Why not PM it to one of we trusty readers to post on your behalf?
Can't go without this Wednesday treat!
Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing
- Thread starter AndyC
- Start date
Why not PM it to one of we trusty readers to post on your behalf?
Can't go without this Wednesday treat!
AndyC
Donor
Why not PM it to one of we trusty readers to post on your behalf?
Can't go without this Wednesday treat!
Hmm. Okay then, good idea. As per standard military doctrine, the proposer volunteers
Hmm. Okay then, good idea. As per standard military doctrine, the proposer volunteers
No problem. I will post the update on Andy's behalf on Wednesday, folks!
AndyC
Donor
A dining room, somewhere in Primrose Hill
He put down his glass of red wine and sighed. “My dear fellow, much though I enjoyed the meal, and the rapprochement, I do find myself wondering whether this will – again – end in tears. For both of us”.
His dining partner, younger and less polished, considered his words carefully. “Peter, what happened last time was a mistake for both of us, yes – and one that started with me. I couldn’t resist …”
“’Putting the boot in’, is, I believe the phrase you’re looking for”
“Yes. Another would be ‘my eyes lit up’. Gordon was very vulnerable, the Labour Party looked wracked with disunity, and I wanted to have it released into the Westminster Village that one of the other architects of New Labour did not rate Brown for PM one little bit”
Mandelson shook his head. “You caused me no little embarrassment, you know, George. I had no choice but to strike back”
“I know”. Osborne looked abashed. “And your counterstroke hurt me more than I hurt you”.
“Palpably, my dear”. Despite himself, Mandelson looked a trifle smug. “The quail’s eggs were wonderful, by the way”.
“Peter – I must confess that my intentions were not simply to share a meal, however pleasant the meal or the company might be”
Mandelson shrugged. “Of course not. But, I fear, that’s all that is likely to result. So at least we should enjoy the meal”
“Peter. I know that it would be hard to confide in one another once more …” Osborne began.
“Hard? Impossible, I should say. I like to think I am no fool”
Osborne shook his head. “No, of course not. But you do have one fatal weakness”
Mandelson looked amused. “This, George, I have to hear. Not only have you identified my ‘fatal weakness’, but you are willing to let me know what it is?”. He paused. “So I should attempt to isolate it myself. Well, there’s the obvious one, but I fail to see how it would help you. Eschewing anything personal, which would be beneath you …”
“Of course”, murmured Osborne.
“… we have my well known and some might say dangerous fascination with what you might term ‘conspiracies and manipulation’. But I fail to see precisely how that would help you. I obviously would therefore not appreciate being made the butt of such manipulation – as you did with the yacht conversation – so I would be, if anything, less likely to be willing to re-engage in the same area. Have I missed something?”. Mandelson raised an eyebrow.
Idly, Osborne wondered how he could do that – a single eyebrow at a time. He would be ashamed to admit it, but he’d actually tried to replicate the expression and failed totally every time. Maybe Mandelson only did it to wind him up.
Osborne broke the brief silence. “Actually, you have, Peter”
Mandelson raised the other eyebrow to meet the first, coincidentally relaxing Osborne somewhat. “Pray tell”.
“You actually love your reputation as the schemer, the manipulator, the politicker divorced from principle, but – importantly – it isn’t true”, said Osborne.
“It isn’t? I am NOT a scheming manipulator, worthy of being regarded as a veritable Prince of Darkness?”. Mandelson reached for the wine bottle to refresh his glass. “You wound me, George”.
“Oh, you are a manipulative, scheming son of a … Labour politician …, certainly”, replied Osborne with a disarming smile. “But you are NOT divorced from principle. In fact, virtually everything you’ve ever done in the field of politics has been for what you’ve kept in mind as your belief of the Greater Good”
“I think you’ve gone from wounding me to flattering me. Steady on!”, said Mandelson, smiling.
“Whatever works. Down to brass tacks: I … well, we in the Conservative Party … have a little UKIP problem”, said Osborne, firmly.
“Indeed. YOU have a problem with them. I … well, we in the Labour Party … do not. I’m sorry, George, but I fail to see common ground here”
Osborne shrugged. “You will. You’ve never been one to focus too much on the short term, unlike your Leader”
Mandelson looked uncomfortable. “I think you are too harsh on dear Gordon, but what exactly do you mean? In the short term, Tim Congdon and his troops will be splitting your vote far more than ours. In the longer term, he might even fatally damage your Party. Once more, I fail to see common ground. I sympathise, but not enough to bury the hatchet, I’m afraid”
“Think it through, Peter. We will not give up easily – we won’t ‘go gently into the night’”
“You’ll ‘rage against the dying of the light’? You will threaten me with a Samson in the temple scenario?”, asked Mandelson.
“Not by choice. But if UKIP gain ground – or even hold ground against us …”
“And the polls indicate they are stubbornly refusing to die away in the evidence of the last election”, interjected Mandelson.
“Yeah – like the SDP didn’t die. And now their descendants are so, so close to holding the balance of power … and some might argue that their very philosophy won. Labour had to adopt a very SDP-friendly platform to win power”, said Osborne.
“Well, yes, the SDP make a good precedent for not ignoring the threat of UKIP to you. But your point was … oh.”
Osborne was impressed, despite himself. Nothing had yet eroded Mandelson’s political antennae.
“Let me think for a moment”, said Mandelson, leaning back and staring at the ceiling.
There was a prolonged, slightly awkward silence, finally broken by Mandelson. “I’m still unconvinced. With the SDP, we in Labour HAD to move centre-wards. UKIP are to your outside, are they not?”
“Not in everything. In fact, they’re all over the place”, said Osborne.
