Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

Well this is unfortunate. The Imperial Court can't ever catch a break, and now the Japanese in the Philippines are more interested in overthrowing their government than defending against a Spanish invasion.
Hmm that makes sense, and I just wonder when would the mixture of styles be prominent, especially when European and Chinese/Japanese ship design offer different advantages and disadvantages.

Cambered junk rigs (where the junk rig have more cloth and can catch more wind especially upwind) are definitely a modern invention though, and I wonder would we see that kind of design be developed ittl. It'd mitigate the problems of upwind sailing for junk rigged systems while being a lot more intuitive to the Japanese sailors who're used to junk rigs.
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I've always been curious just how Asian ship designs would evolve in a scenario where they stay competitive with the West. We're basically to the point the classic ship of the line is evolving in the West and would change relatively little for over a century.
 
I've always been curious just how Asian ship designs would evolve in a scenario where they stay competitive with the West. We're basically to the point the classic ship of the line is evolving in the West and would change relatively little for over a century.
A lot of that will be shaped by the interactions among polities in Asia (China, Korea, Japan, Siam, Dai Viet, etc) rather than interactions with European powers.
 
Chapter 87: Amsterdam, Antwerp, and a Divided Dutch Republic

Chapter 87: Amsterdam, Antwerp, and a Divided Dutch Republic

The Peace of Antwerp had not only brought upon Spanish recognition of Dutch independence but also the acquisition of northern Flemish and Brabantine lands as well as Upper Guelders. However, Dutch territorial expansion also resulted in a great increase in the Catholic share of the population as the southern Netherlands had been converted from Calvinism in the early 17th century by the Spanish, with many Protestant holdouts having moved north. As a result, the Peace of Antwerp would also indirectly trigger a period of religious friction in the Republic. The first question was how the new Catholic-majority areas would be incorporated and administered. Hardline Calvinists advocated for the region to be consolidated into one entity and be governed directly by the States-General as the Lands of the Generality [1]. Frederick Henry, Prince of Orange, and the Holland regents, however, recognized the need to integrate the Catholic-majority lands fairly without brewing resentment. The new lands would subsequently become the provinces of Brabant, North Flanders, and Venlo. The Hague would select the Brabantine Catholic Duke of Aarschot, Philip Francis de Ligne, as the new stadtholder of Brabant, while Maurice Frederick of Nassau-Siegen became the stadtholder of North Flanders. Frederick Henry himself would become the stadtholder of Venlo. Additionally, whilst Catholicism would continue to be suppressed in the original seven provinces, it would be allowed in the new provinces, although the Dutch Reformed Church would remain the official church of the Dutch Republic. The toleration of Catholicism in the south would see many closet Catholics in the north move southwards.​

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Philip Francis van Ligne, Duke of Aarschot and the 1st stadtholder of Dutch Brabant​

However, the question over the governance and integration of the Catholic provinces soon became another ideological divide between the pro-prince Orangists and the pro-republican States Party. This was due to a new rivalry developing between Amsterdam and Antwerp. For much of the 16th century, Antwerp was the undisputed trade hub of the Netherlands and the sugar capital of Europe, attracting merchants from across the continent and becoming a booming artistic center. However, the Dutch Revolt saw a sovereign Netherlands in the north attract much of this newfound trade as the Dutch Republic grew into a major overseas and colonial powerhouse, with Amsterdam becoming the new center of trade in the region. Antwerp had not completely fallen off, however, and the incorporation of Antwerp into the Netherlands became an opportunity for the city to recover any of its lost economic power. Said opportunity, however, threatened Amsterdam and the political and economic influence of the Holland regents within the Republic. They therefore pushed to restrict the activity of Brabantine and Flemish merchants in Amsterdam and keep Antwerp out of the governance of the Dutch East and West India Companies. The Holland regents also joined hardline Calvinists in advocating for the active conversion of the southern provinces to Calvinism. Frederick Henry however remained steadfast and used his influence and authority to prevent any of these anti-Antwerp measures from going through and Antwerp would be included in the affairs of the India companies [2]. This earned the House of Orange-Nassau the trust and loyalty of the southern provinces, especially Philip Francis and the merchants of Antwerp.

