What if: Kennedy resignation for health reasons instead of assasination in 1963?

Aisha Clan-Clan · Jun 17, 2022

So, let's say that JFK's addison's disease proceeds a bit faster, he's rather ill so on 11/22/1963 instead of being in Dallas, he's in Washington DC to announce his resignation from the Presidency in favor of elevating Johnson after publicly admitting to his health problems, even apologizing for hiding them. Instead of Johnson's administration starting as the result of a popular for the time POTUS being martyred it's the result of that president admitting he's too ill to get into office.

What next 1963-2022? I strongly suspect the primary difference is that you'd have some sort of national healthcare in the US after the mid 1960s with a live if ailing JFK able to be brought out by LBJ help push it combined with somewhat more of an interest in the subject than OTL[1] but otherwise mostly similar evolution to OTL given that you've got LBJ, Vietnam and probably similar intra-party dynamics to OTL's 1960s in the dems prolly all playing out in recognizable ways to OTL.

Well okay, there'd be visibly less conspiracy theories going around and weaker conspiratorial thinking without the question of "who assasinated JFK?" to come up. Maybe this feeds into somewhat weaker goldbug/libertarian movement given how I've run into libertarian/conservative types who've said JFK got whacked because he wanted to go back to gold.

[1] JFK wanted to expand on healthcare OTL and in this TL you have both his health crisis plus JFK himself able to bring up the subject.

Dagoth Ur · Jun 17, 2022

Civil rights act might not pass in 1964, or it might not be so strong.

Joseph Weaver · Jun 18, 2022

Hmmm interesting question though I don't suspect much difference from 63-64, other than a stronger Medicare maybe even Universal healthcare also Johnson wins in a not as big landslide in 64. The big change that I could possibly see happening is no Vietnam which changes a whole lot.

Aisha Clan-Clan · Jun 18, 2022

Dagoth Ur said:
Civil rights act might not pass in 1964, or it might not be so strong.

Eh, LBJ has his congressional majorities as per OTL. I think roughly similar odds of passage to OTL but imo we'd get _something_.

dartingfog · Jun 18, 2022

Aisha Clan-Clan said:
Eh, LBJ has his congressional majorities as per OTL. I think roughly similar odds of passage to OTL but imo we'd get _something_.

Maybe, but I recall that LBJ motivated his skeptical caucus to vote for civil rights legislation by basically saying that "it's what Kennedy would have wanted." Can't do that if Kennedy is still alive.

Aisha Clan-Clan · Jun 18, 2022

dartingfog said:
Maybe, but I recall that LBJ motivated his skeptical caucus to vote for civil rights legislation by basically saying that "it's what Kennedy would have wanted." Can't do that if Kennedy is still alive.

Maybe. OTOH you hae JFK himself alive and in poor health able to make the case to them himself.

dartingfog · Jun 18, 2022

Aisha Clan-Clan said:
Maybe. OTOH you hae JFK himself alive and in poor health able to make the case to them himself.

In OTL, the southern Democrats were very much against civil rights legislation. A sick former President that they didn't particularly like isn't going to be able to make the same case that Johnson did IOTL. Those who voted in favor of civil rights did so out of loyalty to party and to a martyred former President.

Addison's is a progressive disease, but Kennedy isn't going to be remarkably worse off in '64 or '65 than he was in '63. It's a natural illness and while it may gain some sympathy, he's not likely to be very impaired. Contrast that with Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt (albeit heavily impaired) and even then wasn't able to motivate Congress to pass gun control laws.

GDIS Pathe · Jun 19, 2022

dartingfog said:
In OTL, the southern Democrats were very much against civil rights legislation. A sick former President that they didn't particularly like isn't going to be able to make the same case that Johnson did IOTL. Those who voted in favor of civil rights did so out of loyalty to party and to a martyred former President.

Addison's is a progressive disease, but Kennedy isn't going to be remarkably worse off in '64 or '65 than he was in '63. It's a natural illness and while it may gain some sympathy, he's not likely to be very impaired. Contrast that with Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt (albeit heavily impaired) and even then wasn't able to motivate Congress to pass gun control laws.

Almost all the Southern Democrats already voted against Civil Rights legislation OTL. The primary road block were the various tricks Dixiecrats were using to stymie the bill in committee, but Johnson and Mike Mansfield (D-MT, Senate Majority leader) could and did find ways around that, both through their own procedural slights of hand, and by working with the Republicans to gain enough votes to break the filibuster.