“The perfect protest Party”, mused Mandelson. “Our dear friends in the Liberal Democrats could only aspire to such perfect opportunism. Still, UKIP are largely known for being firmly on the right”
“Do you really still believe in that simplistic spectrum?” asked Osborne. “A defined left, centre and right? The old argument of Keith Joseph – to find the ‘common ground’ is all but orthogonal to that line. And UKIP have the common touch. Far more than us. More than the Lib Dems – and, I’m afraid, Peter – more than you, despite the remnant tribal loyalties”
“Still, the threat is more to you”, responded Mandelson.
“So, when we are pressed, and our backs are to the wall, in desperation, we will inevitably take aim at the UKIP fox. It may not help, but we will never go down whilst bullets are left in the gun”, said Osborne.
“The UKIP fox? Ah – Europe”. Mandelson blinked. “You’d leave the EU!?”. He sat bolt upright. “George, you have to know that such would be a colossal mistake. You’d be isolated, alone, marginalised!”
“We’d not unilaterally leave – but we may have to offer a referendum on it, and do it firmly. With a well defined timetable within a fairly short time of taking power. And I am not sanguine about winning it. We may well do so, but …”
“… the vicissitudes of the electorate. Indeed”, said Mandelson.
“So. Ideally, you’d like to see us weakened, but with UKIP doomed. I’m getting desperate – Labour are in trouble, certainly, but so are we. We simply cannot dislodge this threat. I’ve wracked my brains, but all strategies are flawed. Ignore them? Doesn’t work. Attack them? Legitimises them. Mock them? Tried that – it just annoys soft supporters and actually builds their support. Steal their clothes? What clothes do they have that everyone recognises, aside from their EU policy – which isn’t really THAT large a motivator for even their soft supporters. The activists, sure, but we’re not getting them back even with a referendum”
Osborne leaned forward. “But the EU referendum is almost the only symbolic thing we CAN do to placate the UKIP forces. David is starting to panic”
“Well, we can’t have dear David panicking, can we”, said Mandelson, sarcastically. He raised a hand to forestall Osborne. “No, no, my friend, I am seized of the need. You have quite convinced me”
There was a long silence. Mandelson was slowly sipping his wine, his eyes distant.
“Do you have anything at all?” asked Osborne, finally.
“George, George, patience. It can be possible that some problems require more than fifty seconds of pondering, you know. You’ve tried the obvious, as you’ve listed … hmm. Give me a couple of days and let me get back to you. Even a brief period of Tory rule would be preferable to a rampant UKIP, indeed”.
He levelled his gaze at Osborne. “But do not mistake me – I will be endeavouring to minimise the advantage to you and disadvantage to us”.
Osborne relaxed back into his chair. “Peter, I never thought it would be any different”.
He put down his glass of red wine and sighed. “My dear fellow, much though I enjoyed the meal, and the rapprochement, I do find myself wondering whether this will – again – end in tears. For both of us”.
His dining partner, younger and less polished, considered his words carefully. “Peter, what happened last time was a mistake for both of us, yes – and one that started with me. I couldn’t resist …”
“’Putting the boot in’, is, I believe the phrase you’re looking for”
“Yes. Another would be ‘my eyes lit up’. Gordon was very vulnerable, the Labour Party looked wracked with disunity, and I wanted to have it released into the Westminster Village that one of the other architects of New Labour did not rate Brown for PM one little bit”
Mandelson shook his head. “You caused me no little embarrassment, you know, George. I had no choice but to strike back”
“I know”. Osborne looked abashed. “And your counterstroke hurt me more than I hurt you”.
“Palpably, my dear”. Despite himself, Mandelson looked a trifle smug. “The quail’s eggs were wonderful, by the way”.
“Peter – I must confess that my intentions were not simply to share a meal, however pleasant the meal or the company might be”
Mandelson shrugged. “Of course not. But, I fear, that’s all that is likely to result. So at least we should enjoy the meal”
“Peter. I know that it would be hard to confide in one another once more …” Osborne began.
“Hard? Impossible, I should say. I like to think I am no fool”
Osborne shook his head. “No, of course not. But you do have one fatal weakness”
Mandelson looked amused. “This, George, I have to hear. Not only have you identified my ‘fatal weakness’, but you are willing to let me know what it is?”. He paused. “So I should attempt to isolate it myself. Well, there’s the obvious one, but I fail to see how it would help you. Eschewing anything personal, which would be beneath you …”
“Of course”, murmured Osborne.
“… we have my well known and some might say dangerous fascination with what you might term ‘conspiracies and manipulation’. But I fail to see precisely how that would help you. I obviously would therefore not appreciate being made the butt of such manipulation – as you did with the yacht conversation – so I would be, if anything, less likely to be willing to re-engage in the same area. Have I missed something?”. Mandelson raised an eyebrow.
Idly, Osborne wondered how he could do that – a single eyebrow at a time. He would be ashamed to admit it, but he’d actually tried to replicate the expression and failed totally every time. Maybe Mandelson only did it to wind him up.
Osborne broke the brief silence. “Actually, you have, Peter”
Mandelson raised the other eyebrow to meet the first, coincidentally relaxing Osborne somewhat. “Pray tell”.
“You actually love your reputation as the schemer, the manipulator, the politicker divorced from principle, but – importantly – it isn’t true”, said Osborne.
“It isn’t? I am NOT a scheming manipulator, worthy of being regarded as a veritable Prince of Darkness?”. Mandelson reached for the wine bottle to refresh his glass. “You wound me, George”.
“Oh, you are a manipulative, scheming son of a … Labour politician …, certainly”, replied Osborne with a disarming smile. “But you are NOT divorced from principle. In fact, virtually everything you’ve ever done in the field of politics has been for what you’ve kept in mind as your belief of the Greater Good”
“I think you’ve gone from wounding me to flattering me. Steady on!”, said Mandelson, smiling.
“Whatever works. Down to brass tacks: I … well, we in the Conservative Party … have a little UKIP problem”, said Osborne, firmly.
