Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing

[Thande]

I doubt the Huhne scandal would sink the Lib Dems that much in this scenario (I mean this is the party that survived its leader trying to murder his gay lover for goodness sake), there'd just be jokes about "is there anyone in the Lib Dems' last few leadership elections who isn't scandal-ridden?" and Clegg would probably get the top job...it would be very interesting to see Clegg as leader under very different circumstances for the party.

I wonder if Elwyn Watkins will pull it off this time. Could be a hard result to model considering all the suspicions that Tories voted tactically for him because of the coalition in OTL.

 

[AndyC]

As the TL-writer said to his wife.

(sorry, I don't know what it is about you that makes me so sexually inappropriate)

A great update, nice to see How The Yellow Side Lives. Nice irony of Labour being forced to axe EMA - I look forward to more analysis of the answer to Dave's favourite question ('what would Labour cut?') as the TL continues.

Thanks
The EMA axeing was being telegraphed by Labour as far back as 2007, so it wasn't a sacred cow. Couple to that the minimal negative effect on the economy together with the known lower propensity to vote of this demographic, add in the recorded forgiveness levels of the younger voters to Labour (eg tuition fees and top-up fees), and it was definitely doomed.

For me, the big irony is the Lib Dems ITTL get to rely on the student vote ...

I wonder when the economist in the room is going to addressed, I imagine Huhne's collapsing marriage would have gained more attention in the media than before. Especially if Vicki decides to sink her husband's career earlier than OTL, meaning that we could see the LibDems do worse and the nightmare scenario of UKIP becoming a third party in terms of votes with voters going red, blue and purple.

Interesting update, Andy.

Thanks, Blackadder. Huhne will have his day in the spotlight ...

Another interesting update, I don't remember anything about an Aid worker in OTL, I assume it's some ATL incident that's cropped up due to butterflies?

UK aid worker Linda Norgrove was killed on the night of the 8th October 2010 during a rescue attempt that went wrong in Afghanistan
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1319077/UK-aid-worker-Linda-Norgrove-killed-Afghanistan.html

 

[AndyC]

From “On the cusp”

“Student riots in London in early November of 2010 following the publication of the long-awaited Browne Report into University funding resulted in two serious injuries when police officers were struck by a falling fire extinguisher thrown from the top of Victoria Street, the building in which the Labour Party headquarters was housed. Four student protesters were arrested, including the disabled Jody McIntyre …”

Primrose Hill

The phone rang.

“Yes?”, asked George Osborne.

“George, my dear”, came Peter Mandelson’s voice. “No doubt you remember our conversation in summer?”

“Er – of course”, said Osborne hesitantly.

“Well, we have a small problem as well right now, and it’s one that could end up affecting you”

“I’m listening”

“The Browne Review into tuition fees. The vote in the House comes up next week”, said Mandelson

“Ah – I can see you’ll have a problem. The Lib Dems won’t play ball on that, I guess”

“Exactly. The SNP and Plaid intend to abstain. So will the Northern Irish MPs”

“So what’s your problem? Unless my arithmetic is faulty, you have three hundred and twelve MPs left now that Woollas has gone – plus your Deputy Speakers. We’ve got two hundred and forty eight – plus one Deputy Squeaker … er Speaker. The Lib Dems have fifty two. That’s three hundred. Even if Lucas, Taylor and the Kippers all line up against you as well, you’ll still win”

“George, George. You must know that there is considerable unrest in the Party about the outcomes of the Report. We had major rebellions last time on tuition fees”

“Yeah, but you had the luxury of a comfortable majority. You and I both know that things being on a razors edge concentrates the mind hugely. And you could always make it a confidence vote”.

“Even so, there will inevitably be a hard core. And one should never make threats that one may not want to have to carry out – your John Major found that out”

“Hang on”. Osborne cradled the phone between his chin and shoulder. He scribbled a comment on a financial report that an aide had handed him, hovering for a response.

“Sorry, Peter – just looking at some economic figures. Last couple of months don’t look quite so good, do they?”

“Oh, don’t remind me about that. Gordon is not at all happy right now. Nevertheless, we remain in our quandary”

“What do you want me to do?”, asked Osborne, a tint of exasperation in his voice. “We’re hardly going to vote for the proposals. Would you, in our position?”

