The Fourth Lectern - A 2010 Election TL
- Thread starter AndyC
- Start date
Good work! I followed the debates and election last year with great interest.
I'm not convinced there's enough slack in the system for UKIP to hit 25%, but you've rolled the dice - let them fall where they may!
I'm not convinced there's enough slack in the system for UKIP to hit 25%, but you've rolled the dice - let them fall where they may!
AndyC
Donor
From: No longer singing the Blues by Jenny Rodgers
Andy Coulson: The next day was very nervy for us. We wanted to see how Brown's gamble had come across, how Cameron's performance had been seen and whether Congdon's error had cost him. We needed a poll where the fieldwork had all been done after the debate, so the YouGov for the Sun was the key one for us. By about ten to eight in the evening, we received a leak about the one to be published the following day:
Conservatives: 31 (+5)
Labour: 24 (-1)
Lib Dems: 20 (-2)
UKIP: 17 (-2)
In the Thirties and seven points clear! Our source also had access to the cross-tabs. We'd picked up some from the Lib Dems, but the remainder were more hostile to us. We guessed that Brown had scared off the Lib Dems who were more unsymapthetic to him than to us, and they'd fled to us. Labour were well within the margin of error of the previous poll, and UKIP were continuing to slide.
We breathed a sigh of relief and I read the draft of an anti Lib/Lab open letter for the Times that we'd got a bunch of entrepreneurs to write. It looked as though Brown's gamble had backfired, he'd still been hit by Bigot-gate, our anti-split-vote campaign was gaining traction ... I almost relaxed for the first time since the first debate. Then it happened.
Andy Coulson: The next day was very nervy for us. We wanted to see how Brown's gamble had come across, how Cameron's performance had been seen and whether Congdon's error had cost him. We needed a poll where the fieldwork had all been done after the debate, so the YouGov for the Sun was the key one for us. By about ten to eight in the evening, we received a leak about the one to be published the following day:
Conservatives: 31 (+5)
Labour: 24 (-1)
Lib Dems: 20 (-2)
UKIP: 17 (-2)
In the Thirties and seven points clear! Our source also had access to the cross-tabs. We'd picked up some from the Lib Dems, but the remainder were more hostile to us. We guessed that Brown had scared off the Lib Dems who were more unsymapthetic to him than to us, and they'd fled to us. Labour were well within the margin of error of the previous poll, and UKIP were continuing to slide.
We breathed a sigh of relief and I read the draft of an anti Lib/Lab open letter for the Times that we'd got a bunch of entrepreneurs to write. It looked as though Brown's gamble had backfired, he'd still been hit by Bigot-gate, our anti-split-vote campaign was gaining traction ... I almost relaxed for the first time since the first debate. Then it happened.
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Would this be a bad time to say I'm taking a break for two weeks?
You fiend!
AndyC
Donor
CCHQ, 30th April 2010. Although it’s nearly 9 pm, the place is heaving.
In a fairly large room, people calling to each other, computers are purring, multiple large screens are showing every news channel. The sound is on Sky News right now, as there’s been a rumour that Adam Boulton has got a scoop.
SKY NEWS
Adam Boulton: "We’ve been fortunate enough tonight to speak to Baroness Thatcher, who can give us one minute of her time for a comment."
Andy Coulson silently puts down his coffee. What the hell – this wasn’t in the grid. She was supposed to be kept well and truly off stage!.
He holds up his hand for silence. No one notices immediately, so he bellows “Shut up and listen!”. The hubbub dies down swiftly. They’ve missed the first few words of Boulton’s question, but that was just preamble.
Adam Boulton: "…with him in the late Seventies and influenced your thinking then. You were telling us earlier – before we were recording, about your opinion of him."
Oh no. Oh no oh no oh no oh no. They’re talking about Congdon. Don’t you dare do what I think you’re going to do
Out loud “Can someone shut the old bat up right now?!”
Horrified looks from many of the people around him at this insult to Lady Thatcher – horrified realisation from a few more who’ve worked out what Coulson has.
Baroness Thatcher: "Well, Timothy always spoke a lot of sense back then …"
Shitshitshitshitshitshitshit! Fuck! It IS about UKIP. Just say something like “it’s a shame he’s changed for the worse” . Just say it! Please!
Baroness Thatcher: "… so I’m not surprised that he still does."
FuckfuckfuckfuckFUCK!
An instant of total silence in CCHQ and then uproar. Steve Hilton is looking perplexed. “Why all the concern – we didn’t want any toxicity on our campaign – now it's on the UKIP campaign”
Coulson sighs. “Steve, the voters never rejected Thatcher, and there’s still a lot of support for her. A lot of hatred, sure, but look at some polls of 'which PM was best'. She still does really well. And a lot of people hated her for personal reasons – like they thought she took pride in causing pain, or ridiculous things like that, but many of those still admired her, and thought she talked sense, even if her implementation of it was – in their opinion – a bit nasty”
Hilton isn’t dumb. “So … fuck. Fuck! We’ve been fucked”
Coulson. “Exactly”
In a fairly large room, people calling to each other, computers are purring, multiple large screens are showing every news channel. The sound is on Sky News right now, as there’s been a rumour that Adam Boulton has got a scoop.
SKY NEWS
Adam Boulton: "We’ve been fortunate enough tonight to speak to Baroness Thatcher, who can give us one minute of her time for a comment."