“Indeed. YOU have a problem with them. I … well, we in the Labour Party … do not. I’m sorry, George, but I fail to see common ground here”
Osborne shrugged. “You will. You’ve never been one to focus too much on the short term, unlike your Leader”
Mandelson looked uncomfortable. “I think you are too harsh on dear Gordon, but what exactly do you mean? In the short term, Tim Congdon and his troops will be splitting your vote far more than ours. In the longer term, he might even fatally damage your Party. Once more, I fail to see common ground. I sympathise, but not enough to bury the hatchet, I’m afraid”
“Think it through, Peter. We will not give up easily – we won’t ‘go gently into the night’”
“You’ll ‘rage against the dying of the light’? You will threaten me with a Samson in the temple scenario?”, asked Mandelson.
“Not by choice. But if UKIP gain ground – or even hold ground against us …”
“And the polls indicate they are stubbornly refusing to die away in the evidence of the last election”, interjected Mandelson.
“Yeah – like the SDP didn’t die. And now their descendants are so, so close to holding the balance of power … and some might argue that their very philosophy won. Labour had to adopt a very SDP-friendly platform to win power”, said Osborne.
“Well, yes, the SDP make a good precedent for not ignoring the threat of UKIP to you. But your point was … oh.”
Osborne was impressed, despite himself. Nothing had yet eroded Mandelson’s political antennae.
“Let me think for a moment”, said Mandelson, leaning back and staring at the ceiling.
There was a prolonged, slightly awkward silence, finally broken by Mandelson. “I’m still unconvinced. With the SDP, we in Labour HAD to move centre-wards. UKIP are to your outside, are they not?”
“Not in everything. In fact, they’re all over the place”, said Osborne.
“The perfect protest Party”, mused Mandelson. “Our dear friends in the Liberal Democrats could only aspire to such perfect opportunism. Still, UKIP are largely known for being firmly on the right”
“Do you really still believe in that simplistic spectrum?” asked Osborne. “A defined left, centre and right? The old argument of Keith Joseph – to find the ‘common ground’ is all but orthogonal to that line. And UKIP have the common touch. Far more than us. More than the Lib Dems – and, I’m afraid, Peter – more than you, despite the remnant tribal loyalties”
“Still, the threat is more to you”, responded Mandelson.
“So, when we are pressed, and our backs are to the wall, in desperation, we will inevitably take aim at the UKIP fox. It may not help, but we will never go down whilst bullets are left in the gun”, said Osborne.
“The UKIP fox? Ah – Europe”. Mandelson blinked. “You’d leave the EU!?”. He sat bolt upright. “George, you have to know that such would be a colossal mistake. You’d be isolated, alone, marginalised!”
“We’d not unilaterally leave – but we may have to offer a referendum on it, and do it firmly. With a well defined timetable within a fairly short time of taking power. And I am not sanguine about winning it. We may well do so, but …”
“… the vicissitudes of the electorate. Indeed”, said Mandelson.
“So. Ideally, you’d like to see us weakened, but with UKIP doomed. I’m getting desperate – Labour are in trouble, certainly, but so are we. We simply cannot dislodge this threat. I’ve wracked my brains, but all strategies are flawed. Ignore them? Doesn’t work. Attack them? Legitimises them. Mock them? Tried that – it just annoys soft supporters and actually builds their support. Steal their clothes? What clothes do they have that everyone recognises, aside from their EU policy – which isn’t really THAT large a motivator for even their soft supporters. The activists, sure, but we’re not getting them back even with a referendum”
Osborne leaned forward. “But the EU referendum is almost the only symbolic thing we CAN do to placate the UKIP forces. David is starting to panic”
“Well, we can’t have dear David panicking, can we”, said Mandelson, sarcastically. He raised a hand to forestall Osborne. “No, no, my friend, I am seized of the need. You have quite convinced me”
There was a long silence. Mandelson was slowly sipping his wine, his eyes distant.
“Do you have anything at all?” asked Osborne, finally.
“George, George, patience. It can be possible that some problems require more than fifty seconds of pondering, you know. You’ve tried the obvious, as you’ve listed … hmm. Give me a couple of days and let me get back to you. Even a brief period of Tory rule would be preferable to a rampant UKIP, indeed”.
He levelled his gaze at Osborne. “But do not mistake me – I will be endeavouring to minimise the advantage to you and disadvantage to us”.
Osborne relaxed back into his chair. “Peter, I never thought it would be any different”.
AndyC
Donor
The Dark Lord is going to be supplying advice to Osborne (these sorts of thing do happen; politics is an incestuous profession and opponents often have common cause (think about the famous meeting on Deripasks'a yacht between Osborne and Mandelson; it is certain that the conversation included politics and loaded advice in both directions; albeit Mandy wasn't in Government at the time. This is a step further, but not implausible, given the Prince of Darkness's fondness for conspiracy).
Osborne is trying to show a common cause with Mandelson to pull advice that he desperately needs. One might think that Mandelson would resent being played like this (although recognising Osborne's need to do so and respecting his chutzpah in trying the play) and would investigate the opportunity to make the advice as advantageous to his own side as possible whilst still being so useful as to make Osborne implement it anyway... )
As an aside, one area I was concerned about when I wrote this bit four weeks ago was whether it would be credible for there to be a threat of Cameron actually offering an in-out referendum. The events of today were a co-incidence for which I thank the Cosmic Screenwriter.
Oh come on Andy, you sell yourself short. You know quite well that reality mirrors your fiction and not the other way around.
AndyC
Donor
“Okay, Stuart”, Congdon leaned back in his armchair. “What’s up?”
Stuart Wheeler closed his laptop with a snap. “Not us, at the moment, and that’s the problem”
“Stuart, we can hardly be leading the polls at all times. Labour’s down, the Lib Dems are flatlining, the Tories are up, sure, but did you see this Ashcroft poll? We’re making headway in clumps, and that’s ideal. Isn’t it?”
Wheeler motioned towards a young man who was holding a folder. He handed it to Wheeler without a word. Wheeler reached in, and took out a piece of paper, putting it in front of Congdon, silently.
