there are seven or eight potential outcomes for "first knocked out"; there are 42-56 options for "1st and second knocked out" and 210-336 options for "1st, 2nd and 3rd knocked out". If I assume that "Other" will be first knocked out each time, however (and manually intervene in the very few cases where this isn't the case), it becomes more manageable, with 7-8 options for 1st and 2nd knocked out and 42-56 options for 1st,2nd and 3rd knocked out.

If that makes any sense at all ....

Erm, very interesting, but I actually meant for FPTP.
And yeah, that largely made sense, in a "I can sort of see what you're doing but would have no hope of copying it"-type way.

 

[Thande]

Congratulations on the victory and as always we are in awe of your spreadsheet-fu. I'm still pondering 'how do I excel' for calculating majorities in the 1885, 1886 and 1892 elections all on one page for a project...

 

[Meadow]

Excel-sior! Sorry.

Many, many congratulations to the fine airman on an obviously earned victory. Regular readers of this thread may recall that some time ago I said this TL was a shoo-in for the New Modern category, but would probably not win because it wasn't American or about nukes. I'm exceptionally pleased to have been proven wrong.

I also only just realised that as I ended up coming second, it falls to me to make a grandiose concession speech. I'll keep it simple - while it was a delight to see I Am A Legend get nominated, I was very surprised indeed when it started to do well and gobsmacked when it finished second. In the final week I found myself genuinely rooting for second place, as I (seriously) would have felt rather embarrassed to beat a year-long TL that has been my favorite of the year (I don't know if I've said that yet, but I mean it) with a TL that took 48 hours!

Thankfully, the voting public saw sense and the best TL won. To come second to you, Andy, and be narrowly followed by Thande in third, is a tremendous honour. That you have won this category makes me incredibly happy, and like you I am very pleased that the politibrits have had a good haul overall this year. Horse is my TL of 2013, and I shall vote accordingly in the superlative poll. If you do decide on a sequel, count me in as a reader from day one. If you do another TL, I'm there too.

Have a smashing Sunday.

 

[Thande]

Excel-sior! Sorry.

Many, many congratulations to the fine airman on an obviously earned victory. Regular readers of this thread may recall that some time ago I said this TL was a shoo-in for the New Modern category, but would probably not win because it wasn't American or about nukes. I'm exceptionally pleased to have been proven wrong.

I also only just realised that as I ended up coming second, it falls to me to make a grandiose concession speech. I'll keep it simple - while it was a delight to see I Am A Legend get nominated, I was very surprised indeed when it started to do well and gobsmacked when it finished second. In the final week I found myself genuinely rooting for second place, as I (seriously) would have felt rather embarrassed to beat a year-long TL that has been my favorite of the year (I don't know if I've said that yet, but I mean it) with a TL that took 48 hours!

Thankfully, the voting public saw sense and the best TL won. To come second to you, Andy, and be narrowly followed by Thande in third, is a tremendous honour. That you have won this category makes me incredibly happy, and like you I am very pleased that the politibrits have had a good haul overall this year. Horse is my TL of 2013, and I shall vote accordingly in the superlative poll. If you do decide on a sequel, count me in as a reader from day one. If you do another TL, I'm there too.

Have a smashing Sunday.

I was a bit surprised by that as well. I think perhaps there should be a separate category just for TLIADs because it's not fair to compare them to far grander long-term projects like this TL.

 

[AndyC]

Excel-sior! Sorry.

Many, many congratulations to the fine airman on an obviously earned victory. Regular readers of this thread may recall that some time ago I said this TL was a shoo-in for the New Modern category, but would probably not win because it wasn't American or about nukes. I'm exceptionally pleased to have been proven wrong.

I also only just realised that as I ended up coming second, it falls to me to make a grandiose concession speech. I'll keep it simple - while it was a delight to see I Am A Legend get nominated, I was very surprised indeed when it started to do well and gobsmacked when it finished second. In the final week I found myself genuinely rooting for second place, as I (seriously) would have felt rather embarrassed to beat a year-long TL that has been my favorite of the year (I don't know if I've said that yet, but I mean it) with a TL that took 48 hours!