The conflict between the Orangists and the States’ Party would continue after the death of Frederick Henry and the accession of his son, William, as the new Prince of Orange and the stadtholder of 7 of the 10 provinces of the Netherlands. The Holland regents and the new Prince argued over the maintenance of a large federal mercenary army in peacetime and in the process the constitutional theory of provincial supremacy over the matter was adopted by the majority of the Holland States’ General. In response, William decided to collude with Henry Casimir of Nassau-Dietz, the stadtholder of Friesland [3], and intimidate the regents. On July 30th, 1650, William had 6 regents arrested in the Hague while Henry Casimir attempted to take Amsterdam using federal troops. Although the latter was unsuccessful, Amsterdam was intimidated into purging William’s foes from the city council and the Orangists emerged victorious. Shortly afterwards, however, William would be afflicted with smallpox, dying in November within the year. A week after his death, his son William would be born.

William II’s death completely flipped the political order, as the captive regents were released and Holland pressed for the summoning of a Great Assembly to amend the Union of Utrecht. Additionally, on the provincial level the Holland States’ General assumed the powers and responsibilities of the stadtholder and would be followed by Zeeland. Holland pressured the other states whose stadtholder was formerly William II while Henry Casimir of Nassau-Dietz pushed them to appoint William II’s infant son. All of the provinces would choose to make their at the upcoming Great Assembly. Between January and August 1651, the Great Assembly took place. On the Orangist side were Henry Casimir of Nassau-Dietz, Maurice Frederick of Nassau-Siegen, and Philip Francis van Ligne of Aarschot. Meanwhile, Amsterdam regent Cornelis de Graeff and Dordrecht pensionary Johan de Witt represented the States’ Party. Ultimately, the 5 of the 6 provinces previously under William II’s stadtholdership [4] chose to not appoint a new stadtholder, with Venlo appointing the infant Prince of Orange as its new stadtholder and Henry Casimir as his lieutenant. This resulted in a deadlocked States-General between the States’ Party and the Orangist faction. As a result, the federal offices of captain general and admiral general would be vacated and not filled by Henry Casimir, as the Orangists wanted, its responsibilities taken up by the States’ General and the Raad van State. Nor would Holland’s desired restrictions on Brabantine and Flemish mercantile activity be taken up. With this, the General Assembly ended, having accomplished little in the matters of constitutional reform and leaving the Dutch Republic hopelessly divided politically.​

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Painting of the Great Assembly of 1651 by Dirck van Delen​

While Henry Casimir undoubtedly led the Orangists, Johan de Witt would emerge as the main leader of the States’ Party as the new Grand Pensionary of Holland. In addition to advocating for a more republican form of government, De Witt pushed for the primacy of Amsterdam over a rebounding Antwerp in Dutch commercial interests. As the Orangists relied on support from the southern Catholic provinces, the Grand Pensionary courted hardline Calvinist support and the blessings of prominent members of the Public Church, despite his Erastianism and supported the active conversion of North Flanders and Venlo, exempting Brabant from the proposal as a “Catholic homeland” within the United Provinces. As long as the deadlock lasted, however, de Witt could not have his way on these policies nor could the power of its advocates be satisfied or suppressed by the Orangists. As a result, the various interest groups within the Dutch Republic would engage in extra-governmental actions to achieve their goals. Catholics secretly practicing their faith in the north faced greater persecution than ever before from Calvinist zealots. Meanwhile, the merchants of Antwerp organized the Guild of the Scheldt with the covert backing of Philip Francis to collectively control their financial and trade interests against those of Amsterdam and Holland overall.

