Following the 1820 Porto Revolution, a liberal government had taken over Portugal and demanded that King João VI - who had been living in Brazil since 1808 following the Napoleonic invasion of Portugal- return to Europe. IOTL, he accepted fearing that he would lose the Portuguese crown. But WI for some reason he refuses to return? Would we see a Portuguese Republic be proclaimed? Would Brazil send an expedition to retake Portugal and force them to accept the new status quo? Would Brazil expand more without the costly Independence War and treaties?
Besides the war and treaties there's also the fact that before all that, João VI took the royal treasury with him on his way out, along with most of the liquid assets of the first Banco do Brasil, which definitely didn't help matters any...
I forgot to mention that, the banking system of Brazil will be decades ahead of OTL, which is a big help of course
unprincipled peter
Donor
Been a while since I've read up on it, but...
I don't think Joao really had a choice. I think the military, especially the Navy, was pro-Portugal, and forced his return.
He tried sending Pedro in his place, but that was nixed right away.
The court elite were more than ready to return to Portugal, and may not have been happy with the decision to remain, putting Joao's support base at risk. The colonial elite were mixed about the Portuguese influx. It raised their status, but there were a lot left out.
Don't remember the rebellion being all that expensive. Bigger was taking the treasury.
IF Joao manages to keep control of Brazil, Portugal likely becomes a republic.
I don't think Joao really had a choice. I think the military, especially the Navy, was pro-Portugal, and forced his return.
He tried sending Pedro in his place, but that was nixed right away.
The court elite were more than ready to return to Portugal, and may not have been happy with the decision to remain, putting Joao's support base at risk. The colonial elite were mixed about the Portuguese influx. It raised their status, but there were a lot left out.
Don't remember the rebellion being all that expensive. Bigger was taking the treasury.
IF Joao manages to keep control of Brazil, Portugal likely becomes a republic.
Hm... it's really hard to predict what will happen. Would João's entire family stay with him in Brazil? If yes, I feel it would be necessary to dig very deep to find a new monarch, so the Cortes will most likely end up reluctantly proclaiming a republic.
I suppose that a Brazilian invasion of Portugal would be likely, and it could go either way. Brazil would take all of the empire outside Madeira and Azores if the separation still happens (more of a curse than a blessing in the long term).
But I feel we need to take a step back first. Is it guaranteed that João will continue to be firmly in control in Brazil? I remember reading that news of a liberal revolution in Portugal galvanised Brazilian liberals at first, who set up provisional juntas in various parts of the country. Some of these juntas (Belem and Salvador, I believe) even went as far as to reject the authority of Rio de Janeiro and declare loyalty to the new Lisbon government *only* . I also remember reading that the Portuguese troops stationed in Brazil were very sympathetic to the liberal movement, almost managed to force Pedro to leave as well.
One might ask the question if João even has enough support to resist the pressure to return, without the independence movement having had the time to grow as a result of the early actions of the Cortes, and without guarantees of a constitutional government to get Brazilian liberals on his side (unlike Pedro, João was an absolutist, and his refusal to compromise with the Portuguese revolutionaries would likely be justified as an exertion of his divine right to rule). Between sympathisers of the Lisbon government (both Portuguese and Brazilian), Brazilians liberals who might otherwise be interested in independence but resent his absolutism, and separatists wanting to create independent republics in various parts of the country (an idea that attracted significant levels of support long before Brazilian independence as a single country was even considered), it seems to me that he would face intense pressure from all sides.
It may work out, but imo it's quite possible that his rule over Brazil simply disintegrates
I suppose that a Brazilian invasion of Portugal would be likely, and it could go either way. Brazil would take all of the empire outside Madeira and Azores if the separation still happens (more of a curse than a blessing in the long term).
But I feel we need to take a step back first. Is it guaranteed that João will continue to be firmly in control in Brazil? I remember reading that news of a liberal revolution in Portugal galvanised Brazilian liberals at first, who set up provisional juntas in various parts of the country. Some of these juntas (Belem and Salvador, I believe) even went as far as to reject the authority of Rio de Janeiro and declare loyalty to the new Lisbon government *only* . I also remember reading that the Portuguese troops stationed in Brazil were very sympathetic to the liberal movement, almost managed to force Pedro to leave as well.