Thankfully, the voting public saw sense and the best TL won. To come second to you, Andy, and be narrowly followed by Thande in third, is a tremendous honour. That you have won this category makes me incredibly happy, and like you I am very pleased that the politibrits have had a good haul overall this year. Horse is my TL of 2013, and I shall vote accordingly in the superlative poll. If you do decide on a sequel, count me in as a reader from day one. If you do another TL, I'm there too.

Have a smashing Sunday.

All I can say to praise and support like this is simply Thank You.
(Actually, as I have a cold, I can copy Bilbo and say "Thagyouberrymuch" )

When you were surging in the polls and catching up, I was genuinely sanguine about the possibility of you overtaking me, partly because the quality of your writing and all of your support for me, but also because the innovation and popularisation of the TLIAD concept would easily have meritted an award of its own. So I could hardly begrudge you getting one with a very well-written TLIAD!
And coming second to either Thande or yourself would have been no shame at all.

 

[Geordie]

All I can say to praise and support like this is simply Thank You.
(Actually, as I have a cold, I can copy Bilbo and say "Thagyouberrymuch" )

I've finally managed to catch up with December's updates, and I can only say that they only go to prove just how deserved that Turtledove really was.

MandyC almost seems to be passing the bloodied fangs on to Osborne in their scene. There's certain vibes along the lines of The Prince (of Darkness) is Dead, Long Live the Prince. Also, I really loved the scene between Brown and Cameron. It was pitched perfectly. Cameron slowly realising that being PM isn't quite as enjoyable as he'd imagined it, Brown knowing far too well how that particular notion feels. Not friends, but a healthy respect for somebody as a politician and a person, even if they see eye to eye on so very little.

The idea of giving the Lib Dems what they want, but not quite in the way they wanted, is a master-stroke for the two big parties (and yourself). It stops them hollowing out the other two, and any complaints that the constituencies aren't the right number would - as everybody has already said - by seen as petty quibbling. By the way, even if the Lib Dem meeting went pretty much as your contact reported it, it was beautifully delivered. Even better for it being every Politi-Brit's favourite Man of Action. I'm impressed that we now have the site's two most formidable spreadsheet gurus joining forces to run some modelling. The amount of Excel wizardry yourself and Iain have combined must be truly frightening!

The Gerrymandering is rather cynical, but entirely to be expected. It may be that after the first election, the boundaries commission decides to have a good look at What's Going On (), so they can jig some of them about. Then again, I suspect that there'll be little chance to do that in the North East. There are, in my opinion, pretty obvious pairings in each and every case, and any attempt to alter that would look forced.

I loved the Steve Hilton Rant. It's a pity that there wasn't a statistics geek around in the Labour party who could have been possessed by your good self. Also, the ASB ending was absolutely fantastic! I tend to be too much of a purist to enjoy it when people mess about with Tolkien's legendarium, but that was magnificent. The thought of a Ninja Queen Mum, Prince Philip being more involved in Diana's death than even Al-Fayed has ever imagined, and Putin as the shadow in the East? Bravo sir. If I had a hat, I would take it off in your honour. Bravo again.

I've already said it elsewhere, but many congratulations on the award. When you've recovered from your cold, I'm sure there'll be a nagging sense of loss every Wednesday. It might be strong enough that one day you'll decide to treat us again. To see if one man really can test Excel to the limit. To see just how successfully a singing horse can manage A Leap in the Dark!

 

[iainbhx]

East Midlands - officially 46 seats, but Andy goes careering across Regional Boundaries as well and it nicks a seat from West Midlands and from North West.

This set of results shows just how "The Plan" works to near perfection, there's lots of good UKIP votes in East Midlands, but the seats work out as 22 Con, 20 Labour, 3 LibDem and 3 UKIP. For added value, most of them are Nailed On Certs.