In addition to exacerbating the activities of extra-governmental interests, the political deadlock undermined the ability of the Hague to effectively make decisions. This left the Dutch Republic unable to address its issues effectively. Dutch Brazil was unable to be retaken, with the Netherlands formally acknowledging Portugal’s total victory in 1654 in the Treaty of the Hague and the Ceylon War ultimately ending in a VOC defeat [5]. English trade interests, previously weakened by the end of Dutch-Spanish hostilities in 1644 [6], began to claw back with the passage of the Navigation Act in 1651, which restricted commercial activity between its colonies and foreign ships. Denmark and Sweden also responded with their own mercantilist measures, including an increase in the Sound tolls. The Republic’s inability to react effectively combined with the rivalry between Amsterdam and Antwerp to such issues saw its commercial power wane in the 1650s after an upswing in the 1640s.

Inevitably, the deadlock would be broken. In 1654, Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand III promoted Henry Casimir of Nassau-Dietz from a count to an imperial prince and this action paved the way towards a Orangist victory through the invocation of imperial authority [7]. It took some time for Henry Casimir’s elevation to bear fruit but in 1656, the Orangist prince circulated a letter accusing Johan de Witt and his faction of holding the political stability of the Netherlands hostage in favor of their own interests, arguing that only a prince could rightfully lead the Republic. This broke the dam as discontent bubbling under the surface erupted as riots broke out across the provinces controlled by the States’ Party. Opposition towards de Witt’s faction was only strengthened when Frederick William I, the elector of Brandenburg-Prussia, [8] declared sympathy and support for Henry Casimir while secretly promising the prince of Nassau-Dietz military support if necessary. Even many Calvinist zealots supported the prince due to theological preference for a princely government. The popular outburst eventually led to Zeeland and Utrecht flipping, appointing William III as their new stadtholder and Henry Casimir as the young Prince of Orange’s lieutenant. The new Orangist majority would appoint Henry Casimir as the new captain general of the United Provinces the following year, and the Prince of Nassau-Dietz became the new de facto leader of the Republic. What would later be known as the Seven Years Interregnum had concluded.​

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Portrait of Henry Casimir, Prince of Nassau-Dietz​

The end of the Interregnum did not mean the end of the Republic’s problems, however. Under Henry Casimir’s leadership, the power of the States’ Party was significantly curbed and Johan de Witt was forced to resign as Grand Pensionary. A mercantile policy of moderate primacy in favor of Amsterdam was established that also ensured that Antwerp would continue to rebound as a port from its decline amidst the Dutch Independence War , especially in the sugar trade. In general, the Dutch Republic was now more able to tackle its commercial issues abroad. Nevertheless, lingering resentment remained and could not be fully contained. Despite their defeat, the States’ Party still maintained a level of support, especially in Holland. Calvinist zealots and many in the Public Church continued to prove to be a problem internally, unwilling to accept any solution other than the aggressive conversion of the southern provinces and the disempowerment of any high-ranking Catholic officials, including the Brabantine stadtholder. Finally, years on the receiving end of persecution and hatred bred separatist sentiment among some in the southern provinces who felt that their needs would be better served by a Catholic nation, France or Spain. This last fact would not be lost on Paris or Madrid, who would keep an eye on North Flanders, Brabant, and Venlo as potential opportunities for territorial gain in future wars.

[1]: Outcome of OTL

[2]: How Brabantines were involved in the unsuccessful defense of New Holland

[3]: Henry Casimir I of Nassau-Dietz doesn’t die at Hulst in 1640 like IOTL and so succeeds his father Ernest Casimir I instead of his young brother William Frederick.

[4]: Like IOTL, Groningen immediately picks the Friesland stadtholder as their new stadtholder, ITTL Henry Casimir I of Nassau-Dietz.

[5]: ITTL, the Dutch took Ceylon in the mid-17th century.

[6]: Like in OTL, English merchants benefited from Dutch-Spanish conflicts as they were able to replace the Dutch on the Iberian Peninsula. The only difference is this difference erased 4 years earlier.