One might ask the question if João even has enough support to resist the pressure to return, without the independence movement having had the time to grow as a result of the early actions of the Cortes, and without guarantees of a constitutional government to get Brazilian liberals on his side (unlike Pedro, João was an absolutist, and his refusal to compromise with the Portuguese revolutionaries would likely be justified as an exertion of his divine right to rule). Between sympathisers of the Lisbon government (both Portuguese and Brazilian), Brazilians liberals who might otherwise be interested in independence but resent his absolutism, and separatists wanting to create independent republics in various parts of the country (an idea that attracted significant levels of support long before Brazilian independence as a single country was even considered), it seems to me that he would face intense pressure from all sides.
It may work out, but imo it's quite possible that his rule over Brazil simply disintegrates
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Technically the War itself wasn't that costly, but the peace treaty was as it forced Brazil to pay off Portugal's foreign debt to Britain (without having any resources basically)
That's very interesting, I could see Northern Brazil and most of the Northeast either remaining a part of the Portuguese Republic or becoming independent republics on their own right. But honestly I don't think Southern, Center and especially Southeast Brazil would disintegrate, João VI was an absolutist but he wasn't as reckless as to alienate the entirety of the Rio de Janeiro elites, so maybe the Northeast (Pernambuco and Bahia) and the North (the entirety of the North region of OTL Brazil) become independent countries while the rest of the country remains loyal to João VI
Yeah, I think the OTL North Region + Maranhão (essentially a restoration of the former State of Maranhão and Grão-Pará, which was administered separately from the rest of Brazil for two periods in colonial history) would be a likely place for a sort of Portuguese Canada in South America.
In the northeast, there was a strong loyalist current in Bahia iirc, but Pernambuco was a powder keg of republican separatism. I would say that some kind of republican confederation is most likely for the region in the long run.
I agree about João likely being able to retain control over the southeast, even if he would not be too comfortable.
I frankly don't know about the South. Maybe it goes with the Southeast, or maybe it forms its own independent republic...
In a desintegrated royal authority scenario, I think most of the empire would declare for Portugal eventually, but Angola might go with southeastern Brazil. It would be funny if TTL Brazil ended up with much less South American territory, *but* with an African colony
Good point. IMO the South wouldn't want to become an independent republic as it would be directly threatened by Argentine territorial ambitions in the region, so it would require military assistance from João
unprincipled peter
Donor
Even though Joao wanted Pedro to go in his place, I think it would be disaster to send an heir to Portugal. Portugal likely deposes Joao and installs the heir as ruler of Portugal. Pedro is moderate enough to work with the liberals in Portugal, and Miguel would champion the conservative cause, as he did OTL, which led to the conservatives returning to power, and Joao pushing Miguel aside to regain power. With Joao insisting on remaining in Brazil, he loses all control in Portugal, as the factions there use a heir to further their cause.
And let's not forget the role of Britain. They want to separate Brazil from Portugal, but they also likely don't want a republic in Portugal. They also don't want anything resembling a strong Brazil. They may actively work to ensure that Brazil doesn't get any of the rest of the Portuguese Empire.
Well, I don’t think Britain would really have a regime preference for Portugal. But yeah, if Pedro gets sent to Portugal I think it's rather straightforward that he would be installed as king by the Cortes
unprincipled peter
Donor
OTL, the far south sought independence. Of course, this was following the loss of the Cisplatine War, and the formation of an Uruguayan buffer state, concurrent with the almost disintegration of Brazil during the Regency period.
Here, we haven't had the Cisplatine War. The South will only seek military shelter IF Brazil looks like it can provide it. Much depends on the state of this alt Joao led Brazil. A Joao that is barely keeping his new country together may not be seen as a good protector.
Yes, both preferred to be governed by Portugal (or at least the elite preferred it). Salvador ended up becoming a polarized provincial capital, there was a (large) group of defenders of Lisbon. Another “aristocracy” group that defended a Brazilian state. And a “third way” that wanted independent provincial governments.
It's more complex than that. The War of Independence can be considered a Portuguese-Brazilian civil war, as Portuguese and Brazilians fought on both sides. So certain troops were in favor of the revolt or others were not. There was a split in the Portuguese-Brazilian Army that occupied Cisplatina (Uruguay). Portuguese regiments retreated to Montevideo and were surrounded by their former comrades. In the remote and sparsely populated north of Pará and Maranhão, pro-Portuguese junta declared loyalty to Portugal. Pernambuco was in favor of independence, but in Bahia, there was no consensus among the population.
As a whole, Portugal is playing against time, the longer the war goes on, the worse off they are. The Portuguese advantage was a larger navy than the Brazilian one. With the Brazilian navy having 38 ships and the Portuguese 55 in 1822. But even with the navy it is a fight against time, two years later the Brazilian navy would reach 90 ships while the Portuguese remained at the same size. With Portugal losing at sea after Brazilian naval growth.