Nuneaton/Bosworth is possibly the most interesting, there's a safe Tory seat there, but the other seat whilst Labour, could be LibDem or UKIP depending on where the break is.

Blaby/Daventry returns Con UKIP, but the UKIP is rocky and could go Labour.

Northampton will return 1 Con, 1 Lab - but the Kippers lurk in the weeds.

Cambs NE/Sth Holland and the Deepings is the only seat so far to have a UKIP safe seat, it is possible for the unsafe Con seat to turn LDm, but its unlikely.

Boston and Louth returns 1 Con, 1 UKIP, the Con is safe, the UKIP is amazingly vulnerable to the LibDems who get a nice little transfer train going that only needs a few hundred more votes.

Derbyshire NE & Dales is messy, very messy, there isn't a safe seat, it goes Con Lab, but neither the LibDems or UKIP can be ruled out.

Next, East of England.

 

[Thande]

Nice work Iain. I think it's only advised that parliamentary seats not cross regional boundaries, as opposed to county boundaries being taken more seriously, so it shouldn't be a problem--the intention would look pretty blatant to somebody experienced with gerrymandering, but as I was reminded recently by this, the average person wouldn't notice unless there was a big campaign against it.

 

[AndyC]

I've finally managed to catch up with December's updates, and I can only say that they only go to prove just how deserved that Turtledove really was.

Thanks

MandyC almost seems to be passing the bloodied fangs on to Osborne in their scene. There's certain vibes along the lines of The Prince (of Darkness) is Dead, Long Live the Prince. Also, I really loved the scene between Brown and Cameron. It was pitched perfectly. Cameron slowly realising that being PM isn't quite as enjoyable as he'd imagined it, Brown knowing far too well how that particular notion feels. Not friends, but a healthy respect for somebody as a politician and a person, even if they see eye to eye on so very little.

-Nods

Yeah - over the issues being resolved, the human element of having to trust each other - and trust in each other - has had a positive impact on both of them in terms of how they view the other. As you say, neither will ever exactly like the other or agree with them ... but they can trust that the other will give of his best and rate the country above their own selves. "He's wrong, but he does mean for the best".

The idea of giving the Lib Dems what they want, but not quite in the way they wanted, is a master-stroke for the two big parties (and yourself). It stops them hollowing out the other two, and any complaints that the constituencies aren't the right number would - as everybody has already said - by seen as petty quibbling. By the way, even if the Lib Dem meeting went pretty much as your contact reported it, it was beautifully delivered. Even better for it being every Politi-Brit's favourite Man of Action. I'm impressed that we now have the site's two most formidable spreadsheet gurus joining forces to run some modelling. The amount of Excel wizardry yourself and Iain have combined must be truly frightening!

The Gerrymandering is rather cynical, but entirely to be expected. It may be that after the first election, the boundaries commission decides to have a good look at What's Going On (), so they can jig some of them about. Then again, I suspect that there'll be little chance to do that in the North East. There are, in my opinion, pretty obvious pairings in each and every case, and any attempt to alter that would look forced.

And - importantly - by that time, this will be "the way things are", so moving away from them will require more and stronger arguments, especially if both main parties see benefit in things for them as they are.

Amended Sir Humphrey stages:

1 - "The current setup is very new and we must see how it gets bedded in"
2 - "Maybe changes should be made, but we need to ensure that the right changes are done and more information is needed"
3 - "We have a number of proposals and must weigh them all up carefully and get detailed feedback for each of them"
4 - "It's now too close to the next Election to get any changes done in time"
5 - (following the Election) "Current demographic data is now out of date, we must wait for the next census data and use that"
6 - "The information is now very new; maybe changes should be made, but we need to ensure that the right changes are done and more analysis of the new information is needed"
7 - "We have a number of proposals and must weigh them all up carefully and get detailed feedback for each of them"

...

