Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing

AndyC

Donor
The Treasury

“Ed,”, said Liam Byrne diffidently. “Don’t you think it might be wise to throw the Lib Dems some kind of bone or another?”

Balls looked up from the wide table. Papers were strewn around it, two laptops open and in use to one side, and three stacks of folders were just out of reach to his right. He was looking down a sheet with black marker scrawled over it, frowning.

“What?”

“I mean – is there something relatively economically minor but politically useful we can give them? You know – to get some good feeling going”, pressed Byrne.

“Why the hell would we want to do that?”, Ian Austin broke into the debate. He’d seemed a touch uncomfortable in his new role as Financial Secretary to the Treasury, but this seemed something he could weigh in on with no chance of looking foolish. Ed Balls had ripped him to pieces earlier in the day on a discussion about corporation tax – apparently Austin’s inability to explain “tax incidence” was a serious personal failing in Balls’ eyes.

Byrne pressed on. “Well, there’s going to be another election soon enough – we may need the Lib Dems. Or if we have some back benchers getting bolshie …

“Like sodding Clarke …” grumbled Balls.

“… we’ll need Huhne’s lot more than we do now”

Balls tilted his head considering. He glanced down at the sheet of paper as he opened his mouth to reply, but closed his mouth again and read it more carefully.

“What?” he murmured.

Byrne felt compelled to ask about it – he’d been slightly annoyed to be left in place during the reshuffle, but at least he was still in Cabinet. And having had some experience in the Treasury, at least he wasn’t completely sidelined by Balls when the economic debates broke out.

“What’s up, Ed?”

Balls pulled a sheet of rough paper towards himself and wrote a series on numbers on it, only half looking down. “Can’t do it”, he muttered to himself.

Byrne spoke up louder. “What’s the problem, Ed?”

“Gordon wants us to increase tax credits but taper them off faster”

Byrne tilted his head. “That’ll worsen the poverty trap, won’t it?”

“Yes, but that’s not the point. The point is that we really need to push some cash into capital spending and we don’t have any”, said Balls with a frown. “Seriously, Liam. What the hell were you and Alistair thinking of? The current plans are totally wrong for growth”

Byrne looked nonplussed. “There’s no money left! I’m sorry, Ed, but that’s the problem. Cutting current spending hurts people quicker, requires us to either reduce wages or sack people – and that means redundancy payments and unemployment – and capital spending is basically buying new things.”

Balls was looking unimpressed.

“When you’re skint, you slow down on buying new stuff and focus what you have on the day-to-day essentials,” Byrne pushed on. “We were borrowing shit-loads as it was”

Austin broke in, uncertainly. “Can’t we raise taxes somewhere? Not Income tax or VAT, of course. Employers National Insurance, or Corporation Tax”.

“Shut up, Ian”, said Balls absently. “Read that primer from the IFS website like I told you”.

He turned back to Byrne.

“Vicious circle, Liam. We’ve got to try to grow our way out, but we’re so far behind the 8-ball that we can’t raise borrowing. We have to maintain capital spending to restart the economy. HAVE to. It’ll be unpopular, but we can freeze wages for public servants, freeze some benefits, freeze recruitment and look to cut administrative costs somewhere. I need to free up at least ten billion to go into shovel-ready projects and I need to do it now. And I can’t”. Balls was looking extremely frustrated.

“Will Gordon accept any of that?”, asked Byrne.

“Short answer – no. Long answer – fuck no. And that’s the reason this Emergency Budget is taking so bloody long”

BBC News, 29 June 2010

The Chancellor, Ed Balls, today unveiled the Emergency budget. The standout measure was the announcement that all salaries of public funded employees will be limited to a maximum rise of £500 per year for at least four years. Housing Benefit will be frozen in real terms for a similar period of time, and the clawback rate of Tax Credits has been increased. The Identity cards Bill has been postponed indefinitely. Petrol, alcohol and tobacco duties are up from midnight tonight …

… Shadow Chancellor George Osborne stated “it’s fairly hard to get to grips with a so-called Emergency Budget that does nothing but tinker around the edges. It’s unavoidable to conclude that perhaps the Chancellor misunderstood the question?” …