“Interesting”, said Congdon, as he scanned it. “So Ashcroft isn’t the only person playing the polling game”
“Yes. And mine is far more recent. And the tactic of naming party leaders, asking about the most important issues facing the country, and putting forwards fake polling cards with the names of the candidates on them may be a lot more bloody expensive, but I think it produces a more accurate outcome”, said Wheeler.
“This is better for Labour than I’d thought. We’re down, Lib Dems down, Tories about level”. He looked up, eyes piercing. “Does Brown have any idea about this?”
“I don’t think so”, replied Wheeler. “But he’s likely to get some idea pretty soon. They’ve got a big presentation from Deborah Mattinson next week. And we hear that the August unemployment figures are going to be down again. You know what I think?”
“Cut and run? Can they afford it?”
“They can’t afford not to”.
Congdon pushed the paper to one side, stood up and paced along the wall.
“Well, we’re down to two MPs if Bob does defect to become an Independent again. The only thing holding him to the whip at all is the fact that standing as a UKIP candidate will be the best way to retain his seat. The threat of a cut and run election will probably focus his mind. Farage is being a pain again – I had to promise to let him take the first by-election, so he’ll be standing in Oldham East and Saddleworth – assuming they get their act together and chuck out Woollas and call for a rerun. He’ll be insufferable if he gets into Parliament”, He paused and looked meaningfully at Wheeler.
Wheeler nodded. “I’ll have words. A promise of potential ministerial office in a hung parliament if we stay united, versus potential leadership of a smaller and less influential party if we squabble – it’ll help”
A town house in Primrose Hill
The iPhone buzzed insistently, lying on the oak coffee table.
“George”, called Steve Hilton. “I think your phone is going”
“Huh? Oh, sorry”. Osborne stood up from the laptop from which he was animatedly presenting figures to the three other men in Cameron’s drawing room. He stepped over and picked it up, sliding the green icon and holding it to his ear. “Hi, Peter”
He stood there, head tilted. “Uh hunh”
“ Yep”
“Oh, yes - still very worried”
Cameron, Coulson and Hilton waited impatiently. The half-sided conversation was not exactly illuminating, consisting of grunts, short sentence fragments such as “yeah, but what about ‘the noise before defeat?’” , and “… no … yes, but …. We can’t exactly … yeah, I suppose we can”.
Eventually, he put the phone into his pocket and turned to the other three, looking thoughtful.
“Well, I’ve managed to get some useful advice on our UKIP problem, and the more I think about it, the better it seems”
“Hang on”, said Hilton. “Who was that? Who’s Peter?”
“Peter! You’re getting campaigning advice from Mandelson!?”, asked Coulson in disbelief.
There was a moment’s stunned silence, broken by Cameron. “Well, I suppose he’s definitely an expert”, he said with a smile. “But how could you trust him? And why would he help us?”
“Oh, I painted the horror story of you panicking and offering an EU referendum. If there’s one thing Mandy loves, it’s the EU. Anyway, he has a suggestion or two for us”
“Well, go on then!” said Coulson.
“No strategy will work”
There was a prolonged silence. It was finally broken by Steve Hilton. “Um. That may not be the most useful advice I’ve ever received, to be brutally honest …”
“No strategy will work”, repeated Osborne, smiling. “So: don’t use a strategy. Use tactics instead”
“What do you mean?”, Cameron’s brow furrowed.
“Go straight to the ground campaign. Every single UKIP candidate is likely to have some weakness. Something barking that they’ve said in the past. Take a leaf out of the Lib Dems – stir endlessly, blow up personal idiosyncrasies, treat every constituency as if it’s unique”
“That’ll take a lot of resources”, said Hilton. “And can we completely ignore them in the air war?”
“No – we treat the air war as regional campaigns. UKIP in the shires, UKIP in the South West, UKIP in East Anglia, UKIP in London, UKIP in the Black Country … they all have different themes, and we tailor our regional campaigns to these. We then tailor the overall theme to whichever our number-crunchers tell us will get the best reward-to-loss ratio over all of those vulnerabilities. Be dismissive of them until the election campaign proper will be started, then make the call based on these and our overall polling numbers at the time”.
“Huh”, said Cameron. “That’s actually bloody sound advice. It’ll cost, but it’ll pay dividends”
Hilton leaned forward. “Mandelson never gives anything away for free. What’s he want in return for this?”
Osborne looked a little uncomfortable. “Well, it’s not too bad – I thought we’d probably do this anyway, but I’ve suggested …”
Stuart Wheeler closed his laptop with a snap. “Not us, at the moment, and that’s the problem”
“Stuart, we can hardly be leading the polls at all times. Labour’s down, the Lib Dems are flatlining, the Tories are up, sure, but did you see this Ashcroft poll? We’re making headway in clumps, and that’s ideal. Isn’t it?”
Wheeler motioned towards a young man who was holding a folder. He handed it to Wheeler without a word. Wheeler reached in, and took out a piece of paper, putting it in front of Congdon, silently.
“Interesting”, said Congdon, as he scanned it. “So Ashcroft isn’t the only person playing the polling game”
“Yes. And mine is far more recent. And the tactic of naming party leaders, asking about the most important issues facing the country, and putting forwards fake polling cards with the names of the candidates on them may be a lot more bloody expensive, but I think it produces a more accurate outcome”, said Wheeler.
“This is better for Labour than I’d thought. We’re down, Lib Dems down, Tories about level”. He looked up, eyes piercing. “Does Brown have any idea about this?”
“I don’t think so”, replied Wheeler. “But he’s likely to get some idea pretty soon. They’ve got a big presentation from Deborah Mattinson next week. And we hear that the August unemployment figures are going to be down again. You know what I think?”
“Cut and run? Can they afford it?”
“They can’t afford not to”.
Congdon pushed the paper to one side, stood up and paced along the wall.