I loved the Steve Hilton Rant. It's a pity that there wasn't a statistics geek around in the Labour party who could have been possessed by your good self.
Also, the ASB ending was absolutely fantastic! I tend to be too much of a purist to enjoy it when people mess about with Tolkien's legendarium, but that was magnificent. The thought of a Ninja Queen Mum, Prince Philip being more involved in Diana's death than even Al-Fayed has ever imagined, and Putin as the shadow in the East? Bravo sir. If I had a hat, I would take it off in your honour. Bravo again.

Thanks. I was a bit worried about it - I knew that Thande at least was a Tolkien purist. Plus, the massive shift from the main story itself ... but it seemed to work well in the end.

East Midlands - officially 46 seats, but Andy goes careering across Regional Boundaries as well and it nicks a seat from West Midlands and from North West.

Iain - thanks again for doing these.

This set of results shows just how "The Plan" works to near perfection, there's lots of good UKIP votes in East Midlands, but the seats work out as 22 Con, 20 Labour, 3 LibDem and 3 UKIP. For added value, most of them are Nailed On Certs.

Nuneaton/Bosworth is possibly the most interesting, there's a safe Tory seat there, but the other seat whilst Labour, could be LibDem or UKIP depending on where the break is.

Blaby/Daventry returns Con UKIP, but the UKIP is rocky and could go Labour.

Northampton will return 1 Con, 1 Lab - but the Kippers lurk in the weeds.

Cambs NE/Sth Holland and the Deepings is the only seat so far to have a UKIP safe seat, it is possible for the unsafe Con seat to turn LDm, but its unlikely.

Boston and Louth returns 1 Con, 1 UKIP, the Con is safe, the UKIP is amazingly vulnerable to the LibDems who get a nice little transfer train going that only needs a few hundred more votes.

Derbyshire NE & Dales is messy, very messy, there isn't a safe seat, it goes Con Lab, but neither the LibDems or UKIP can be ruled out.

Next, East of England.

Excellent. Obviously, I hadn't actually modelled the Plan; it's based on mathematical intuition. It should work out ... (famous last words, often enough).
As a rip-stop to the advance of the insurgent Parties it should work well, at the cost of making majorities harder for the Big Two and providing a bigger chance of Government for the Lib Dems. But if the Big Two can turn around the vote loss and have one of them push back to 40+ with a 7 or so percentage lead (and, crucially, transfer friendliness; Lib Dems in Government should change their relative attraction (not 20:20 hindsight, but known in advance even by the Lib Dems in OTL 2010) to being the second-choice repository) then they can break back to majority territory.

At least, that's the idea, but I need to get some time to create and test out the Monstrosity and see if it gets close enough to your correctly calculated results to be useful for inputting alternatives and modelling them.

 

[AndyC]

By the way, for those who enjoyed the ASB ending, I did write a couple of scenes for Corsair_Caruso's work-in-progress "WI: Ar-Pharazon hadn't invaded Valinor".

They are here:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=8045393&postcount=107

and here:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=8099187&postcount=190

 

[Meadow]

When we had the latest London meet-up, I gave Andy an updated minimalist book cover in celebration of his Turtledove win. Here it is:

 

[AndyC]

Just to let all readers know that this is now available (in third draft form, where this was the first draft) at Amazon

As is the predecessor, the Fourth Lectern.
With thanks to all of you, and especially to Meadow and Lord Roem for cover illustration, internal illustration and an astounding level of help in the editing/redrafting and proof-reading stages - thanks!

The Fourth Lectern

The Fifth Lectern

 

[Chris S]

Excellent!

Definitely going to get them for Kindle.

 

[Plumber]

Excellent, got them both.

 

[Julius Vogel]

Purchased! I shall read this whilst at lunch

 

[Zachanassian]

So, just read through both Fourth and Fifth over the past two days.

Any chance of The Sixth Lectern?