WI Spanish Flu has a 50% mortality rate?

Having just watched the movie Carriers recently and done some reading on super bugs (which we seem to get at an alarming rate) im merely curious as to what might happen if the most notorious bug in history had a higher mortality rate?

(apologies if this has been done before but searching yielded nothing so I've gone on.)
 
Labour shortages, adding to the effects of WW1/ If I recall most thoughts the Black death favoured workers against owners. I think this may also be there
 
Super bugs

In microbiology, microbes balance virulence vs lethality. Really lethal stuff burns itself out pretty quickly, e.g. Ebola, rabies, and other nasty stuff.
Even plague was only 40% lethal in bubonic form but @ 100% in pneumonic form. It's very easily spread in pneumonic form, but within six weeks, it kills everyone susceptible and the epidemic burns itself out, whereas many very virulent (easily spread) infections like chicken pox, herpes simplex, Epstein-Barr and so forth infect huge numbers of people but kill a miniscule proportion of people they infect.

What made Spanish/Ft. Riley flu so nasty in Europe was a mixture of moving millions of people from a variety of places in big herds from N. America, Asia, and Africa to Europe, which allowed the virus to infect folks of every ethnic group in one generation AND the effects of the Allied blockades on Germany and A-H, plus the disruptions of the Russian Revolution on food production/distribution so starvation/malnutrition made Europeans particularly susceptible to any flu, much less the "Spanish" flu which preferred infecting and killing nice healthy adults to the usual really young/old ones.

If Spanish flu gets that bad, expect a total trade shutdown, economic losses galore, and a very slow recovery curve. Cities get a lot healthier, both due to the reduced population and insistence on better sanitation in the aftermath. Actually it would lead to incredible prosperity per capita long term both due to less people and more emphasis on educating the folks that are around, but very rough transition between those states.
 
If it was that bad, might it burn out before becoming global?
I wonder about that too. Part of the reason it got so bad was because the war sucked up attention. If it is that much worse....

Still though, I've seen the charts and I think for young people it WAS nearly 40% lethal (cytokeine storms probably). So an even deadlier flu will hurt the younger generation (15-35 say) even worse. Labor shortages are only the start of it.
 
So that might unravel entire countries theoretically? I can see the short term being economic slump and national quarantine, but in the long term a more vibrant world.
 
In some places, the Spanish Flu had nearly 100% fatality rate. The Inuit as a population had no natural resistance in the gene pool to the Spanish Flu and almost entire villages died from the disease.

Torqumada
 
This might just Butterfly WWII away

It definitely does away with World War II as we know it; if nothing else, odds are very good that several people who played an important role in the OTL World War II are going to be dead. I'd also think that the need for rebuilding and recovering from the loss of half their population would make war far less palatable to anyone.

Of course, if the flu isn't evenly spread, it could cause all kinds of interestingness. If some nations are devastated and others aren't hurt too badly, that could seriously mess with the balance of power.
 

Highlander

Banned
I love Carriers - Chris Pine gave a very underrated performance in that movie.

The Spanish Flue did have 50% mortality - and higher - in Native American communities and India. I'll address why virulence doesn't necessarily effect lethality in influenza tomorrow (right now I am dead tired).
 
I love Carriers - Chris Pine gave a very underrated performance in that movie.

The Spanish Flue did have 50% mortality - and higher - in Native American communities and India. I'll address why virulence doesn't necessarily effect lethality in influenza tomorrow (right now I am dead tired).

So if it had an overall 50% mortality rate some of these communities might be wiped out completely?
 
Actually Spanish Flu victims who died were primarily young healthy adults.
The reason they tended to die appear to be "cytokine storms" - where immune reactions trigger further immune reactions until the entire system is overloaded and crashes.
 
Ok, thus far I've made three predictions about a world with a harsher Spanisj Flu

1. A devastated Native American population
2. A shorter economic depression follwed by long term prosperity
3. A radical change in politics favoring more workers rights, maybe a shift to the left in many countries
 
Actually Spanish Flu victims who died were primarily young healthy adults.
The reason they tended to die appear to be "cytokine storms" - where immune reactions trigger further immune reactions until the entire system is overloaded and crashes.

This is similar to H1N1 that everyone was so scared about a few years ago. The normal flu viruses that sweep across the world every year mostly kill the old or the sickly, and a few young children who don't yet have primed immune systems. The Spanish flu caused fit people to die quickly by prompting their immune systems to tear their bodies apart.

50% general mortality would mean near 100% mortality in the vulnerable populations mention above. Would any Ainu still exist? Would some Polynesian and Melanesian cultures be extinguished? Would every place in New Zealand that has a Maori alternative name to its English name not have that Maori name because so many Maori died.

WWII is out, and the world's population is probably only 5 billion. Nuclear weapons were invented in 1965 and no one has heard of global warming. My neighborhood is quite different. The oldest buildings date to about 1905, but most of the structures are from the 1920s. They would not have been built as there would be no one to live in them.
 
@Catmo- you'd be lucky to have a global population of 200 million in 1965 under that scenario. Remember, it zaps the adults and therefore, the folks likely/able to breed, making for a heck of a demographic bottleneck.
For example, it would look a lot like what we see in AIDS-devastated Africa where you've got lots of little kids and old farts, but working/breeding age population's down 80-90%. :eek::eek::eek::eek: That's with AIDS infecting 50% of the kids at birth.
This scenario's worse b/c After a quick wiki consult, what was really bad about Spanish flu was how it killed pregnant women 70% of the time OTL, and those that survived miscarried 75% of the time. So very few kids, lots of old farts, and thus maybe 5% of the breeding population you had before.
A 40% dieback a la European Black Plagues 1300-1500 meant the surplus population that allowed for social stasis in the High Middle Ages no longer exists, the evolution from land-to-cash-based economy, etc. that had social benefits in the long run. Plus, the Church had significantly less influence on the plague survivors allowing the Renaissance to go on.

An 80-90% dieback of breeding/working age population is a recipe for Mad Max-level societal meltdown especially in a pre-Information Age society. Modern society is like a pyramid balanced on a very small point.
Without .05% of the population amply feeding the rest of the population and allowing everyone else to be technically and commercially clever, social progress screeches to a halt and often bounces back to medieval village society at best.
Earth Abides by George Stewart is one literary treatment of what happens when population gets reduced so far that it doesn't have the critical mass of population allowing for preservation of modern skills.

FWIW, several nations managed to initiate quarantines of foreign ships and substantitally reduce deaths like Japan. Several major issues prevented a more effective quarantine response throughout the world in 1918-1920.


  • lack of WHO to coordinate public health information, quarantine sick and immunize vulnerable populations. Radio existed then as did the telegraph, but wartime censorship crippled efforts to coordinate an effective international response.
  • As mentioned in Wiki, people were dealing with endemic outbreaks of cholera, polio, typhoid, and malaria that killed folks by the millions in rich and poor countries alike. A war was going on and folks were dying in droves anyway.
  • As said before, WWI and its political sequelae profoundly buggered food production and distribution as well as bankrupting governments everywhere, leaving a huge vulnerable population in Europe and elsewhere without food, money or functional political systems to take the necessary public health/sanitation steps to stop/prevent its spread.
I thought I'd throw a little food for thought into the mix.
 
@TxCoatl1970

:eek:

Thats truly horrifying!! I dont know about Mad Max level anarchy, but...wow that would cause a severe societal breakdown. I've been thinking of a TL based along this premise and it seems far from just charting individual nations, I'd have to write it from the perspective of individuals.

Or make the Spanish flu just mount another serious mutation like the Black Death and have it spring up a few more times with its original mortality rate.
 
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