… Liberal Democrat Spokesman Vince Osborne seemed to agree, noting that the apparent hesitance to engage with “any significant fiscal changes” was a pronounced failure of nerve on behalf of the Chancellor …

… UKIP leader Tim Congdon told the BBC, “The entire exercise was a waste of time from beginning to end. If he didn’t want to change anything, why bother in the first place?” …
 
Oh dear, when even Ed Balls is starting to lose hope you know that the country is heading into some hard times. I think the LibDems are also starting to flirt with aiming the knife at Labour's back seeing as Vince and George are now married and it seems that Labour aren't even giving them the pretence of being listened to while Gordon is alienating even close allies now.
 
Oh dear, this is going to be painful. Great writing though, loved Liam's familiar line about money. Always good to see a TL not skate around using real economic arguments and formulae, too. Not that I expect anything less from AndyStats.
 
Nicely done here. I think it's a neat touch to see UKIP's opinion now being taken seriously enough for their opinion to be cited by BBC news. One might expect Vince to be slightly more pro-Labour than he is here, although I suppose ITTL he's not had the experience of Coalition with Tories to awaken his inner left-winger. How supportive are the Lib Dems in public towards the Government they're popping up?
 

AndyC

Donor
Nicely done here. I think it's a neat touch to see UKIP's opinion now being taken seriously enough for their opinion to be cited by BBC news. One might expect Vince to be slightly more pro-Labour than he is here, although I suppose ITTL he's not had the experience of Coalition with Tories to awaken his inner left-winger. How supportive are the Lib Dems in public towards the Government they're popping up?

The Lib Dems are quite irritated with the Government - the promise of Coalition made by Gordon before the election turned out to be ... not quite what they thought it would. The promised "2 Cabinet posts" turned into Health Secretary for Huhne and Chief Secretary to the Treasury for Cable - with very little to no influence on the policy. They didn't like that - it was too obvious how isolated they'd be, so they came back with a counter-offer, which was rejected. the backup offer was accepted as per the below (heavily snipped) excerpts from the relevant scene:

14th May 2010
10 Downing Street. The Study.

...

Brown rubbed his eyes as he turned to Ed Milliband. “Ed – give me some good news, for God’s sake”

“Well, there’s not much changed. Huhne is willing to offer a one year supply-and-confidence deal, as long as you reopen the Budget and take on board some of Cable’s ideas. He wants you to commit to eradicating the structural deficit within six years …” Milliband trailed off as Brown’s expression turned thunderous.

“Cutting! Cutting, cutting, cutting! That’s all the bloody Liberals keep talking about today! What have they got? An upjumped former economist from Shell who thinks he knows how to run an economy, plus some reheated Tory dogshit dressed up in an orange cover!”, he snarled.

...

“Okay”, he continued in a more normal tone. “What are our other options? What will Huhne give us if we don’t jump to his economic whistle? Do you have to go back and ask again?”

Milliband shook his head. “No, I rather thought I might need to find out the contingency options”, he said with a half-smile.

Brown barked out a laugh. “That bloody predictable, am I?”

Milliband grinned. “Well – I’ve got to know you a bit. Anyway – if we reopen an Emergency Budget to cope with the changing European scenario … let me finish …”, he said urgently as Brown’s face darkened again.

“… but we control everything that goes into it and only make any cuts that we see as necessary and possible, but we show that we’re taking it all very seriously …”, he continued, as Brown sat back again, “… kick the ID cards into the long grass and follow up on our manifesto commitment for an AV referendum, they’ll give us a six month abstension deal on supply and confidence”

So the comment here is a thinly veiled shot across the bows for Brown, as Balls ignored their requests and suggestions when writing the Budget. At the moment, the Lib Dems are in effect trying to play both ends against the middle - retain their Opposition attraction whilst appearing responsible in allowing Government to continue - hoping that supply-and-confidence by abstention for a short period (whilst bewailing the Government actions but looking determinedly responsible) will not damage their protest-party status. Especially with another popular protest party available. How successful they will be remains to be seen ...
 