[7]: ITTL, this actually matters because the Netherlands is still a part of the HRE.

[8]: Tied to the House of Orange-Nassau through his marriage to Louise Henriette, a daughter of Frederick Henry, Prince of Orange.​
 
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Interesting, given an slightly weaker and more divide Dutch Republic here we could see something like the French actually being able to press them more if something like the Dutch-Franco war happens
 
Chapter 88: Manji War Part V - Uncle vs. Nephew

Chapter 88: Manji War Part V - Uncle vs. Nephew

By March 1661, Kanbe Tomoyoshi, the new self-proclaimed leader of the rebellion against Azuchi and the government of his nephew, Konoe Toshishige, had received the support of the governors of Bireitō, the Shimazu clan, and the Mōri clan as well as Tagawa Seikou. Now secure enough to sail from Awari, he departed Luson alongside Tagawa’s fleet and an army of 10,000, headed towards Kagoshima. Awaiting his arrival on April 6th was Shimazu Norihisa and his army of 7,500 to be shortly joined by 1,000 more men from Bireitō. Many Shimazu samurai who were Calvinists proudly wore necklaces with crosses as a sign of defiance and pride against the oppressive regime. Accompanied by this combined and spirited force, Tomoyoshi began marching through Kyushu with the Kyushu Tandai helping to garner support for him. It took little persuasion, for many of the daimyo not only preferred the Luson governor over the imperial regent but resented Toshishige’s recent edicts against Kirishitans as they were either Kirishitan themselves or ruled over sizable populations of agitated Kirishitans. Many adherents to the Yamato Church also volunteered to the rebel cause. By the time Tomoyoshi’s army arrived in Hakata, it numbered 42,000, the new rebel leader having received the support of virtually all of Kyushu. They would be joined by 10,000 mobilized men in the Mōri lands and 2,000 Chinese mercenaries in the service of Tagawa Seikou. In total, Tomoyoshi commanded the loyalties of 54,000 men.

Tomoyoshi’s arrival could not be more fortuitous for the rebel cause in the east, for they had struggled after the death of Tomoaki. His absence caused much disarray in Echigo province in particular, where despite losing at Uonuma Sakuma Moritora took advantage of the chaos and had successfully taken over most of the province. Etchu was also under siege as Shibata Katsuoki’s army retook the initiative against the Sassa-Nagao forces. In the Kanto region, Oota Nobufusa had been forced to retreat all the way to Nirayama Castle (韮山城) despite aid from the Tokugawa by Musashino Toshinao and Murai Munemasa. Meanwhile, after a grueling battle, Kitabatake Takanaga’s forces finally overcame Kudō Kanemasa in Iga province in December 1660. His son Kanesuke (工藤包相) was killed in the final showdown while Kanemasa committed seppuku. Kanemasa’s grandson, Kanenao (工藤包直), however, managed to escape the province with a few hundred men and began to run towards Owari province with the hopes of meeting up with the Tokugawa. He wouldn’t make it far, getting captured near the Sunomata River (墨俣川). Shortly afterwards, he would be sent to Azuchi where his execution would take place a few months later. With this, the bloodline of Oda Nobukane, a brother of the great Oda Nobunaga, met its end, and Takanaga would shift his forces towards Owari and Shinano provinces, exerting greater pressure upon the rebel forces.​

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State of the Manji War, spring 1661 (Orange=rebels, Pink=Azuchi)​

News of Tomoyoshi’s decision to join and take over the rebel cause as well as his army’s landing in Kagoshima and the subsequent defections in Kyushu and the Chugoku region that followed greatly alarmed Azuchi. Realizing the precarious situation his regency was found in, Toshishige decided on taking to the field himself. Accompanied by a force of 2,000 men, he would quickly gallop towards Settsu province where the Ikeda were nearly on their last legs, having rapidly lost territory when Miyoshi Yasunori’s large army landed nearby and after Takayama Tsugufusa had succumbed to Azuchi’s forces. After he arrived, he convened a military conference of the top generals on the Settsu front. Although some opinions called for finishing off the Ikeda at Hyogo and its surroundings before making any moves against Tomoyoshi directly, it was decided that a portion of the combined army would stay behind in Settsu while the majority would proceed westwards, with Konoe Toshishige at the helm of the army.