Mandelson’s tone was conciliatory. “Of course not, of course not. But we have to keep in mind the economic conditions and the affordability of the funding for the sector. We can’t afford to have our University Sector – which is world-leading and a great source of strength for us – to be robbed of financial support. And we can’t go on funding it the way we have been”

Osborne sighed. “Peter – you’re making the sort of pitch I’d expect to see made in the House. I fully accept that something has to be done – but, frankly, that’s Labour’s problem right now, isn’t it?”

“Ah – but if things go wrong and it gets rejected, the problem will not be solved. You do intend to try to win power, don’t you?”

“Of course – but voting for this – or even abstaining – is hardly likely to help us get into power, is it?”, demanded Osborne.

“You’ll just have the same problem if and when you take power, however, and it will be more urgent by then”. Mandelson’s tone turned more persuasive. “George, I’m not asking you to vote for – or even to officially abstain. Just be – less than rigorous about your turnout. Allow us to ‘steal a march on you’ as it were. Even if just a dozen or so of your MPs were away – on doubtless worthy grounds – we’ll be able to get this cleared away for good”. His voice hardened. “And, George … you did promise. I even said at the time that I’d cash in that promise during the Browne Review, and you agreed. I hadn’t really wanted to make this so explicit – but this is the payback you promised”

Osborne let out a long breath. “Okay, Peter – I’ll see what I can do. If this comes off, I expect that we’ll be completely even on favours”

“Of course, dear boy, of course”. Mandelson sounded relieved.

From “On the cusp”

The Parliamentary vote on implementation of the tuition fees saw an expected Government revolt, but significantly smaller than feared. Nine MPs voted against the Government, in a vote that did not, in the end, have a confidence clause attached. The three hundred and three remaining Labour MPs did, however, just outweigh the combined forces of the fifty-two Liberal Democrats, the rebel Labour MPs, the four MPs from UKIP and the Green Party, Mr Taylor from IKHH and a slightly disappointing turnout by the Conservative Party of two hundred and thirty six.

The final result of 303-302 was as close as it could possibly have been and fuelled a backlash against the Conservative Party, who had had an even dozen MPs out of the country at the time. “Just one more” became a student refrain.

The Conservatives problems deepened as pressure on their Communications Director, Andy Coulson, steadily mounted …”

 

[Blackadder mk 2]

Ah, anything to avoid looking like they back the Tories.

Mandy may have cashed in his favour a bit early but he probably had to do it in order to avoid too much negative press, the Murdoch scandal is going to be very bad for both parties now as Brown can't pretend Labour was never friendly with him like Miliband could which could fuel a LibDem/UKIP boom in the polls for a while.

All in all, looks like the next election is going to be a very messy affair. Not to mention that Europe is probably being looked at with less friendly eyes by the political establishment. Good work, Andy.

 

[Plumber]

Oh lordy lawd, that was good.

 

[Lord Roem]

That is broadly speaking what I would have imagined happening, good work. I assume that one would have the usual dinosaurs in the SCG and perhaps a few of the impressionable newbies voting against, but you are quite right that conviction tends to take a back seat to pragmatism, especially when you actually have a risk of bringing the government down.

I am not entirely sure by the update if Labour adopted the Browne Review wholesale, or if you had a similar concession to capping the fees as we saw in OTL. If the latter, that will come back to damage the government, but I get the feeling that Brown would have tried to force a Graduate Tax in by the back door, but that is just hypothesis.

Yes, excellent work. You're damn good at this.

 

[Thoresby]

Very interesting update for a very interesting TL. Good to see that in this tl at least that odious little twerp McIntyre is going to jail. Though bad luck for the (imaginary) coppers.

 

[Meadow]

Bloody brilliant. Very believable Mandyisms in method and style. I can see he's played them perfectly - the student core, happy to attack Labour from the left whenever possible but always more ready to man the barricades against the Tories, can now say 'the so-called Opposition don't care enough about students to turn up to parliament' and any hope of student support for the Tories goes down the drain when it might have gone up slightly because, after all, they did vote against it.

The Lib Dems are the big winners here - I wonder what Mandy has planned for them, or whether his luck and genius will run out.

 

[AndyC]

Ah, anything to avoid looking like they back the Tories.

Mandy may have cashed in his favour a bit early but he probably had to do it in order to avoid too much negative press, the Murdoch scandal is going to be very bad for both parties now as Brown can't pretend Labour was never friendly with him like Miliband could which could fuel a LibDem/UKIP boom in the polls for a while.

