Path of Darkness: Europe's Illiberal Hour
"...given considerably more attention and import outside of Germany than within it, in part thanks to the sharp rise of Germanophobia in Russia and the United Kingdom after the Central European War left the Reich as the master of continental Europe. The reality was that the Volkisch strain of early 20th century German nationalism was a heterogenous collection of loosely-affiliated ideas and organizations on its best day; more often, it was an incoherent mess.

The most sophisticated and important organ of German chauvinism was the Alldeutscher Verband, or Pan-German League, a pressure group with relatively low formal numbers compared to its leveraged influence via its deep connections to the Agrarian League and other conservative outfits preeminent in the rural, agricultural and fervently traditionalist "East Elbia," the Prussian lands east of the River Elbe. The ADV was no minor outfit, to be sure. It was after all the fifth-largest party in the Reichstag in the mid-1910s with 27 seats at the 1913 elections, nearly as large as the traditional East Elbia-based Conservatives. Nonetheless, its calls for German "racial hygiene," the unification of German-speaking Austria by force into the Reich and the deportation of all Poles and Slavs from German lands and its more rabidly anti-Semitic notions of German nationhood placed a hard ceiling on its potential support in Germany's more cosmopolitan West and in densely industrialized Saxony, and it struggled to capture the attention of the government of Prince Furstenburg, who instead was focused on maintaining his clientelist "rotation" of major anti-Socialist parties rather than pursuing esoteric notions of hard-right nationalism.

Indeed, German nationalism had always in the 19th century been something of a liberal project, and Social Democrats were as much keen to promote a singular German identity - all the easier to soothe over the regional, cultural and confessional differences of the German working class that way! - as were the National Liberals whose conservative brand of liberalism was once more ascendant in the wake of the 1914 Olympics. This meant that the most sharp-edged elements of the nationalist camp were competing against strains of German sensibilities more grounded in liberal romanticism and against a particularistic conservatism that emphasized either Prussian chauvinism or Bavarian insularism, and left the far-right strangely and quaintly left to dabble in bizarre pursuits such as the occultism bordering on Germanic paganism for which the Germanenorden became infamous after a series of newspaper exposes in 1915. [1]

That being said, it is not so much that the ADV and other pressure organizations were completely irrelevant compared to the outsized attention British scholarship afforded them in the mid-20th century, but rather that their emergence speaks to something broader going on in German society: a general debate, around the fifty-year mark of the Unification, about what it meant to German and what the nature of that national project was. They were simply participants, unusually extreme ones, in a broader cultural and intellectual debate on a subject that had vexed Europe since the Napoleonic Wars: Was ist Deutschland?

The reality was that while the neo-pagans and petite bourgeoisie of well-educated reactionaries in ADV may have been a loud minority, the thinking from which they emerged was not invented of whole cloth. There was a very real sense amongst the East Elbian Prussian elites that composed the hierarchy of the German military that the traditional, old-fashioned patriarchal and semi-feudal hierarchy to which they were heirs was vanishing before their eyes. They were the inheritors of the Ostsiedlung of the Middle Ages, steeped in the legends of the Teutonic Knights who had been the tip of the spear of civilizing Christianity - Germanic civilizing Christianity - and saw in their own devotion to order, authority and discipline a facsimile of the monastic chivalry that had driven paganism from the shores of the Baltic Sea for good.

It was out of this tradition that a theme of German mutual struggle, the Nationalkampf, was first noticed. It was posited by a variety of not just right-wing intellectuals but liberal and even socialist ones that the theme of the German experience was collective unity in the face of hardship, and that this often occurred in increments of fifty years, later called the "Saeculum Theory" despite its improper use of the term and erroneously ascribed to Center Party politicain Matthias Erzberger, who disavowed it. The idea looked back to the frequency of wars in Germany starting with the Liberation Wars against Napoleon and the Unification Wars of Bismarck as the fundamental building blocks of the German state, in which every generation had a new struggle that would gradually move Germany forward towards its destiny. The wars that concluded with the nationalist crucible of the Battle of Leipzig had ended the Holy Roman Empire and defined Germany as an entity; the wars that ended with Napoleon III's armistice near Chalons had united Germany as a single state. Previous saeculums in this line of thinking stretched back to the establishment of Prussia as a great power under Friedrich Wilhelm III, and the Thirty Years War and violence of the Protestant Reformation before it. [2]