“Well, we’re down to two MPs if Bob does defect to become an Independent again. The only thing holding him to the whip at all is the fact that standing as a UKIP candidate will be the best way to retain his seat. The threat of a cut and run election will probably focus his mind. Farage is being a pain again – I had to promise to let him take the first by-election, so he’ll be standing in Oldham East and Saddleworth – assuming they get their act together and chuck out Woollas and call for a rerun. He’ll be insufferable if he gets into Parliament”, He paused and looked meaningfully at Wheeler.
Wheeler nodded. “I’ll have words. A promise of potential ministerial office in a hung parliament if we stay united, versus potential leadership of a smaller and less influential party if we squabble – it’ll help”
A town house in Primrose Hill
The iPhone buzzed insistently, lying on the oak coffee table.
“George”, called Steve Hilton. “I think your phone is going”
“Huh? Oh, sorry”. Osborne stood up from the laptop from which he was animatedly presenting figures to the three other men in Cameron’s drawing room. He stepped over and picked it up, sliding the green icon and holding it to his ear. “Hi, Peter”
He stood there, head tilted. “Uh hunh”
“ Yep”
“Oh, yes - still very worried”
Cameron, Coulson and Hilton waited impatiently. The half-sided conversation was not exactly illuminating, consisting of grunts, short sentence fragments such as “yeah, but what about ‘the noise before defeat?’” , and “… no … yes, but …. We can’t exactly … yeah, I suppose we can”.
Eventually, he put the phone into his pocket and turned to the other three, looking thoughtful.
“Well, I’ve managed to get some useful advice on our UKIP problem, and the more I think about it, the better it seems”
“Hang on”, said Hilton. “Who was that? Who’s Peter?”
“Peter! You’re getting campaigning advice from Mandelson!?”, asked Coulson in disbelief.
There was a moment’s stunned silence, broken by Cameron. “Well, I suppose he’s definitely an expert”, he said with a smile. “But how could you trust him? And why would he help us?”
“Oh, I painted the horror story of you panicking and offering an EU referendum. If there’s one thing Mandy loves, it’s the EU. Anyway, he has a suggestion or two for us”
“Well, go on then!” said Coulson.
“No strategy will work”
There was a prolonged silence. It was finally broken by Steve Hilton. “Um. That may not be the most useful advice I’ve ever received, to be brutally honest …”
“No strategy will work”, repeated Osborne, smiling. “So: don’t use a strategy. Use tactics instead”
“What do you mean?”, Cameron’s brow furrowed.
“Go straight to the ground campaign. Every single UKIP candidate is likely to have some weakness. Something barking that they’ve said in the past. Take a leaf out of the Lib Dems – stir endlessly, blow up personal idiosyncrasies, treat every constituency as if it’s unique”
“That’ll take a lot of resources”, said Hilton. “And can we completely ignore them in the air war?”
“No – we treat the air war as regional campaigns. UKIP in the shires, UKIP in the South West, UKIP in East Anglia, UKIP in London, UKIP in the Black Country … they all have different themes, and we tailor our regional campaigns to these. We then tailor the overall theme to whichever our number-crunchers tell us will get the best reward-to-loss ratio over all of those vulnerabilities. Be dismissive of them until the election campaign proper will be started, then make the call based on these and our overall polling numbers at the time”.
“Huh”, said Cameron. “That’s actually bloody sound advice. It’ll cost, but it’ll pay dividends”
Hilton leaned forward. “Mandelson never gives anything away for free. What’s he want in return for this?”
Osborne looked a little uncomfortable. “Well, it’s not too bad – I thought we’d probably do this anyway, but I’ve suggested …”
What exactly is Mandelson going to want that the Tories can give him? He can demand concessions on Europe but I have the feeling that Cameron will then just back out when the heat increases. UKIP have also hit a ceiling while Nigel isn't liking the idea of someone else becoming the face of Euroscepticism, I can see him trying to widen his public profile backfiring immensely during this campaign.
Hmmm, interesting indeed. Mandelson maybe seeking a guarantee of no EU referendum?
Good to catch up with this. Your characterisations are great. Peter in particular was (while not without a few panto moments which I'm sure he's partial to in reality) fun to read.
I too am wondering how the second-grade car salesman with the charisma of a drunk uncle (see what I did there?), Nigel, is doing. My memory is hazy on what went down in Fourth Lectern - he didn't beat Bercow, did he?
I too am wondering how the second-grade car salesman with the charisma of a drunk uncle (see what I did there?), Nigel, is doing. My memory is hazy on what went down in Fourth Lectern - he didn't beat Bercow, did he?
AndyC
Donor
Thanks - I sometimes have too much fun whilst writing Mandelson ...
No - Bercow won by 22,000 to 16,000. Considerably closer than in OTL, but still not close enough to really scare Baggins.
Maybe if he'd tried the revolutionary tactic of campaigning on the ground, he might have done better
This. No spoilers, but ... this.
AndyC
Donor
It was a stuffy evening at Labour Party Headquarters, but the air conditioning in the briefing room kept the weather outside. A slight, red-headed woman was standing beside a screen, talking animatedly. At last, she fell silent. “Any questions”, asked Deborah Mattinson, stepping away from the screen.
David Milliband spoke first. “Deborah, thanks for that, but …”
“David”. Mandelson interrupted. “I think we should let Gordon have a word first. He is, after all, our Leader”.
“Thank you, Peter,” said Brown. Not even pausing for a glare at Milliband – that’s actually a surprise – he’s completely focussed on this. Numbers, I suppose. Right in his comfort zone, mused Mandelson – Brown pressed on. Standing up, the bulky Scot turned to face the rest of the room.
“Whatever we decide, we decide tonight - and we stick to it”. He swept the room with a glare. "And we release it – united – into any and all tame journalists. I’m a bit … twitchy … about setting hares running to row back later”
Some embarrassed chuckles greeted this. Brown gave a half smile. “On the face of it, these numbers are encouraging. Very encouraging. My instincts are saying ‘go for it’. Does anyone have a good reason why not?”