PS: Portuguese troops were a minority in the country. We see this in the most pro-Portugal province, in the region. The interior and the capital, Oeiras, remained under the control of Portuguese troops, and achieved victory in the battle of Jenipapo. But with certain key cities, especially Parnaíba going in favor of brazil. They ended up making the Portuguese victory impossible.
Meh, this is a two-way street. We have supporters from Rio de Janeiro (Portuguese and Brazilian alike)
This will be the biggest factor in how much support Portugal can get from the locals. The biggest problem with this was the fact that Portugal wanted to recolonize the country. If it were a contest between absolitism and liberals in the dual realm, the liberals would win. The problem was to gain majority Brazilian support in a project to kill the Brazilian kingdom.
Interestingly, separatists were not very strong during this period (especially when compared to pro-Portugal and pro-Brazil groups). For example, the Uruguayans revolted in 1825 not out of a desire for independence but as a result of promises of autonomy not fulfilled by the central government of Rio de Janeiro.
Certainly, this would probably lead him to have to reach a compromise with the Brazilian elites in order to have a cohesive mass. Which could make the country more decentralized in the future.
I tend to agree with @Phalamus , the best possible result for Portugal is to be able to keep Maranão and Grão Para.
A curious thing is that this commitment between the king and the elites keeps Cisplatina from revolting.
Less Canadian and more English Normandy. A region with a stronger neighboring power will want the region back in the long term. As a whole, Portugal losing Brazil but receiving money was the best thing for them. Keeping part of Brazil means a round 2 against Brazil. And in the OTL they lost naval superiority against the country in 2 years of war. Maybe it will take 20 or 40 years, but overall Portugal is much weaker in maintaining the region.
No, because the court wanted the death of Brazil, its relegation from kingdom to colony, and its exploitation in favor of Lisbon.
As a whole the courts were living in a fantasy world, in which they were the stronger of the two kingdoms. Portugal in 1820 had 3.29 million people, Brazil had 4.71 million. In 1850 Portugal had 3.82 million and Brazil had 7.25 million. Instead of accepting that they were the lesser of the two and simply reforming an economic agreement between the kingdoms. They tried to break the stronger of the two and what saved the rest of the Portuguese empire was English interference.
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The issue here is that ITTL people would have a hard time figuring out what the conflict is about at first. The stated purpose of the 1820 revolution was to "bring back the king, convene the Cortes and write a constitution." Neither the Sinédrio nor the provisional Lisbon junta had said anything about the future of government in Brazil by the time they asked João to return.
Naturally, the Brazilian elites were anxious because they had grown accustomed to having the king close by, but still, Brazilian deputies to the Cortes arrived in Lisbon adamantly denying any separatist intent. Their political project (of those not from Grão-Pará) was for a dual kindgdom with separate governments and legislatures, but under a political and economic union. This was dismissed very early, but still, the 1822 constitution confirmed Brazil's status as a "kingdom" (which had always been purely honorific, Algarve had the same status) and afforded it representation in the Cortes on the same terms as Portugal (with 1 deputy for every 30,000 inhabitants). Thus, the real breaking point that made the war of independence inevitable was a series of egregious decrees related to trade and navigation, namely those that impose discriminatory tariffs and taxes to divert commerce of Brazilian goods to Lisbon (they did not go as far as reinstating the ban on foreign ships in Brazil, as that wasn't considered a realistic prospect, but the intent was clearly the same). This all happened only after the Cortes had been elected and convened, the Brazilian deputies were seated, and a lot of tense debate had happened.
If João refused to return to Portugal when asked, it's fairly likely that it would seem like a conflict between liberalism and absolutism, though this would be counter-balanced by the anxieties of the Brazilian elites. It's hard to know what people would think...
I always assumed they had been largely subsumed by the Brazilian independence movement IOTL, which was based on the same enlightenment-based principles as earlier and later regional separatist movements. ITTL this would be harder, as the movement would be more reactionary in character and there would likely be no prospects of autonomy.
Though tbf, the thing is you never really know what John VI is going to do, because the man constantly vacillated between pragmatic statesman and reactionary bufoon...
Are you sure Brazil would want Grão-Pará that much? Historically, the region wasn't even always part of the same colony, and ITTL it would have sat out the formative years of the country, when Brazilian national identity really solidified. Also, it is my impression that it wasn't seen as a particularly desirable region during the 19th century. Just a quiet, pastoral place.