The battleground would be the middle Chugoku region. Although most of the provinces in the region remained loyal to Azuchi, significant victories could shift their loyalties. This was especially the situation in Bitchu and Bingo provinces, which were already divided in their allegiances. Many minor lords and Itou Sukemichi (伊東祐由) sided with Tomoyoshi, while the other minor lords as well as Hachisuka Tomotaka (蜂須賀朝隆) and Kuroda Tomoyuki (黒田朝之) remained on the kōbu kanpuku’s side. Tomoyoshi would take the bulk of the army through the two provinces as the expectation was that Toshishige planned on marching through there, while a second, primarily Mōri-led, army led by Mōri Tsugumoto himself would confront the Urakusai and Amago clans in Izumo province.

When Tomoyoshi entered Bingo province, Kuroda Tomoyuki saw the writing on the wall and retreated to the north of the province, recognizing the futility of resisting a pincer from both east and west and focusing on gathering support from the minor lords. To counter this, Tomoyoshi would send a contingent of 10,000 under the command of Hori Chikamasa while the former continued onwards, meeting up with Itou Sukemichi to confront Hachisuka Tomotaka in Bitchu province. By then, however, Toshishige’s army of 45,000 had arrived on the scene. Lacking any military experience and raised more as a court noble than as a proper samurai, the kōbu kanpaku delegated the running of the army to Miyoshi Yasunori. The 53 year old general and councilor was a proven commander , his career spanning both the Iberian-Japanese and Furuwatari Wars as well as the ongoing conflict. Once a fellow battlefield colleague of Tomoyoshi, he would prove to be a worthy combatant.

Yasunori initially planned to surprise Tomoyoshi’s army, who had set up camp in the recently captured Nariwa Castle (成羽城), and wipe them out before they had a chance to react. At that moment, he possessed twice the number of men accompanying Tomoyoshi at the time. Yasunori’s cover would only be blown by a number of Lusonese archers hunting for deer and boars in a nearby forest. Tomoyoshi began a retreat back into Bingo province but with the enemy nipping at his heels, he assigned the rear guard, led by Horiuchi Ujihira (堀内氏衡), to hold off Toshishige as long as possible. Given several pieces of artillery, he formed up in a defensive position and delivered several bouts of cannonfire upon the enemy. However, the enemy eventually overwhelmed the rear guard, with Ujihira getting killed in the action and the survivors led by his younger brother Ujinari (堀内氏成) making it out.

Tomoyoshi understood that the decisive clash against Azuchi drew near. He called upon Tsugumoto, who had just led his men to a decisive victory against Urakusai Nagaie at the Battle of Kute (久手の戦い), as well as Chikamasa to join with him to confront Toshishige and Yasunori. Simultaneously, Kuroda Tomoyuki maneuvered to meet up with his overlord, keeping enough men in northern Bitchu to hold down pro-Tomoyoshi lords in the area. The two armies would shortly face off in eastern Bingo province, with Kanbe Tomoyoshi setting up camp in the vicinity of Kibitsu Shrine (吉備津神社) near Fukuyama Castle (福山城). The clash on August 9th would go down in history as the Battle of Bingo-Kibitsu (備後吉備津の戦い). Tomoyoshi commanded an army of 51,000, composed of samurai from Bireitō, Kyushu, Luson, and the Chugoku region as well as a handful of Lusonese native infantry and Chinese mercenaries. The left wing was led by Hori Chikamasa and the northern Kyushu contingent while the right wing was led by Mōri Tsugumoto and the Mōri troops. The center was composed of the remainder, directly led by the general himself. Tomoyoshi would place the archers and Chinese mercenaries at the front, assigning a lieutenant of Tagawa Seikou, Shun Zhixi, command of the front rank. Across from them was the main Azuchi army, led by Konoe Toshishige and Miyoshi Yasunori. Yasunori directly oversaw the center, made up of men largely from Shikoku. Commanding the wings, meanwhile, were Kuroda Tomoyuki on the right and Niwa Tomoshige on the left respectively. In total, they numbered 52,000, holding an advantage in cavalry and artillery over the rebel army.​