The thrust of this line of thinking, which while a distinct minority but increasingly influential in German defense planning, was that the rising opposition to German goals and ambitions by France and to a lesser extent Austria was another episode in the continuous struggle of the German nation against external enemies, in this case - once again - the Bonapartist foe in Paris. France had been the enemy in the 1810s "Wars of Liberation," in the 1860s "Wars of Unification," and to a new generation, they were the likeliest enemy in a potential 1910s "Wars of Consolidation." This thread, when pulled at, explains why German defense planning came to view French provocations as not diplomatic angst but deliberate steps towards war, and perhaps over-committed itself to seeking to provoke France in turn into a blunder - a deliberate strategy of preparedness, of "choosing the place and time of battle," as von Kluck phrased it, a policy that was of course too clever by half..."

- Path of Darkness: Europe's Illiberal Hour

[1] What I'm trying to get at here was that some of the right-wing outfits in Wilhelmine (Heinrichine?) Germany that dabbled in pan-German nationalism (including some of the ADV) were composed of massive and complete dorks, and it took the chaos of November 1918 and the alienation of the traditional Prussian elite in the military and nobility from Weimar democracy to paper over that these people were not taken particularly seriously before there was a giant credibility vacuum on the German right for them to step into. This is not to minimize race essentialism, anti-Semitism, etc in pre-WW1 Germany, just noting that the really out-there stuff was out-there, and that the casual racism and contempt for Jews in Germany was similar to sentiments held by much of the French, British, Italian and Austrian public too, especially amongst academia.
[2] I should note that the Sonderweg theory is absolute, complete, and total bullshit in my opinion and does not deserve time and energy to debate, but there was a distinct sense in German intellectual circles that their nationhood was in some ways defined by a struggle against external opponents, in part due to Germany's unique political history and the geographic realities of being surrounded by larger "traditional" European powers such as France and the Habsburg realms. I wouldn't go nearly so far as to call it a siege mentality, but the sense of being hemmed in and that unity came through shared struggle was noticed by Bismarck and perhaps even before him
 
Colossal dorks they might be give them a chance run to a nation and European dorks will make even the jaded colonial administrators pale with horror.

That being said I think I'm beginning to see the direction in which Germany goes and I must admit i'm not sure France would enjoy a copy of their model of conservative, sorta paternalistic state with some socialist ideas united under a monarch in which the far right can't keep power in when they are no longer the dominant one.
 
Hey KingSweden24, just wanting to ask - which countries do you think your timeline wanks or screws the most, intentionally or otherwise?

And are there any countries ITTL that have received little focus now that you think will receive a lot more in future?
 
Just curious, at this point in Europe, what nations are "democracies/parliamentary monarchies" in that if 60% of the males 21 or older vote for the members of a party that that party's leader will make the final decision as to whether they go to war or not?

And I'm curious as to which nations in America will support in the CEW. I'm guessing the US will mildly support Germany/Italy and Mexico will somewhat support France/Austria. But I don't see significantly more support by the American countries in the War in Europe than there was of the European countries for the war in the Americas.
 
Colossal dorks they might be give them a chance run to a nation and European dorks will make even the jaded colonial administrators pale with horror.

That being said I think I'm beginning to see the direction in which Germany goes and I must admit i'm not sure France would enjoy a copy of their model of conservative, sorta paternalistic state with some socialist ideas united under a monarch in which the far right can't keep power in when they are no longer the dominant one.
France will definitely not enjoy a Germany that merely makes bad, rather than colossally stupid, decisions, no.

