What would a successful Russian Republic look like?

[connorCD]

I know this kind of question has probably been done to death, but its something that I've been thinking about for a bit. The idea of a truly democratic Russia and its impact on the world fascinates me and while there are a number of ways this could be achieved, a surviving Russian Republic is one I want to focus on here. I honestly can't think of a proper POD that is required for the republic to survive so forgive me if this sounds half baked , but let's just say that Lenin (any maybe other prominent bolsheviks) die before they get the chance to spark the October revolution and the Kerensky government doesn't flounder its own chances. Let's also say that it doesn't descend into fascism/authoritarianism in the coming years.

• What does the government of the republic look like? Does it resemble anything like the current Russian government just with some actual democratic institutions or is it something more radical?
• What do the borders of the republic look like? Would it be anymore successful than the soviets were in retaining the former empire's territories? less so? about the same?
• What about Russian society and culture? How different would that look without the preeminence of the CPSU?

 

[Karl the Writer]

Any post WW1 election would likely see the SRs elected with a sizable popular mandate. The Russian left was considerably more popular in the street than the center, largely due to the centers’ perceived failure to bring democratic reforms in the 1905 Revolution. And among the left, the SRs political platform best suited the primarily peasant and peasant descended Russian people. It called for land reform that would divide land into tenant plots for small holding peasants. I could see them getting into a coalition with the RSDLP, who would appeal to the urban working class. This would leave the new government with a large mandate to govern, only facing mild parliamentary opposition from the Kadets.

Times are not going to be good for the Russian Republic. It would inherit the imperial war debts of the Russian Empire along with a massive army that needs to be demobilized and an economy that is being choked to death by wartime disruptions. For the Republic to survive, it needs to exit the war as soon as possible. With capable diplomats, the Russians would probably cede Congress Poland, Lithuania, Courland, Livonia, and potentially Riga to the CP. Maybe a few provinces in the Caucasus to the Turks. Roughly in line with what the front looked like at that time. This is what the Germans initially thought they could get from the Russians. They got more because of Trotsky’s ‘No War, No Peace’ strategy. This would sting the new government but it’s better than Brest Litovsk. Finland also gets split off.

In regards to national movements, I could see the Russian Republic acting in a similar way to how the UK dealt with the Scottish. That is to say, some autonomy and their own legislature. Off the top of my head, I’m going to say Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia get this treatment. I could definitely see something similar in regards to Central Asia, but Russian control over the area was always weak and it would take some time for the Republic to reassert its hegemony. I’m also not sure what the status of smaller Caucasian ethnicities would be. The constituent states would likely be dominated by agrarian socialists like the ones governing the country.

As for democracy, I would say it would be fairly democratic. The SRs and their RSDLP allies were committed to democracy, though the former were known for their terrorism campaign against Tsarist officials. Worst case scenario, we get something like PRI Mexico.

 

[connorCD]

For the Republic to survive, it needs to exit the war as soon as possible. With capable diplomats, the Russians would probably cede Congress Poland, Lithuania, Courland, Livonia, and potentially Riga to the CP. Maybe a few provinces in the Caucasus to the Turks. Roughly in line with what the front looked like at that time. This is what the Germans initially thought they could get from the Russians. They got more because of Trotsky’s ‘No War, No Peace’ strategy. This would sting the new government but it’s better than Brest Litovsk. Finland also gets split off.

Would you say this would lead to the Central Powers winning WW1 or do you think the end result would roughly be the same?

 

[RedSword12]

Any post WW1 election would likely see the SRs elected with a sizable popular mandate. The Russian left was considerably more popular in the street than the center, largely due to the centers’ perceived failure to bring democratic reforms in the 1905 Revolution. And among the left, the SRs political platform best suited the primarily peasant and peasant descended Russian people. It called for land reform that would divide land into tenant plots for small holding peasants. I could see them getting into a coalition with the RSDLP, who would appeal to the urban working class. This would leave the new government with a large mandate to govern, only facing mild parliamentary opposition from the Kadets.

Times are not going to be good for the Russian Republic. It would inherit the imperial war debts of the Russian Empire along with a massive army that needs to be demobilized and an economy that is being choked to death by wartime disruptions. For the Republic to survive, it needs to exit the war as soon as possible. With capable diplomats, the Russians would probably cede Congress Poland, Lithuania, Courland, Livonia, and potentially Riga to the CP. Maybe a few provinces in the Caucasus to the Turks. Roughly in line with what the front looked like at that time. This is what the Germans initially thought they could get from the Russians. They got more because of Trotsky’s ‘No War, No Peace’ strategy. This would sting the new government but it’s better than Brest Litovsk. Finland also gets split off.