AndyC

Donor
Many thanks for all for the supportive words - it's always nice to hear, insecure as I am :)

Oh dear, this is going to be painful. Great writing though, loved Liam's familiar line about money. Always good to see a TL not skate around using real economic arguments and formulae, too. Not that I expect anything less from AndyStats.

But of course, my dear fellow. Without that, I'd lose my reputation :D.
(The trick is to avoid boring the pants off of everyone whilst trying to remain accurate - I've been highly aware of that potential peril and tried to dodge it)
 

AndyC

Donor
From “On the Cusp”

‘Against all the odds, Brown had managed to acquire an aura of stolid immovability: All but defeated and written off – indeed, with his political obituary practically typed up – he was, impossibly, still Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

And then, a few weeks later, the atmosphere had been lightened further within the inner echelons by the “unfortunate issues” that had surrounded David Laws, a major player in the Orange Book wing of the Liberal Democrats. At last, they thought, some of the expenses mud had slapped onto the Lib Dems. Laws’ profile had been raised briefly within the Westminster Village of journalists following the Election, when there was speculation that Clegg might challenge Huhne following the comparatively disappointing Liberal Democrat result, with Laws his chief lieutenant, but this had proved to be that rarest of beasts in Westminster: a genuinely unfounded rumour. The outcome – his raised profile triggering a closer look by the Daily Telegraph at their stash of acquired expenses records, had had the predictably unfortunate repercussions. This had been possibly a minor episode on the broad scheme of events, but it brought the occasional smile to the faces of those attending cabinet meetings.

The preliminary estimates from the Office of National Statistics on Q2 growth for 2010 cheered up the Government side further and put a castdown expression on the faces of the Conservatives especially, seeming to indicate that a “steady as she goes” Emergency Budget had been the right thing to do. The line “Told you so!” blared out from the Daily Mirror and the Guardian was eager to point out that it had obviously been no time for a novice. Un-noticed went Brown’s victory over the Chancellor’s desire to shift what spending could be afforded from current to capital expenditure.

This good news could not, of course, last. The often rambunctious Parliamentary Labour Party could be relied upon for splits and counter-briefings the longer it stayed in power, and now was no exception. The ex-Chancellor, Alistair Darling, unexpectedly put his foot in it when …’

Conservative HQ

“Well done, Andy!”

Andy Coulson looked up. George Osborne was standing by the open door, leaning against the door jamb.

“Sorry, George?”, Coulson asked, nonplussed.

“The Darling story. I just heard from … well, let’s say I have independent sources. Nicely played. How did you set him up?”

Coulson rubbed his eyes and glanced at his watch. Eight-thirty. The long summer days had tricked him again; he should have been heading home hours ago.

“I’m sorry, George, I don’t know what you’re talking about. What’s happened with Darling?”.

Osborne shrugged. “Well, I guess it was an unforced error, then. He’s been peeved ever since he had to ‘decide to spend more time with his family’ after Brown made his new Cabinet.”

Coulson leaned forward. “Don’t torment me, George – let me know. We’ve had precious little good news recently, apart from the Woollas thing. And Brown made him resign from being Immigration Minister as soon as the case was presented, so we couldn't play as much off of that as I'd've liked.”

“Well, it turns out that Alistair Darling was chatting to a couple of journos from the Times earlier this evening in the Strangers’ Bar, and they were buying. And he relaxed and said a couple of things that maybe he shouldn’t have done, and forgot to make sure they were off the record”, said Osborne.

“Well …?”

“Well, he said – apparently – and it’s getting printed up tomorrow – that the Q2 jump was ‘largely an artefact of inventory restocking’ and had nothing to do with the Emergency Budget, that there’s no easy route out, the hard times will come again, and … hang on”, Osborne looked down at his phone and continued, “that the ‘the fortunate reluctance of the markets’ to charge higher interest rates on UK debt following the May downgrade had been ‘partly due to the fact that the main purchaser is the Bank of England, and partly because things are so bad out there for the future that even we look downright attractive’ ”.

Coulson blinked. “Brown’s going to go absolutely mental! Why the fuck would Darling go off-piste like that?”