Just curious, at this point in Europe, what nations are "democracies/parliamentary monarchies" in that if 60% of the males 21 or older vote for the members of a party that that party's leader will make the final decision as to whether they go to war or not?

And I'm curious as to which nations in America will support in the CEW. I'm guessing the US will mildly support Germany/Italy and Mexico will somewhat support France/Austria. But I don't see significantly more support by the American countries in the War in Europe than there was of the European countries for the war in the Americas.
Hard to say, since so many of the democracies in Europe are still limited by some kind of check either by the monarchy, an upper house or even the bureaucracy (Germany, for instance).

The US sorta just trades with whoever wants to buy their shit, really, but France will manage to piss them off again and make individual actors less willing to sell to them than others
Hey KingSweden24, just wanting to ask - which countries do you think your timeline wanks or screws the most, intentionally or otherwise?

And are there any countries ITTL that have received little focus now that you think will receive a lot more in future?
Oooh good question. I think the hard thing to answer on this is that so far, at least, we’ve still sort of mirrored the OTL 1862-1915 period. It’s still very different of course but not radically so that one would not recognize it. Long winded way of say that the real hard screws haven’t started yet.

Id also argue that a wank can go to a screw on short notice - see Chile and the CSA ITTL, both of which I’d say are a bit wanked, but now are getting BTFO.

Generally speaking though I’d say that Latin America has been sort of wanked and East Asia is a wankscrew; places like the Philippines get independence earlier and China is “stable” earlier but at considerably greater cost of life and treasure.

Spain is 1000% a wank, France is a soft wank, Russia is a soft screw since they are well behind OTL in terms of investment and development, Austria is a soft wank, Ottomans are a hard wank, Brits a soft screw. Germany is a soft wank simply by removing Kaiser Bill from the equation.
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In terms of countries we haven’t spent much time in but will in the future. Italy and Japan come to mind. Northern parts of South America. Much of Africa. Australia and the Malay World.
 
France will definitely not enjoy a Germany that merely makes bad, rather than colossally stupid, decisions, no.


Hard to say, since so many of the democracies in Europe are still limited by some kind of check either by the monarchy, an upper house or even the bureaucracy (Germany, for instance).

The US sorta just trades with whoever wants to buy their shit, really, but France will manage to piss them off again and make individual actors less willing to sell to them than others

Oooh good question. I think the hard thing to answer on this is that so far, at least, we’ve still sort of mirrored the OTL 1862-1915 period. It’s still very different of course but not radically so that one would not recognize it. Long winded way of say that the real hard screws haven’t started yet.

Id also argue that a wank can go to a screw on short notice - see Chile and the CSA ITTL, both of which I’d say are a bit wanked, but now are getting BTFO.

Generally speaking though I’d say that Latin America has been sort of wanked and East Asia is a wankscrew; places like the Philippines get independence earlier and China is “stable” earlier but at considerably greater cost of life and treasure.

Spain is 1000% a wank, France is a soft wank, Russia is a soft screw since they are well behind OTL in terms of investment and development, Austria is a soft wank, Ottomans are a hard wank, Brits a soft screw. Germany is a soft wank simply by removing Kaiser Bill from the equation.
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In terms of countries we haven’t spent much time in but will in the future. Italy and Japan come to mind. Northern parts of South America. Much of Africa. Australia and the Malay World.
Given that the only war that I'm pretty confident by 1940 on is Italy+Greece/Ottoman (yes go ahead and break my heart and avoid the war. :) ), I'd say that the countries in Europe guaranteed to be wanked are Germany and whoever the winner is in I+G/O . I believe you've indicated that there will not be a WWII level war in Europe (No idea in Asia, Japan may take advantage of France's ability to protect the countries it was doing prior to the CEW)

Given that France will be trying to put down Algeria for the next 50 years, I wonder on the status of the rest of North Africa. If I+G win, 4th shore may be a successful thing iTTL as well as an independent Egypt. While the idea of the Europeans outnumbering the Natives is possible in Algeria & Libya, trying to do that to Egypt would take OTLWWII level of destruction. (And there are at *least* 4 countries that I could see having the Suez Canal in 1950:Britain, Germany, Italy, Ottomans) though some sort of international control like Britain was trying to get for the Nicaragua Canal might be possible.