All in all, looks like the next election is going to be a very messy affair. Not to mention that Europe is probably being looked at with less friendly eyes by the political establishment. Good work, Andy.

Mandy has a short mental list of foreseeable rebellions and is having to play it by ear to see each one off. He would have preferred to ride this one out without cashing in his favour, you're right, but it wasn't one where Osborne would certainly refuse (like one or two in the future) and it was one where it could make all the difference.

And yes, there is potential for the next election to make the previous one look regular and predictable ...

Oh lordy lawd, that was good.

Aw, shucks.
Thanks

That is broadly speaking what I would have imagined happening, good work. I assume that one would have the usual dinosaurs in the SCG and perhaps a few of the impressionable newbies voting against, but you are quite right that conviction tends to take a back seat to pragmatism, especially when you actually have a risk of bringing the government down.

I am not entirely sure by the update if Labour adopted the Browne Review wholesale, or if you had a similar concession to capping the fees as we saw in OTL. If the latter, that will come back to damage the government, but I get the feeling that Brown would have tried to force a Graduate Tax in by the back door, but that is just hypothesis.

Yes, excellent work. You're damn good at this.

It wasn't specified, because I jumped over the proposed amendments (to limit the fees to £5000, £6000, £9000). Brown (and Mandelson) chose not to limit the fees to avoid a permanent "fees double" or "fees triple" meme, instead choosing to portray it as "a backdoor graduate tax" (as you say).

And thanks

Very interesting update for a very interesting TL. Good to see that in this tl at least that odious little twerp McIntyre is going to jail. Though bad luck for the (imaginary) coppers.

Thanks. At least the coppers survived. And yes, McIntyre gets his comeuppance.

Bloody brilliant. Very believable Mandyisms in method and style. I can see he's played them perfectly - the student core, happy to attack Labour from the left whenever possible but always more ready to man the barricades against the Tories, can now say 'the so-called Opposition don't care enough about students to turn up to parliament' and any hope of student support for the Tories goes down the drain when it might have gone up slightly because, after all, they did vote against it.

The Lib Dems are the big winners here - I wonder what Mandy has planned for them, or whether his luck and genius will run out.

Thanks.
Mandy is playing it by ear to an extent. He saw an opportunity to simultaneously get past a rebellion point and mitigate leakage to the Tories and share the blame and he seized it. And yes, the Tories have lost their chance to pull off some of the student support (such as it was).

 

[Thande]

The Tories chose quite a clever strategy there in 'not quite enough people turning up for the vote, oh dear, how sad'. Perhaps too clever to be plausible, like how you understand David Cameron's political philosophy better than he does

It's both realistic and depressing that this TL presents the British government as being a case of which party is in power makes little difference to what actually happens.

 

[Meadow]

The Tories chose quite a clever strategy there in 'not quite enough people turning up for the vote, oh dear, how sad'. Perhaps too clever to be plausible, like how you understand David Cameron's political philosophy better than he does

It's both realistic and depressing that this TL presents the British government as being a case of which party is in power makes little difference to what actually happens.

Surely you know that if TUSC were in charge, we'd be living with zero debt and growing fat from the tax we got off the rotten bankers the bonuses the bankers the bonuses the Eurocrats the bankers?

 

[The Red]

It's both realistic and depressing that this TL presents the British government as being a case of which party is in power makes little difference to what actually happens.

This is the one problem I have this TL, it seems that Brown's gone from being so stubbornly left wing that he'd almost reject his own manifesto to a completely cynical politico.

 

[Meadow]

This is the one problem I have this TL, it seems that Brown's gone from being so stubbornly left wing that he'd almost reject his own manifesto to a completely cynical politico.

Has he, though? Apart from Browne, which everyone knows would have happened, the capital spending obsession is still lurking, held up only by there being No Money Left.

 

[The Red]

Has he, though? Apart from Browne, which everyone knows would have happened, the capital spending obsession is still lurking, held up only by there being No Money Left.

On this issue at least, it seems like he would fight for a lower rate and/or some sort of graduate tax.

Excellent as always though!

 

[AndyC]

On this issue at least, it seems like he would fight for a lower rate and/or some sort of graduate tax.

Ah, but what's the difference between the Browne Review recommendations and a graduate tax?