“Oh, yes, Brown will need a new Nokia or two about now”, said Osborne with a wide smile. “And as for Darling … he’s been quietly painted as the fiscal fall guy ever since Balls got into the Treasury. Every decision he made – even those that were forced on him by Brown – has been subject to a shake of the head and a despairing cry by Ed-the-perfect. Which he has promptly ensured has quietly leaked to the Labour back-benchers, just so they know that any problems are the fault of his predecessor, and any triumphs are his own. “

Osborne shrugged. “Alistair just got too pissed off, and it overcame his native caution. To be fair, he did assume that it was off the record. Or consciously, anyway. Subconsciously he might have been wanting to kick back” His smile, if anything, broadened. “Any economic in-fighting can only help us, and if it’s happening without any intervention from us, so much the better”

Coulson’s expression mirrored Osborne's, and then darkened briefly. “So what are we going to do about UKIP? Latest poll has them still on 13 percent, and Ashcroft’s polling has them doing better in the shires than anywhere else except the South West. So they bugger us up in the heartlands – and we need to shift resources to defend what should be safe seats”

Osborne’s smile faded. “Huh. Just when I was feeling happy for a few minutes - thanks for that, Andy! Short answer: I don’t know. Labour are hurting, the Lib Dems are screwed in the South West – one of their own heartlands, and UKIP aren’t actually making enough traction to get anywhere like into power. If we could just sidestep the UKIP threat, we’d be golden”

Coulson shrugged. “If wishes were horses …”

Osborne looked irritated. “Yeah, yeah, enough. I can’t work out a strategy to torpedo the buggers.". He looked thoughtful. "But I might know a man who can …”
 
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Ah, I think I know who George might be talking about.

So Darling has decided to kick back for a change, I can see Brown and Balls being aghast about why Darling doesn't want to be blamed for their mistakes when he tried to introduce some sanity in the budgets. :p

Things can only get brighter from here.
 
Very nice, interesting to see Brown getting a honeymoon of sorts. With the good growth figures and UKIP holding steady, would he not have considered going for an autumn election, or did lack of funds just make it unthinkable?
 

AndyC

Donor
Very nice, interesting to see Brown getting a honeymoon of sorts. With the good growth figures and UKIP holding steady, would he not have considered going for an autumn election, or did lack of funds just make it unthinkable?

That remains to be seen ...
 

AndyC

Donor
Will the whole TL be written in storybook format? Or will we see some press clippings, book extracts, etc?

At the moment, storybook format with occasional excerpts from books (like On The Cusp and Kavanagh and Cowley's The UK General Election of 201x) (x included to avoid spoilers).

I'll probably include some press clippings when (if? :)) we reach the debates for the next election, as per last time. I might include excerpts from blogs as well - am not decided yet.

The next four or five chapters are primarily storybook format, though - hopefully that won't detract from the TL (I've found I most enjoy writing in this style, which has the effect of getting the material written faster - I think that in the Fourth Lectern, I really hit my stride during the Andy Coulson first person narrative of election night, but that's personal preference).
 
At the moment, storybook format with occasional excerpts from books (like On The Cusp and Kavanagh and Cowley's The UK General Election of 201x) (x included to avoid spoilers).

I'll probably include some press clippings when (if? :)) we reach the debates for the next election, as per last time. I might include excerpts from blogs as well - am not decided yet.

The next four or five chapters are primarily storybook format, though - hopefully that won't detract from the TL (I've found I most enjoy writing in this style, which has the effect of getting the material written faster - I think that in the Fourth Lectern, I really hit my stride during the Andy Coulson first person narrative of election night, but that's personal preference).

Ahhh, fair enough!

Yeah, I don't mind storybook format particularly, and your writing style is excellent, as we've all said in the past. I just sometimes like to "zoom out" a little, to see the bigger picture of the country outside these one on one meetings with our characters!
 

AndyC

Donor
Ahhh, fair enough!

Yeah, I don't mind storybook format particularly, and your writing style is excellent, as we've all said in the past. I just sometimes like to "zoom out" a little, to see the bigger picture of the country outside these one on one meetings with our characters!

Ah - thanks :)
I'll look to put some more "zoomed out" bits in - there are some more around Chapter 8 onwards already, I think.

A head's up to all, however - this week's installment may be late, I'm afraid. I'm moving house tomorrow and may not have access to the Internet.
 
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