Add to that the need to find causus beli, the fairly strong natural defenses of the region, and the fact that Brazil would have its own problems to take care of (possibly even less so ITTL, with independence having come under an even less ideal leadership...).
I'm personally more inclined to believe that if Portugal loses Maranhão and Grão-Pará in the future, it's more likely to be for a local republican independence movement than for Brazil.
No, together with a constitution, the other open demands that were made by the Portuguese in the Liberal Revolution were:
- The return of the king d. João VI to Lisbon as a way to re-centralize the Portuguese empire in Portugal;
- That the king swore obedience to the Constitution;
- Recolonize Brazil with the aim of promoting Portugal's economic recovery based on the exploitation of the colony.
What was basically a continuation of the pre revolution situation. As a whole, for the courts to be successful, the kingdom of Brazil has to accept becoming a colony again. which the Brazilian elites didn’t want. I have to take my hat off to the liberal court, I've never seen a nation decide to implode its own empire.
Yes and no, you can get an idea. You have disputes about absolutism vs liberal. But the biggest conflict will become Portugal vs Brazil due to the courts' desire to recolonize Brazil.
The idea of the movement is reactionary comes from the idea that the dispute would be a civil war between absolitist and liberals. The problem is the fact that it is not a war of ideas but of disputes over which of the two kingdoms is superior to the other. You are looking through the lens of how the king remains absolute and the liberals of the dual kingdom come together to destroy this. But that's not the case. Furthermore, it is not difficult for the king to reach a compromise with Brazilian liberals. Which should take power away from Portuguese liberals. But the biggest problem is Brazil vs Portugal. Not liberals vs absolutists.
From the Portuguese point of view, the Liberal Revolution of Porto was harmed by the pressure from the Portuguese bourgeoisie for the recolonization of Brazil contributed to the shaking of relations between Brazil and Portugal. The dissatisfaction that was established here by the Portuguese attempts at recolonization resulted in the movement for independence.
Yes, what he will do will depend on the situation and the king's surroundings at the moment. We also have his son to play in this situation. Which was pro-Brazil.
Yes, not because it is valuable. Or the population is particularly well-liked by the Brazilians. But because it is considered part of the greater idea of Brazil. Not only that, but the region is too weak to resist a Brazilian advance. As we see in Cabanagem 10 years after independence and during the war of independence. Basically it was an irrelevant part of the kingdom, but part of it nonetheless. Basically it is the same thought that Portugal had about Brazil at the beginning of the 16th century.
reunification, is an easy casus belli.
What strong natural defenses of the region? The Amazon barrier is to the north, there is no good protection if the advance comes from the south. That's the reason they lost in the OTL, the population is very small and there are no good geographical boundaries. Furthermore, taking into account that the Portuguese navy was already smaller in the OTL after 2 years of war of independence. And Portugal is the weakest overall.
Brazil's biggest period of trouble comes with the regency of Dom Pedro 2. As a whole, for João 6 to gain local support he is forced to make a commitment or is simply deposed by his son. If the commitment to cisplatine province remains, the region that caused the most problems in the OTL will not revolt. As a whole the kingdom will be stable and with all the richness of the dual kingdom. Portugal, on the other hand, will have fought a more violent war, possibly losing Angola and not being able to pay its debts. The kingdom could very well declare bankruptcy.
If this happens, they will be swallowed by Brazil. the region does not have enough resources or population to survive alone. They are either part of Portugal or Brazil
Can you define what is exactly meant by "recolonize" here? The term was not really used by anyone in Portugal because technically speaking "colonies" did not exist. They were Portuguese territories that just happened to be located overseas.
What the word is really used to mean here is two things:
- The denial of a separate government for Brazil, which actually was only made explicit after João had returned and Cortes were in session, in the form of the forced dissolution of a Brazilian cabinet appointed by Dom Pedro.
- The discriminatory trade and navigation policies implemented my the Cortes, fairly late in their session, to direct foreign ships to Lisbon as much as possible
Well, no, not really. Before the revolution, Portugal-Brazil was an absolute monarchy. There were no legislatures in either side of the Atlantic, and neither were there exactly "governments" in the modern sense, just administrators appointed by the crown to run things in different parts of the country.
People talk a lot about Brazil's "elevation" to a kingdom, but in reality this was a purely symbolic act. Algarve was technically a kingdom too.
But when João is called back, the Cortes don't exist yet. People have incomplete information. I think this would change things a lot.
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