Taft Victorious:A 1912 election TL

Please feel free to correct any historical errors you see.

William Howard Taft wins the 1912 election
Chapter 1: 1909-1914

From America the Great ( 2005, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River) William Howard Taft's first term was a mixed one. On the one hand, he was well known for his successful foreign policy. On the other hand, Taft was known for his poor relations with progressives, which eventually led to the disaster that was the 1920 election. Progressives accused Taft of coddling up with corporations and violating the spirit of Teddy Roosevelt(particularly after the latter's death[1]). By 1912, the Progressives felt thoroughly unrepresented, justifiably or not, by the White house and the Taft administration. In that year, Senator Robert LaFolette declared his candidacy for president, running as a member of the Progressive party, a political party that he founded. He would only win South Dakota and his home state of Wisconsin in the 1912 elections.

The election of 1912 was a success for the Republicans. Although it was not a victory the size of 1908, Taft still had a respectable victory over Wilson and his Vice presidential Nominee Thomas Marshall. Taft and his new vice president Butler [2] were inaugurated on March 4, and that was that.

Taft was instantly confronted by a crisis. The various nations of the Balkans had ganged up on the Ottoman empire and split its former lands up amongst themselves[3]. Bulgaria, however, felt as if it had not gotten enough land, and declared war on its former allies on June 2nd. President Taft tried his best to negotiate a peace treaty, but to no avail. The war would end on June 30th, in an Bulgarian defeat. The treaty of Belgrade forced Bulgaria give up East Thrace,to the Ottomans, The port of Dedeagatch, to Greece, and southern Dobruduja, and parts of Macedonia to Serbia[4].

At home, 1913 had something else in store for him. On August 7th, a hurricane (later known as the Great Florida Hurricane), went over southern Florida, severely displacing the people of the region. After entering the gulf of Mexico, the Hurricane turned around and struck Northern Florida, causing the deaths of many[5]. Taft was almost instantaneously criticized for his mismanagement of the disaster.

The 1914 congressional elections saw slim gains for the democrats, although they still didn't have control of any of the houses.

From Powder keg on the Danube: A history of Austro-Hungary, 1867-1920 (1967, Johnson Publishing, Fort Worth) The Zrenjanin incident, as every schoolchild knows, was the spark that started the Zrenjanin War. The facts are simple: Archduke Franz Ferdinand was on a brief visit to the town of Zrenjanin on July 4th, 1914. Gavrilo Princip, a member of the secret organization known as the Black Hand, attempted to assassinate the Archduke while he was making a speech. However, Franz Ferdinand dodged the bullet. Nevertheless, Austro-Hungary was in an uproar. When members of the Serbian military were implicated in the assassination, Austro-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Almost instantly, Russia and Germany began to intervene on the Serbian and Austro-Hungarian sides, respectively. Belgium, France, Montenegro, Rumania, Portugal, The United Kingdom and Greece would intervene on the side of Serbia, while Bulgaria would intervene on Austro-Hungary's side. The Zrenjanin war[6] had begun.


[1]. This is the POD.
[2]. Like OTL, James Sherman dies.
[3]. this war goes like OTL.
[4]. The seizure of Dedeagatch( Alexandroupoli) did not happen in the Second Balkan war. It occurred in the ATL due to less Russian support of Bulgaria.
[5]. This has some pretty large effects. For example, Miami doesn't become a major city.
[6]. This is the ATL name for WWI.
 
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[...] which eventually led to the disaster that was the 1920 election. Progressives accused Taft of coddling up with corporations and violating the spirit of Teddy Roosevelt(particularly after the latter's death[1]). By 1912, the Progressives felt thoroughly unrepresented, justifiably or not, by the White house and the Taft administration. In that year, Senator Robert LaFolette declared his candidacy for president, running as a member of the Progressive party, a political party that he founded. He would only win South Dakota and his home state of Wisconsin in the 1912 elections.

Interesting. Most TL's that feature a third-party Progressive Party have TR leading the movement. I'm looking forward to reading what you come up with for the Taft administration, ATL's WWI, and further down the line.
 
I certainly like this idea.

For immediate concerns I am guessing Taft will be a true neutral unlike Germanophobe Wilson simply looking for an excuse to go to war. For one I could see the Habsburgs surviving since I don't think Taft would basi\cally tell Kaiser Karl were to put it. Karl might actually be able to make his earlier peace in this scenario of things play out similar to OTL.

I wonder if Taft will still enter the Supreme Court?
 
The election of 1912 was a success for the Republicans. Although it was not a victory the size of 1908, Taft still had a respectable victory over Wilson and his Vice presidential Nominee Thomas Marshall. Taft and his new vice president Butler [2] were inaugurated on March 4, and that was that.


How on earth does that happen?

The Republicans were on the ropes long before TR threw his hat into the ring. They were creamed at the mid-term elections in 1910, losing ten Seantors and over fifty Representatives. It will take a miracle for them to win in 1912, even in a straight fight.
 
Taft and Roosevelt got about 26% and 23%. at those totals together, and you beat Wilson


That's the trouble though. You can't put them together. They were deeply at odds. Many of those who voted for Taft would not have voted for Roosevelt, and vice versa.

Look at the Congressional races. Many if not most of those were two-way, but it didn't help. The Democrats picked up another 62 HoR seats on top of the 56 they'd gained in 1910. In the Senate they added nine further gains to their ten at mid-term. In the House particularly it was a total slaughter, leaving only 127 Republicans agaiinst 290 Democrats.

The point was rubbed home in 1916, when there was a straight fight. Hughes was unable to attract enough Progressives to defeat Wilson. Four years earlier, Taft would have had the same problem in spades.
 
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