“Might be our best shot”, agreed Ed Milliband. His brother, his expression bland, agreed. “I can’t see a better opportunity coming our way for years”.
The murmurs of agreement swelled, until Mandelson spoke up. “Why?”
Faces turned to look at him, expressions quizzical. “What?” asked Brown, looking annoyed.
“Why?”, repeated Mandelson. “It’s been barely three months since the last election. Without unity of Opposition, we could have nearly five years ahead of us. Difficult years, I’ll grant you, but more difficult for the impotent Cameron, Huhne and Congdon than for us.”
He focussed on Mattinson. “Deborah, dear. Please tell us the best and worst cases. Practical cases, that is – anything requiring extremes of fortune, please omit”.
Mattinson glanced at Brown, who nodded, with his irritated expression giving way to a thoughtful one.
“Well, the variables are huge, especially due to the UKIP surge. To be honest, I’d prefer it if we could model every constituency individually, especially because the ‘safe-seat’ category is now under threat. In addition, small shifts can have huge outcomes when we start from so well-balanced a position”
“Yes, my dear, we take it for read that the predictability has become very fraught”, interjected Mandelson. “Please skip over the mechanics and give us ballpark figures”
Mattinson drew herself up decisively. “Right, we have a number of scenarios. Scenario One: Labour sustain their position; the Conservatives lose votes most of all to UKIP; the Lib Dems fail to make ground. Labour majority of 20”
David Milliband broke in. “That sounds good. Probability?”
“I’ll cover probabilities at the end. Scenario Two: We drift back down, Conservatives hold off the worst of the UKIP challenge, the Lib Dems make ground preferentially against us, especially in student constituencies. Conservative minority, possibly even a thin majority”
“A depressing outcome”, said Mandelson. “I take it there are other scenarios?”
“Oh yes. ‘UKIP Dream’ has us drifting down, but the Tories failing to hold them off; the ‘Lib Dem Dream’ has them in kingmaker position – which happens more often than I think we’d like when we run projections; it can happen even with them losing seats – there’s about a dozen possible outcomes. Those two, however, are very marginally the most likely. Call it 15% for Scenario One and 10% for Scenario Two”
“And what assumptions on public interest changes did you make,my dear?”, asked Mandelson.
“Oh, we just used a randomised stochastic one. Basically, the probability of your position improving was about equal to no change and to your position falling”, replied Mattinson.
“In which case, I fear that I must strongly advise caution”, said Mandelson. “In my opinion, the public – fickle beast that it is – has a stronger chance of swinging behind Cameron”.
He turned towards Brown. “Consider, Gordon: if we call an election now for the start of October, what will be the first news item of the campaign? Samantha Cameron is due to give birth any time over the next month. This shouldn’t be a political issue – but it will further serve to underline human qualities of the Leader of the Opposition”
He took a sip of water from the glass in front of him. “One strength we have is that the Tories remain distrusted and toxic. A cute baby automatically triggers certain areas of the human brain – the family cannot be so bad, can they? If we lose too many Mumsnet-style voters, we get disproportionate losses.”
“We also have the question of who will stand in Oldham East and Saddleworth? You acted decisively and promptly in suspending Phil Woollas from the front bench and proclaiming your distaste for the alleged actions – but promising to suspend final judgement until a proper process had been complete. This won’t happen before winter comes. So who stands there?”.
Mandelson shrugged. “A single constituency may seem a petty focus, but you can guarantee that the Tories and especially the Lib Dems will blow this up as much as they can to paint us all as racists and hypocrites”
“And we have the unknown and unknowable. We will have revisions to GDP growth for the last quarter. That was a very welcome number – however, an increase or no change would not change anything. Good news replacing good news is no news. If it were to decrease on revision by even a fraction, the news changes. That’s what – a fifty-fifty chance?”
“Add to that the fact that we’re broke, the Lib Dems have no money, and UKIP have only really Stuart Wheeler to draw upon, and he can’t fund too much more than a few directed campaigns. The Tories are the only ones with money to spend on a campaign. I have tried to take steps to ensure that their focus on spending is not against us, however, but this won’t remove their entire advantage”, continued Mandelson.
“But not going for it last time was what screwed us!”, protested Douglas Alexander.
“No, dear boy, not squashing the rumours was what screwed you last time. Consider – what would we put in the manifesto? Reheat the last one that got effectively rejected? What policies do we want to see? Come on, let’s hear them”
There was a prolonged, uncomfortable silence.
“Um – smaller class sizes?”, ventured Yvette Cooper.
“We could ban plastic carrier bags in supermarkets …”, Ed Milliband trailed off, discouraged.
The silence resumed.
“Okay, we get your point”, growled Brown.
“Indeed. We have little left to say apart from ‘let us go on as before’. Which the electorate don’t want – it’s simply that they fear the Tories right now. However, we also have to look at the downside of not going – we’ll be locked into a minority Government for the next four and a half years. We’ll lose seats to by-election defeats and backbenchers may get more and more disruptive. Piloting legislation through will be difficult – but then again, we’ve established that there’s not much we really want to put through, other than to keep the Tories out through the recovery. We may need to go cap in hand to the Yellow Peril before the end of the Parliament”, said Mandelson.
Unhappy glances were traded across the table.
“Gentlemen – we are not in a happy position whichever way we go, but then again – no-one else is, either, and we have the luxury of being able to actually do things and control the agenda. To some extent. To summarise: If we go for it, we have nothing to say to the electorate other than ‘hey, we’ve had some nice polls recently and we’d like to take advantage of them'. With nothing unanticipated blowing up, we start the campaign with the focus on the happy family of David Cameron, ourselves vulnerable over toxic charges, and a fifty-fifty call on bad news or no news on our strongest line. All this is in order to buy an outside chance at a majority – less than one in six at the very best assumptions; a lot lower than that when these forecastable events are factored in. All other scenarios have us no better than now at best, a lot worse than now at worst. And with the status quo - unless the Tories, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the Irish all line up against us, we can govern until 2015, albeit with restricted room to manouevre. This outside chance at a majority buys us six more months if it pays off – admittedly more comfortably. If it doesn’t, we lose our control of events and hand over credit for the recovery to Cameron and Osborne”
Mandelson shook his head sadly. “I’m sorry, Gordon – I don’t think it’s worth the gamble. Oh, and further to that – I have information that the Tories are running scared of UKIP”
“Ha! Not a surprise, but welcome”, growled Brown.