And I'm trying to remember whether any of the changes have significantly affected the Swiss. (I'm not sure if they are likely to gain any area from either side's victory in the CEW. They *should* be able in the short term to trade through both sides.
 
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France will definitely not enjoy a Germany that merely makes bad, rather than colossally stupid, decisions, no.


Hard to say, since so many of the democracies in Europe are still limited by some kind of check either by the monarchy, an upper house or even the bureaucracy (Germany, for instance).

The US sorta just trades with whoever wants to buy their shit, really, but France will manage to piss them off again and make individual actors less willing to sell to them than others

Oooh good question. I think the hard thing to answer on this is that so far, at least, we’ve still sort of mirrored the OTL 1862-1915 period. It’s still very different of course but not radically so that one would not recognize it. Long winded way of say that the real hard screws haven’t started yet.

Id also argue that a wank can go to a screw on short notice - see Chile and the CSA ITTL, both of which I’d say are a bit wanked, but now are getting BTFO.

Generally speaking though I’d say that Latin America has been sort of wanked and East Asia is a wankscrew; places like the Philippines get independence earlier and China is “stable” earlier but at considerably greater cost of life and treasure.

Spain is 1000% a wank, France is a soft wank, Russia is a soft screw since they are well behind OTL in terms of investment and development, Austria is a soft wank, Ottomans are a hard wank, Brits a soft screw. Germany is a soft wank simply by removing Kaiser Bill from the equation.
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In terms of countries we haven’t spent much time in but will in the future. Italy and Japan come to mind. Northern parts of South America. Much of Africa. Australia and the Malay World.
I mean it is extremely hard to screw Spain more than OTL, the country basically went downhill since the 19th century, Russia I consider it be a wank since there won’t be massive demographic loss occur due to both world war, civil war, and holodomor being butterflied away. So even though it might be underdeveloped compare to OTL, it can easily catch up should it solve its internal turmoil( plus I really like to see what a modern tsarist Russia would look like.
 
I mean it is extremely hard to screw Spain more than OTL, the country basically went downhill since the 19th century, Russia I consider it be a wank since there won’t be massive demographic loss occur due to both world war, civil war, and holodomor being butterflied away. So even though it might be underdeveloped compare to OTL, it can easily catch up should it solve its internal turmoil( plus I really like to see what a modern tsarist Russia would look like.
The 18th wasn't that great for Spain either.

In fact, between the fact that the Hapsburgs tended to fight on the same side against their enemies, what is the last war that Spain (in something approaching its current boundaries in Europe) *won* alone (or as the major participant) iOTL? (One of the Italian Wars in the first half of the 1500s???)

(I'm excluding "Native" nations or Latin American revolts)
 
Huh. I wonder what German-American relations will be like in this TL once both powers have won their respective conflicts. I get the impression that this world will be much more multi-polar than OTL.
 
Given that the only war that I'm pretty confident by 1940 on is Italy+Greece/Ottoman (yes go ahead and break my heart and avoid the war. :) ), I'd say that the countries in Europe guaranteed to be wanked are Germany and whoever the winner is in I+G/O . I believe you've indicated that there will not be a WWII level war in Europe (No idea in Asia, Japan may take advantage of France's ability to protect the countries it was doing prior to the CEW)

Given that France will be trying to put down Algeria for the next 50 years, I wonder on the status of the rest of North Africa. If I+G win, 4th shore may be a successful thing iTTL as well as an independent Egypt. While the idea of the Europeans outnumbering the Natives is possible in Algeria & Libya, trying to do that to Egypt would take OTLWWII level of destruction. (And there are at *least* 4 countries that I could see having the Suez Canal in 1950:Britain, Germany, Italy, Ottomans) though some sort of international control like Britain was trying to get for the Nicaragua Canal might be possible.