1 - You can get the money back from people who leave the country (either EU students returning home, or emigrating graduates)
2 - There's a cap on the total amount of "graduate tax" you pay in your graduate lifetime
3 - That cap will be different dependant on what course/university you go to (so Waste Management With Dance at Northampton will not cost as much over your lifetime as a medical degree, or PPE at Oxford).

Of course, it's quite involved and complex in comparison. Very Brownite, in fact ...

Excellent as always though!

Thanks.

 

[AndyC]

The Tories chose quite a clever strategy there in 'not quite enough people turning up for the vote, oh dear, how sad'. Perhaps too clever to be plausible, like how you understand David Cameron's political philosophy better than he does

It's both realistic and depressing that this TL presents the British government as being a case of which party is in power makes little difference to what actually happens.

To be fair, I'm consciously highlighting the similarities. There are differences - the deficit and economic growth are different, but not hugely so (both parties had fairly similar plans and the world situation is the same for both). There's not been an NHS reorganization, attempted redrawing of boundaries, no moves on Lords Reforms yet (they tied it to an AV referendum in their manifesto and Gordon doesn't want to do this yet because when it's done, they'll have fewer levers to hold over the Lib Dems), no cap on Housing Benefit. International Aid is lower than it otherwise would have been.

A lot of what they want to do is "after the financial crisis" and they are stymied by the lack of opportunity to spend money; any Government would be in the same boat for this period. And Labour were really not expecting to still be in Downing Street after the 2010 election in any case; there are a few flagship proposals that are still going through early Committee and feasibility stages ITTL. It's only been seven months since the result, after all.

 

[iainbhx]

Surely you know that if TUSC were in charge, we'd be living with zero debt and growing fat from the tax we got off the rotten bankers the bonuses the bankers the bonuses the Eurocrats the bankers?

I always assume that their first actions will be to pull the big internet switch and close the borders. It will be too late by then, of course.

 

[AndyC]

BBC News

“We go now to the count at Oldham East and Saddleworth where analysts expect bad news for Labour in the re-held election”

“Thank you, David. The candidates are in the hall as the Returning Officer prepares to read out the results. We have heard unofficially that a request by UKIP for a recount has been rejected; we don’t know the background behind that. There was a rumour that they might ‘come through the middle’ between the Liberal Democrats and Labour, but most serious analysts dismissed the possibility”, said the earnest correspondent. As a relative junior, he didn’t get to cover much breaking news; a by-election at nearly 2am was about the limit of what he could expect.

The hubbub died down as the Returning Officer cleared his throat.

“Ms Deborah Abrahams, Labour Party: Seven thousand, four hundred and seventy two votes”

There was a moment of noise as a murmur ran around the hallway. The correspondent breathlessly whispered into his microphone. “A worse result than even the analysts predicted, less than half of the number of votes Labour received in the General Election”

The Returning Officer had cleared his throat again and was glaring around the hall.

“Mr Derek Adams, British National Party: Eight hundred and eighty seven votes”

The correspondent whispered. “A certain loss of his deposit there, the BNP will be most displeased to not even break into four figures”

“Mr Kashif Ali, Conservative Party: Five thousand, two hundred and twenty five votes”

“Mr Peter Allen, Green Party: Four hundred and twenty votes”

“Mr David Bishop, Bus-Pass Elvis Party: Fifty three votes”

“Mr Nick ‘The Flying Brick’ Delves, Monster Raving Loony Party: One hundred and forty two votes”

“Mr Nigel Farage, UK Independence Party: Seven thousand, two hundred and twenty three votes”

“Mr Laurence Kaye, Pirate Party UK: Eighty eight votes”

“Mr Stephen Morris, English Democrats: One hundred and thirty two votes”

“Mr Elwyn Watkins, Liberal Democrat Party: Twelve thousand and thirteen votes. I therefore declare …”

The correspondent quietly spoke over the final few words as he faced the camera. “An easy win for the Liberal Democrats in the end, as expected. Back to the studio”

From “On the cusp”

“The Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election on the 13th of January, 2011, showed a catastrophic loss in Labour support in a former heartland. Almost pushed to third by a surging UKIP, the party suffered a 7.2 percent swing against it as the Liberal Democrats triumphantly seized the seat on a vote share of 35.7%. Surprisingly, the Conservatives resisted the expected squeeze to some degree, losing only 1.7% of vote share despite starting – and finishing – in fourth place. Minor parties suffered worst, with the BNP and Greens both disappointed with their results. Coming hard on the heels of bad headlines economically as music retailer HMV hit the headlines announcing the closure of 10% of its outlets and the jailing of former Labour MP David Chaytor, the year 2011 started inauspiciously for Gordon Brown.