“Indeed. Four and a half more years gives them more time to focus excessively on their own little problem to the detriment of their focus on us. The longer they are distracted, the better”
Brown tilted his head, considering. “Okay – you’re very persuasive. Can anyone shoot down these points?”
Mandelson shrugged. “It’s possible that there are no right answers – with the status quo, events could derail us – especially if the Parliamentary Party becomes too fractious. Rebellions could put us down and out – but to be fair, that could be the case even with us in a fractionally better state”.
“You leave the Party to me”, growled Brown. “Any more for any more?”. His eyes swept the room. One by one, they shrugged or shook their heads. “Ed? David? Douglas? Alan? Andy? Jack? Harriet? Jim? Yvette? Shaun? Ed? Hilary? Anyone?”
“Right. Decided. Make no mistake, everyone – we’re now in it for the long haul. I don’t see another opportunity coming for years now, if at all, but Peter is absolutely right. We’d be going all in on a bad bet, with far less to win than we’d have to lose – and even if we won, we’d still be in it for the long haul”, said Brown.
BBC NEWS, 13 August 2010
“The Prime Minister today made a statement that despite some pressure being placed on him to call a short-notice General Election to try to resolve the Hung parliament that resulted from May’s Elections, he would not ‘selfishly put Party advantage ahead of that of the country’.
He further said :’Despite opinion polls now showing that we would improve our position and possibly secure an outright majority, it would be irresponsible to jeopardise the hard won economic stability that we have carved out since May. Despite the foolish downgrading of our debt by the rating agencies that missed all of the lead-up to the economic turmoils of a few years ago, the money markets have continually reaffirmed their confidence in our deficit and growth plans, with record low borrowing costs. Any major political uncertainties could damage this fragile recovery and I for one won’t gamble the well-being of hard-working Britons just to try to snatch some political advantage. There will not be a “cut-and-run” election – the next election will not be until it is due. By which point, the country will have recovered under our stewardship”.
In other news …
David Milliband spoke first. “Deborah, thanks for that, but …”
“David”. Mandelson interrupted. “I think we should let Gordon have a word first. He is, after all, our Leader”.
“Thank you, Peter,” said Brown. Not even pausing for a glare at Milliband – that’s actually a surprise – he’s completely focussed on this. Numbers, I suppose. Right in his comfort zone, mused Mandelson – Brown pressed on. Standing up, the bulky Scot turned to face the rest of the room.
“Whatever we decide, we decide tonight - and we stick to it”. He swept the room with a glare. "And we release it – united – into any and all tame journalists. I’m a bit … twitchy … about setting hares running to row back later”
Some embarrassed chuckles greeted this. Brown gave a half smile. “On the face of it, these numbers are encouraging. Very encouraging. My instincts are saying ‘go for it’. Does anyone have a good reason why not?”
“Might be our best shot”, agreed Ed Milliband. His brother, his expression bland, agreed. “I can’t see a better opportunity coming our way for years”.
The murmurs of agreement swelled, until Mandelson spoke up. “Why?”
Faces turned to look at him, expressions quizzical. “What?” asked Brown, looking annoyed.
“Why?”, repeated Mandelson. “It’s been barely three months since the last election. Without unity of Opposition, we could have nearly five years ahead of us. Difficult years, I’ll grant you, but more difficult for the impotent Cameron, Huhne and Congdon than for us.”
He focussed on Mattinson. “Deborah, dear. Please tell us the best and worst cases. Practical cases, that is – anything requiring extremes of fortune, please omit”.
Mattinson glanced at Brown, who nodded, with his irritated expression giving way to a thoughtful one.
“Well, the variables are huge, especially due to the UKIP surge. To be honest, I’d prefer it if we could model every constituency individually, especially because the ‘safe-seat’ category is now under threat. In addition, small shifts can have huge outcomes when we start from so well-balanced a position”
“Yes, my dear, we take it for read that the predictability has become very fraught”, interjected Mandelson. “Please skip over the mechanics and give us ballpark figures”
Mattinson drew herself up decisively. “Right, we have a number of scenarios. Scenario One: Labour sustain their position; the Conservatives lose votes most of all to UKIP; the Lib Dems fail to make ground. Labour majority of 20”
David Milliband broke in. “That sounds good. Probability?”
“I’ll cover probabilities at the end. Scenario Two: We drift back down, Conservatives hold off the worst of the UKIP challenge, the Lib Dems make ground preferentially against us, especially in student constituencies. Conservative minority, possibly even a thin majority”
“A depressing outcome”, said Mandelson. “I take it there are other scenarios?”
“Oh yes. ‘UKIP Dream’ has us drifting down, but the Tories failing to hold them off; the ‘Lib Dem Dream’ has them in kingmaker position – which happens more often than I think we’d like when we run projections; it can happen even with them losing seats – there’s about a dozen possible outcomes. Those two, however, are very marginally the most likely. Call it 15% for Scenario One and 10% for Scenario Two”
“And what assumptions on public interest changes did you make,my dear?”, asked Mandelson.
“Oh, we just used a randomised stochastic one. Basically, the probability of your position improving was about equal to no change and to your position falling”, replied Mattinson.
“In which case, I fear that I must strongly advise caution”, said Mandelson. “In my opinion, the public – fickle beast that it is – has a stronger chance of swinging behind Cameron”.