And I'm trying to remember whether any of the changes have significantly affected the Swiss. (I'm not sure if they are likely to gain any area from either side's victory in the CEW. They *should* be able in the short term to trade through both sides.
There’s really no way to avoid Greco-Italian v Ottoman tensions; only q for me is when that eventually blows up and to what extent, and if Serbia is all about that action too

Switzerland… well, they’re quite the enterprising middleman, so…
I mean it is extremely hard to screw Spain more than OTL, the country basically went downhill since the 19th century, Russia I consider it be a wank since there won’t be massive demographic loss occur due to both world war, civil war, and holodomor being butterflied away. So even though it might be underdeveloped compare to OTL, it can easily catch up should it solve its internal turmoil( plus I really like to see what a modern tsarist Russia would look like.
Absolutely.

My long term plan for Russia is kinda hazy, but either “modern constitutionalized Tsarism taken to its natural conclusion” or “Post-Revolution Iran, but Orthodox” are on the table at this point in time. Don’t know if that counts as a success or wank; but it’ll most definitely be a very different vibe from OTL
Huh. I wonder what German-American relations will be like in this TL once both powers have won their respective conflicts. I get the impression that this world will be much more multi-polar than OTL.
Multipolarity is an explicit aim of the TL. This also means that alignments will be more fluid; relations between Berlin and Philly will ebb and flow just as they do between London and Philly, London and Berlin, Berlin and St. Pete, Philly and Tokyo, Tokyo and Nanking…
 
There’s really no way to avoid Greco-Italian v Ottoman tensions; only q for me is when that eventually blows up and to what extent, and if Serbia is all about that action too

Switzerland… well, they’re quite the enterprising middleman, so…

Absolutely.

My long term plan for Russia is kinda hazy, but either “modern constitutionalized Tsarism taken to its natural conclusion” or “Post-Revolution Iran, but Orthodox” are on the table at this point in time. Don’t know if that counts as a success or wank; but it’ll most definitely be a very different vibe from OTL

Multipolarity is an explicit aim of the TL. This also means that alignments will be more fluid; relations between Berlin and Philly will ebb and flow just as they do between London and Philly, London and Berlin, Berlin and St. Pete, Philly and Tokyo, Tokyo and Nanking…
Hmm. Which side is Serbia on then. Not sure where the advantages are. Which reminds me, what is the status of Romania and Bulgaria. Have they been pried from Ottoman control?

As long as Switzerland keeps things in balance, I'm *quite* sure they'll be making money hand over fist.

Post-Revolution Iran, but Orthodox, you mean having the Russian Orthodox Patriarch as the power behind the Government? Well, having it happen before the last decade of the 20th century would be a nice vibe. :) However, I'm not sure its possible for the Russian Orthodox church to be as decentralized as the Shia leadership has been. Note, Today I found out that the use of Ayatollah doesn't become common iOTL until the 1940s

Hmm. Ebb and flow in the relationship between Tokyo and Nanking... That implies that they could actually be something other than eternal enemies... :)

And I notice that neither Richmond or Rome is in your list. (And if Ankara was on your list, it would *definitely* indicate who won the IG/O conflict)
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Hmm. In terms of the biggest countries in the world as of the year 2000. Russia is almost certainly certainly number 1 unless something ugly happens (Japan and China team up to take most of Asiatic Russia????)

Canada (without Quebec) and the US without the CSA (even if they end up with Baja) will both be smaller than OTL. China, *who knows*, even at the beginning of the 20th century, I'm not sure that ending up without pieces of Tibet/Xinjiang that they have iOTL would cause significant issues... (Run the western border north from the OTL India/Burma/China tri-point at this point (1913) and you probably have less than 20,000 Han Chinese having to move east)

*SO* Brazil. When peace comes to South America, the fact that Argentina isn't gaining any land from Brazil almost certainly means that neither Peru nor Bolivia will gain much (or even any). And depending on how weakened either Colombia or Venezuela are in the CEW, they might even take some disputed land from them!