The Conservative Party was not able to capitalise on Labour’s woes as it was rocked by continuous pressure on its Communications Director, Andy Coulson, over the News of the World phone hacking affair. He would resign before the end of January.”

Primrose Hill

David Cameron was sipping a glass of wine, looking glumly out of the window. He hadn’t spoken in more than five minutes. The only other people around the table were George Osborne, Steve Hilton and William Hague. Eventually, Cameron shook his head and looked around the table.

“I really didn’t want him to have to go, but …”

Hilton interrupted. “You didn’t have a choice. Andy had become the story for too long. He knew, and he understood”

Osborne chipped in. “The problem was that he was bloody good at his job. Even with Labour losing Old and Sad, I think they actually start the year a step ahead of us, with Andy’s scalp taken”

“Polls don’t look too good”, said Hague. “Do we have any good news coming out way at all?”

Hilton shrugged. Osborne tilted his head. “Well – December was a bad month financially for the country. With the economy contracting last quarter …”

“Only by 0.1%”, protested Hilton.

“Still a contraction”, insisted Osborne. Hilton shrugged again.

Osborne continued. “… the ONS announcement next week will be crucial. Another contraction puts us into double dip territory and that’s horrible for Brown”

“Arguably not his fault, though – it’s all Europe, isn’t it?”, asked Hague mildly.

“Who cares? If it were the other way around, you can guarantee the buggers would be hanging it on us”, said Cameron, visibly perking up.
“Anything else? What about the foreign sphere?”. Cameron looked at Hague.

“Well, the Middle East is going berserk. Ever since that fella set himself on fire in December … I reckon Tunisia’ll just be the first. It’s spreading everywhere. Egypt is right on the edge. So’s Syria. Even Libya’s under pressure. Oman, Yemen, Morocco – I really don’t know where it’s going to end!” Hague was looking sombre.

“And we have the undiplomatic lump squatting in Downing Street. Great!”, muttered Cameron. “Anything we can look forward to against the Lib Dems and UKIP?”

“Well, Huhne is making noises about AV again. Seems to think that Brown hasn’t followed through with a promise. Oh, and he’s just divorced his wife. Typical that the media have given him a free ride, though. The lucky sod seems to be completely Teflon”, said Osborne, consulting his notes.

“Maybe we can cause some grief on the AV thing”, mused Hilton.

“With UKIP – Farage is still being a grumbler about lack of leadership. Kind of like an old car – wherever they go, they’re experiencing a high-pitched whine in the background. Unfortunately Wheeler and the party core are firmly behind Congdon – nothing succeeds like success. Nearly beating Labour into third at Old and Sad has given them a boost. Plus, Congdon keeps rabbitting on about the Eurozone crisis proving him right. Frankly, even if he has got a grain of truth there, I’m getting sick of the repetition”

“Someone’s giving him good advice then”, interjected Hilton. “Andy always said that by the time we’re all thoroughly sick of a message, it’s just sinking in to the electorate”

“And, of course, the prisoners right to vote thing is playing right into Congdon’s hands”, continued Osborne.

“That’s not an EU thing – it’s a European Court of Human Rights thing!”, said Hilton.

“Doesn’t matter – it’s close enough for the media, so Congdon gets a boost”

“Oh goody. Everyone gets good news apart from us”, said Cameron sarcastically. “Oh well, guys. Always darkest before the dawn”

“Actually, I find that it’s quite light before the dawn”, said Hilton, absently. “It’s darkest about one or two am. If there’s no Moon in the sky, or there’s cloud cover, of course”

Cameron glared at him.

“Oh. Sorry”

 

[Meadow]

Lovely bit of Steve Hilton. Nice touch having Nige run in Old and Sad, I'm sure he's itching to get in amongst his fellow members. Congdon is an MP, right?

Looking forward to more, seems butterflies haven't left the UK yet, what with the Arab Spring kicking off soon. Libya may well be very different though.

 

[wargamer6]

Lovely bit of Steve Hilton. Nice touch having Nige run in Old and Sad, I'm sure he's itching to get in amongst his fellow members. Congdon is an MP, right?

He's the MP for Forest of Dean, IIRC.