He turned towards Brown. “Consider, Gordon: if we call an election now for the start of October, what will be the first news item of the campaign? Samantha Cameron is due to give birth any time over the next month. This shouldn’t be a political issue – but it will further serve to underline human qualities of the Leader of the Opposition”
He took a sip of water from the glass in front of him. “One strength we have is that the Tories remain distrusted and toxic. A cute baby automatically triggers certain areas of the human brain – the family cannot be so bad, can they? If we lose too many Mumsnet-style voters, we get disproportionate losses.”
“We also have the question of who will stand in Oldham East and Saddleworth? You acted decisively and promptly in suspending Phil Woollas from the front bench and proclaiming your distaste for the alleged actions – but promising to suspend final judgement until a proper process had been complete. This won’t happen before winter comes. So who stands there?”.
Mandelson shrugged. “A single constituency may seem a petty focus, but you can guarantee that the Tories and especially the Lib Dems will blow this up as much as they can to paint us all as racists and hypocrites”
“And we have the unknown and unknowable. We will have revisions to GDP growth for the last quarter. That was a very welcome number – however, an increase or no change would not change anything. Good news replacing good news is no news. If it were to decrease on revision by even a fraction, the news changes. That’s what – a fifty-fifty chance?”
“Add to that the fact that we’re broke, the Lib Dems have no money, and UKIP have only really Stuart Wheeler to draw upon, and he can’t fund too much more than a few directed campaigns. The Tories are the only ones with money to spend on a campaign. I have tried to take steps to ensure that their focus on spending is not against us, however, but this won’t remove their entire advantage”, continued Mandelson.
“But not going for it last time was what screwed us!”, protested Douglas Alexander.
“No, dear boy, not squashing the rumours was what screwed you last time. Consider – what would we put in the manifesto? Reheat the last one that got effectively rejected? What policies do we want to see? Come on, let’s hear them”
There was a prolonged, uncomfortable silence.
“Um – smaller class sizes?”, ventured Yvette Cooper.
“We could ban plastic carrier bags in supermarkets …”, Ed Milliband trailed off, discouraged.
The silence resumed.
“Okay, we get your point”, growled Brown.
“Indeed. We have little left to say apart from ‘let us go on as before’. Which the electorate don’t want – it’s simply that they fear the Tories right now. However, we also have to look at the downside of not going – we’ll be locked into a minority Government for the next four and a half years. We’ll lose seats to by-election defeats and backbenchers may get more and more disruptive. Piloting legislation through will be difficult – but then again, we’ve established that there’s not much we really want to put through, other than to keep the Tories out through the recovery. We may need to go cap in hand to the Yellow Peril before the end of the Parliament”, said Mandelson.
Unhappy glances were traded across the table.
“Gentlemen – we are not in a happy position whichever way we go, but then again – no-one else is, either, and we have the luxury of being able to actually do things and control the agenda. To some extent. To summarise: If we go for it, we have nothing to say to the electorate other than ‘hey, we’ve had some nice polls recently and we’d like to take advantage of them'. With nothing unanticipated blowing up, we start the campaign with the focus on the happy family of David Cameron, ourselves vulnerable over toxic charges, and a fifty-fifty call on bad news or no news on our strongest line. All this is in order to buy an outside chance at a majority – less than one in six at the very best assumptions; a lot lower than that when these forecastable events are factored in. All other scenarios have us no better than now at best, a lot worse than now at worst. And with the status quo - unless the Tories, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the Irish all line up against us, we can govern until 2015, albeit with restricted room to manouevre. This outside chance at a majority buys us six more months if it pays off – admittedly more comfortably. If it doesn’t, we lose our control of events and hand over credit for the recovery to Cameron and Osborne”
Mandelson shook his head sadly. “I’m sorry, Gordon – I don’t think it’s worth the gamble. Oh, and further to that – I have information that the Tories are running scared of UKIP”
“Ha! Not a surprise, but welcome”, growled Brown.
“Indeed. Four and a half more years gives them more time to focus excessively on their own little problem to the detriment of their focus on us. The longer they are distracted, the better”
Brown tilted his head, considering. “Okay – you’re very persuasive. Can anyone shoot down these points?”
Mandelson shrugged. “It’s possible that there are no right answers – with the status quo, events could derail us – especially if the Parliamentary Party becomes too fractious. Rebellions could put us down and out – but to be fair, that could be the case even with us in a fractionally better state”.
“You leave the Party to me”, growled Brown. “Any more for any more?”. His eyes swept the room. One by one, they shrugged or shook their heads. “Ed? David? Douglas? Alan? Andy? Jack? Harriet? Jim? Yvette? Shaun? Ed? Hilary? Anyone?”
“Right. Decided. Make no mistake, everyone – we’re now in it for the long haul. I don’t see another opportunity coming for years now, if at all, but Peter is absolutely right. We’d be going all in on a bad bet, with far less to win than we’d have to lose – and even if we won, we’d still be in it for the long haul”, said Brown.
BBC NEWS, 13 August 2010
“The Prime Minister today made a statement that despite some pressure being placed on him to call a short-notice General Election to try to resolve the Hung parliament that resulted from May’s Elections, he would not ‘selfishly put Party advantage ahead of that of the country’.
He further said :’Despite opinion polls now showing that we would improve our position and possibly secure an outright majority, it would be irresponsible to jeopardise the hard won economic stability that we have carved out since May. Despite the foolish downgrading of our debt by the rating agencies that missed all of the lead-up to the economic turmoils of a few years ago, the money markets have continually reaffirmed their confidence in our deficit and growth plans, with record low borrowing costs. Any major political uncertainties could damage this fragile recovery and I for one won’t gamble the well-being of hard-working Britons just to try to snatch some political advantage. There will not be a “cut-and-run” election – the next election will not be until it is due. By which point, the country will have recovered under our stewardship”.
In other news …
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AndyC
Donor
GODDAMN IT! I wanted to see another election!!
This doesn't preclude that
It just means that Mandelson and Brown don't want another election ...