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Blue = Tomoyoshi’s army, Salmon = Azuchi army​

The battle began at the break of dawn with an exchange of cannonfire, by now a customary exposition in samurai battles. As the smoke and fog gave way to bright sunlight and the Azuchi army frontlines began their march, Shun Zhixi ordered the archers to shoot into the sky, showering them with an unexpected spray of arrows. This somewhat softened up the front ranks. Once their job was finished, the archers were recalled to the ranks of the reserves. It was at this point that the infantry slog of musket fire and metal clangs commenced, particularly in the center. The cavalry also clashed, mostly on the wings. At this phase, the battle was in balance, neither side holding a decisive advantage. Seeing an opportunity, Yasunori ordered an intense barrage of cannonfire across the board, pounding the rebels hard and weakening the left and right wings. However, the center was fortified with heavy samurai infantry from Bireitō and elite Chinese mercenary infantry, who proved their metal and persevered through the explosions and smoke. In fact, the bombardment had intensified their fighting spirits and they charged the center along with accompanying musketeers, pushing back the Azuchi army’s ranks. It was now Tomoyoshi’s turn to reveal an ace up his sleeves. He ordered a barrage of his own cannons and sent up his archers forward to unleash a storm of arrows upon the center. The center of the army, despite being made up of some of Azuchi’s most experienced men, finally buckled under the intense pressure of arrow fire, cannonfire, and Tomoyoshi’s own elite men, and they began to rout. This was followed by the wings, who saw the impending retreat and decided to abandon the fight as well. The bloody confrontation had ended in a victory for Tomoyoshi, but not without heavy losses. He had lost 9,000 men while the main Azuchi army of Toshishige and Yasunori had lost around 17,000.

Although Tomoyoshi had won a critical victory, the civil war was far from over. Azuchi still had plenty of men they could field against him and throughout most of the rest of the realm, the rebels were on the losing end. Instead, it would be events in Kyoto and Echigo that would be key in deciding the final outcome of the war.​
 
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Oda Nobunaga in the afterlife: "What are you idiots doing!? I didn't unify the land under one banner just to see more bloodshed!"
Karmic retribution is inevitable. He was lucky in Real History as well. Uesugi and Takeda, as soon as they were about to deal with him, died of health problems. And the first coalition, which almost strangled him, fell apart due to the inconsistent position of the temple, because of which the fuss began. On top of that, one of his nieces became Monkey's concubine.
 
Kyoto, eh? That’s the imperial capital, me thinks the emperor is going to intervene somehow and put an end to the civil war (or at least start the process to or make an attempt to).
 
Karmic retribution is inevitable. He was lucky in Real History as well. Uesugi and Takeda, as soon as they were about to deal with him, died of health problems. And the first coalition, which almost strangled him, fell apart due to the inconsistent position of the temple, because of which the fuss began. On top of that, one of his nieces became Monkey's concubine.
Funny enough, Saru was originally lusting after Nobunaga’s sister/Cha cha’s mother. In terms of “karmic retribution”, I guess a thesis of this TL is that Japan remains more militarized in a world where their borders are wide open and they engage in some level of commercial and territorial expansion, thus making periodic civil wars and rebellions more likely and pressuring the realm towards different directions. After all, the Tokugawa Shogunate worked best in a Japan in a stage of sakoku.
 
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