So with what's already been setup in the TL *and* slightly worse luck for China than they've had so far in their far west, Brazil could end up as the second largest country on earth.
 
Probably the single biggest winner of this timeline.
If we're also talking about the TL in general, in the long-term both Brazil and Mexico will be better-off. (Wank Mexico is almost the point of the TL, and I inferred Brazil from how they managed to achieve their first goal in the GAW and its book is called "The Empire of the Future")
 
Which side is Serbia on then
I'd thinm with Italy and Greece, for much the same reason they were in the First Balkan War. Russia could also plausibly gang up on the Ottomans if given the chance IMO, whereupon Romanian (to whatever extent they are independent) and (if they ever gain independence) Bulgarian involvement becomes a possibility. And how Britain reacts to this is also a question; their crises may force them to ignore a simple Greco-Italian incursion but the chances of them getting in on it skyrocket if Russia also goes in. Of course, if you want to avoid Russian involvement, it's easy to force an RCW when the best time for Russia to strike Istanbul comes. And Iran could also want in. It's very easy to see an Italo-Ottoman conflict escalate to the point of being the sequel to the CEW, honestly, outside of ending the Russo-Ottoman rivalry.
 
Hey KingSweden24, just wanting to ask - which countries do you think your timeline wanks or screws the most, intentionally or otherwise?

And are there any countries ITTL that have received little focus now that you think will receive a lot more in future?
France got wanked at first but now we’re coming to the screw rn and I have a feeling it’s going to keep up for the rest of this TL
Not that I mind. Kaiserreich for the win!!
 
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My long term plan for Russia is kinda hazy, but either “modern constitutionalized Tsarism taken to its natural conclusion” or “Post-Revolution Iran, but Orthodox” are on the table at this point in time. Don’t know if that counts as a success or wank; but it’ll most definitely be a very different vibe from OTL
I'd suggest the former over the latter - Tsarist Russia had a lot of secularism just bubbling underneath the surface of the supposedly devout Orthodox state, spurred on by the fact that the Russian Orthodox Church was unable to adequately serve the rapidly growing urban areas IOTL, a trend I suspect will only accelerate with the fact that Russia is more industrialized than OTL 1915, and that likely won't change as time goes on.
 
Probably the single biggest winner of this timeline.
If we're also talking about the TL in general, in the long-term both Brazil and Mexico will be better-off. (Wank Mexico is almost the point of the TL, and I inferred Brazil from how they managed to achieve their first goal in the GAW and its book is called "The Empire of the Future")
France got wanked at first but now we’re coming to the screw rn and I have a feeling it’s going to keep up for the rest of this TL
Not that I mind. Kaiserreich for the win!!
We’re rapidly reaching the point where previous wanks can and will pivot to hardcore screws, granted, so what’s come before is not necessarily a harbinger of what is to come (see: Chile, Republic of)
I'd suggest the former over the latter - Tsarist Russia had a lot of secularism just bubbling underneath the surface of the supposedly devout Orthodox state, spurred on by the fact that the Russian Orthodox Church was unable to adequately serve the rapidly growing urban areas IOTL, a trend I suspect will only accelerate with the fact that Russia is more industrialized than OTL 1915, and that likely won't change as time goes on.
Indeed, that’ll be a theme of my update on Russian occultism (it may indeed have been you who gave me the idea). Though to clarify, Russia is less developed ITTL 1915, rather than more. No Anglo-French investment stream, and the Germans and Swedes don’t have quite the same capital to splurge on Russia
I'd thinm with Italy and Greece, for much the same reason they were in the First Balkan War. Russia could also plausibly gang up on the Ottomans if given the chance IMO, whereupon Romanian (to whatever extent they are independent) and (if they ever gain independence) Bulgarian involvement becomes a possibility. And how Britain reacts to this is also a question; their crises may force them to ignore a simple Greco-Italian incursion but the chances of them getting in on it skyrocket if Russia also goes in. Of course, if you want to avoid Russian involvement, it's easy to force an RCW when the best time for Russia to strike Istanbul comes. And Iran could also want in. It's very easy to see an Italo-Ottoman conflict escalate to the point of being the sequel to the CEW, honestly, outside of ending the Russo-Ottoman rivalry.
Max chaos would be Russia going to war with the Italo-Greco-Serbo-Montenegrin alliance because it chafes at at Italian influence over its “rightful” place in the Orthodox ekumenoi, but also attacking the collapsing Ottomans at the same time