In regards to national movements, I could see the Russian Republic acting in a similar way to how the UK dealt with the Scottish. That is to say, some autonomy and their own legislature. Off the top of my head, I’m going to say Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia get this treatment. I could definitely see something similar in regards to Central Asia, but Russian control over the area was always weak and it would take some time for the Republic to reassert its hegemony. I’m also not sure what the status of smaller Caucasian ethnicities would be. The constituent states would likely be dominated by agrarian socialists like the ones governing the country.

As for democracy, I would say it would be fairly democratic. The SRs and their RSDLP allies were committed to democracy, though the former were known for their terrorism campaign against Tsarist officials. Worst case scenario, we get something like PRI Mexico.

The problem was that Lenin's faction among the Bolsheviks was the only major political party urging for peace with the Central Powers. The Left SR's were vehemently against this, to the extent that they assassinated the German ambassador in Moscow in an attempt to force Lenin to resume hostilities.

 

[Karl the Writer]

Would you say this would lead to the Central Powers winning WW1 or do you think the end result would roughly be the same?

Maybe, maybe not. Less resources would have to be spent holding down the East compared to ITOL and that would free up troops for the Western Front. That would tip the scale even further towards the CP in terms of divisions. Perhaps we could see an even more devastating Spring Offensive for the Entente. Basic issues with supply are still going to be a factor though, and if the Germans lose momentum like I think they would, the sheer number of Americans would eventually force Germany to call for peace terms as IOTL.

The problem was that Lenin's faction among the Bolsheviks was the only major political party urging for peace with the Central Powers. The Left SR's were vehemently against this, to the extent that they assassinated the German ambassador in Moscow in an attempt to force Lenin to resume hostilities.

Well… yes. This scenario requires that the Russian Republic exit the war, so lets just say that they do for some reason.

 

[Bellacinos]

Have Teddy Roosevelt beat Wilson in 1912 election US gets involved in WW1 in 1915 after sinking of Lusitania. This gives the the Russians the relief they need and Germany surrenders in 1917 under a Kerensky government which makes it popular enough to survive and a somewhat democratic Russia takes form with no
Bolshevik revolution.

 

[Lalli]

Have Teddy Roosevelt beat Wilson in 1912 election US gets involved in WW1 in 1915 after sinking of Lusitania. This gives the the Russians the relief they need and Germany surrenders in 1917 under a Kerensky government which makes it popular enough to survive and a somewhat democratic Russia takes form with no
Bolshevik revolution.

This might help Russian war effort go much better already before 1917 so whole February Revolution is butterflied.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I know this kind of question has probably been done to death, but its something that I've been thinking about for a bit. The idea of a truly democratic Russia and its impact on the world fascinates me and while there are a number of ways this could be achieved, a surviving Russian Republic is one I want to focus on here. I honestly can't think of a proper POD that is required for the republic to survive so forgive me if this sounds half baked , but let's just say that Lenin (any maybe other prominent bolsheviks) die before they get the chance to spark the October revolution and the Kerensky government doesn't flounder its own chances. Let's also say that it doesn't descend into fascism/authoritarianism in the coming years.

1. What does the government of the republic look like? Does it resemble anything like the current Russian government just with some actual democratic institutions or is it something more radical?
2. What do the borders of the republic look like? Would it be anymore successful than the soviets were in retaining the former empire's territories? less so? about the same?
3. What about Russian society and culture? How different would that look without the preeminence of the CPSU?

1. It is democratic as the SRs were committed towards democracy.
2. It would have the pre-WW1 borders of the Russian Empire since the Petrograd Soviet made it clear that it wouldn't allow any imperial annexations, at best they also get an international zone around the Sea of Marmara. It would be very unstable in its early years due to constant infighting between the Petrograd Soviet and the Provisional Government. among the members of these two governments
3. The cities would be extremely socialists but I'm interested in what the countryside would look like since apart from the Bolsheviks the Socialists didn't have a very good grip over it as their base of support was among industrial workers. Russia would be more backwards in the short term but in the long run its economy would be much better and it wouldn't lose millions in RCW, Holodomor and WW2.

Anyways your POD is enough as all other political parties supported continuing the war.

This might help Russian war effort go much better already before 1917 so whole February Revolution is butterflied.

There is not that much they can do, the Russian railroad network is simply not enough to transport all supplies and a little extra credit won't prevent riots from deposing the Tsar, as Nicky II sort of did everything wrong to allow his deposal.