Its going to be a pretty interesting matchup, and while Japan seems very eager for war they shouldn't underestimate Spain either. They didn't establish a reputation for the pre-eminent global empire of the early modern period for nothing.
That being said, Japan seems like the most likely victor in this conflict, given the factors of proximity and also that Spain is also distracted with the 30 Years War, or whatever the equivalent is at this point of time. However, it has been a while since Japan has fought an actual war - all the old veterans of the Sengoku period are old men and most of the Samurai of this period have grown up in times of relative peace, nor has Japan fought a 1st rate European opponent like Spain in an open conflict before. As I said, Japan will likely win, but they'll probably also learn some hard lessons of their own about European warfare - cracking the tercio is not an easy thing by any means, and it would force them to make some reforms to the way they organize their forces. Most of their deaths are undoubtedly going to come from disease - the Phillippines are a very foreign environment that the Japanese aren't used to.
Other cool ideas for the future - Nobutomo's opposition to Spanish interests might also provide the impetus to organize settlements on the West Coast of America - to provide forward bases to strike at the annual silver subsidies from Mexico that the Spanish Philippines depend upon. Or if the Japanese manage to successfully conquer Luzon at the very least, how they're going to deal with the vast religious panorama, and on a more fun note, how long it will be before we see native Filipino samurai (suddenly getting an image of Manny Pacquiao wearing samurai gear).
That being said, Japan seems like the most likely victor in this conflict, given the factors of proximity and also that Spain is also distracted with the 30 Years War, or whatever the equivalent is at this point of time. However, it has been a while since Japan has fought an actual war - all the old veterans of the Sengoku period are old men and most of the Samurai of this period have grown up in times of relative peace, nor has Japan fought a 1st rate European opponent like Spain in an open conflict before. As I said, Japan will likely win, but they'll probably also learn some hard lessons of their own about European warfare - cracking the tercio is not an easy thing by any means, and it would force them to make some reforms to the way they organize their forces. Most of their deaths are undoubtedly going to come from disease - the Phillippines are a very foreign environment that the Japanese aren't used to.
Other cool ideas for the future - Nobutomo's opposition to Spanish interests might also provide the impetus to organize settlements on the West Coast of America - to provide forward bases to strike at the annual silver subsidies from Mexico that the Spanish Philippines depend upon. Or if the Japanese manage to successfully conquer Luzon at the very least, how they're going to deal with the vast religious panorama, and on a more fun note, how long it will be before we see native Filipino samurai (suddenly getting an image of Manny Pacquiao wearing samurai gear).