Bonus points if this is what gives the Ottomans a partial reprieve, lol
Hmm. Which side is Serbia on then. Not sure where the advantages are. Which reminds me, what is the status of Romania and Bulgaria. Have they been pried from Ottoman control?

As long as Switzerland keeps things in balance, I'm *quite* sure they'll be making money hand over fist.

Post-Revolution Iran, but Orthodox, you mean having the Russian Orthodox Patriarch as the power behind the Government? Well, having it happen before the last decade of the 20th century would be a nice vibe. :) However, I'm not sure its possible for the Russian Orthodox church to be as decentralized as the Shia leadership has been. Note, Today I found out that the use of Ayatollah doesn't become common iOTL until the 1940s

Hmm. Ebb and flow in the relationship between Tokyo and Nanking... That implies that they could actually be something other than eternal enemies... :)

And I notice that neither Richmond or Rome is in your list. (And if Ankara was on your list, it would *definitely* indicate who won the IG/O conflict)
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Hmm. In terms of the biggest countries in the world as of the year 2000. Russia is almost certainly certainly number 1 unless something ugly happens (Japan and China team up to take most of Asiatic Russia????)

Canada (without Quebec) and the US without the CSA (even if they end up with Baja) will both be smaller than OTL. China, *who knows*, even at the beginning of the 20th century, I'm not sure that ending up without pieces of Tibet/Xinjiang that they have iOTL would cause significant issues... (Run the western border north from the OTL India/Burma/China tri-point at this point (1913) and you probably have less than 20,000 Han Chinese having to move east)

*SO* Brazil. When peace comes to South America, the fact that Argentina isn't gaining any land from Brazil almost certainly means that neither Peru nor Bolivia will gain much (or even any). And depending on how weakened either Colombia or Venezuela are in the CEW, they might even take some disputed land from them!

So with what's already been setup in the TL *and* slightly worse luck for China than they've had so far in their far west, Brazil could end up as the second largest country on earth.
Patriarch Kirill at the head of a massive, resource rich and revanchist power seeking to export a particularly militant brand of Orthodoxy… eeek

And yes, Brazil probably winds up at least second or third. US does have Alaska as what brings it into those higher echelons, though
 
Indeed, that’ll be a theme of my update on Russian occultism (it may indeed have been you who gave me the idea). Though to clarify, Russia is less developed ITTL 1915, rather than more. No Anglo-French investment stream, and the Germans and Swedes don’t have quite the same capital to splurge on Russia

Patriarch Kirill at the head of a massive, resource rich and revanchist power seeking to export a particularly militant brand of Orthodoxy… eeek
I'd argue it'd be hard to get Russia to that sort of theocratic state, as discussed above. But not impossible, especially if you have almost the entirety of the 20th century to very slowly tilt key factors to it. As it was OTL the Iranian Revolution resulting in the theocratic Shia state we know today was by no means inevitable and took a lot of factors playing out just right for it to happen.

And let's be honest, the slowly tilting of making those factors come together perfectly is exactly the sort of content that we love to see in a timeline. It's like cooking together a great meal and watching it slowly come together
 
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