Andy Coulson silently puts down his coffee. What the hell – this wasn’t in the grid. She was supposed to be kept well and truly off stage!.
He holds up his hand for silence. No one notices immediately, so he bellows “Shut up and listen!”. The hubbub dies down swiftly. They’ve missed the first few words of Boulton’s question, but that was just preamble.
Adam Boulton: "…with him in the late Seventies and influenced your thinking then. You were telling us earlier – before we were recording, about your opinion of him."
Oh no. Oh no oh no oh no oh no. They’re talking about Congdon. Don’t you dare do what I think you’re going to do
Out loud “Can someone shut the old bat up right now?!”
Horrified looks from many of the people around him at this insult to Lady Thatcher – horrified realisation from a few more who’ve worked out what Coulson has.
Baroness Thatcher: "Well, Timothy always spoke a lot of sense back then …"
Shitshitshitshitshitshitshit! Fuck! It IS about UKIP. Just say something like “it’s a shame he’s changed for the worse” . Just say it! Please!
Baroness Thatcher: "… so I’m not surprised that he still does."
FuckfuckfuckfuckFUCK!
An instant of total silence in CCHQ and then uproar. Steve Hilton is looking perplexed. “Why all the concern – we didn’t want any toxicity on our campaign – now it's on the UKIP campaign”
Coulson sighs. “Steve, the voters never rejected Thatcher, and there’s still a lot of support for her. A lot of hatred, sure, but look at some polls of 'which PM was best'. She still does really well. And a lot of people hated her for personal reasons – like they thought she took pride in causing pain, or ridiculous things like that, but many of those still admired her, and thought she talked sense, even if her implementation of it was – in their opinion – a bit nasty”
Hilton isn’t dumb. “So … fuck. Fuck! We’ve been fucked”
Coulson. “Exactly”
Good gravy. That's devastating, especially with Southern C2's.
The only way out is incredibly dangerous, because it could be Bigot-Gate 2 and that's to artfully spin up the Great White She Elephant's dementia. "Journalist takes advantage of confused old lady" sort of thing. You really need Carol to lead the charge on that one.
I suppose you could always fight it with a heavy dose of "teh Crazy" and wheel the very disgruntled Nikki Sinclaire out, she has a wealth of stories about UKIP MEP's, but she patently needs a large dose of dried frog pills herself.
Of course, the question is what journalist would take advantage in that way, but "Jabba" is about the best choice.
The only way out is incredibly dangerous, because it could be Bigot-Gate 2 and that's to artfully spin up the Great White She Elephant's dementia. "Journalist takes advantage of confused old lady" sort of thing. You really need Carol to lead the charge on that one.
I suppose you could always fight it with a heavy dose of "teh Crazy" and wheel the very disgruntled Nikki Sinclaire out, she has a wealth of stories about UKIP MEP's, but she patently needs a large dose of dried frog pills herself.
Of course, the question is what journalist would take advantage in that way, but "Jabba" is about the best choice.
Boulton probably still has a poster of Maggie over his bed, but you're right, he is a disgusting piece of slime when it comes to journalistic integrity so Coulson could turn himself into this TL's magnificent bastard if he manages to convince the public that Boulton was 'taking advantage'.
Good lord. The Tories are fucked. Unless Cameron proposes an unconditional coalition with Congdon before Polling Day? Doubt Hilton will let him though...
Good lord. The Tories are fucked. Unless Cameron proposes an unconditional coalition with Congdon before Polling Day? Doubt Hilton will let him though...
Cameron will want to see the polls and see what his numbers geeks say, but he hasn't got a lot of time left.
However, in the end it's not up to Hilton.
Even worse for the Tories is the fact that the only people who will be really trued off UKIP by this are the white working class protest voters, who are now most likely to either not vote at all or go back to Labour, with some going back to the BNP. There goes the only beneficial impact the UKIP rise could have had for the Tories.
So...
Excellent update, Andy. I now know why you had Congdon as UKIP leader rather than Farage who would not have had the same place in Thatcher's affections.
It's not quite an endorsement for UKIP though it will doubtless be spun as such and might there be the odd late defection from the Conservative camp? As Mr Coulson adroitly opines, the impact of any Thatcherite endorsement of UKIP will be felt in some key demographics - I'd also note the impact on older voters who would remember her as PM.
If I recall one of Mike's tables, wasn't the turnout among the 65+ age group 76% in OTL with the Conservatives gaining 44% of those votes. The risk is there rather than among the younger ABC1 voters who are more anti-Labour than necessarily pro-UKIP.
When Cameron flopped and Clegg triumphed in the debate in my TL, I think I referred to the consternation in Tory HQ - I think for me the swearing was more implicit though my "source" was one step removed from the key players.
Excellent update, Andy. I now know why you had Congdon as UKIP leader rather than Farage who would not have had the same place in Thatcher's affections.
It's not quite an endorsement for UKIP though it will doubtless be spun as such and might there be the odd late defection from the Conservative camp? As Mr Coulson adroitly opines, the impact of any Thatcherite endorsement of UKIP will be felt in some key demographics - I'd also note the impact on older voters who would remember her as PM.
If I recall one of Mike's tables, wasn't the turnout among the 65+ age group 76% in OTL with the Conservatives gaining 44% of those votes. The risk is there rather than among the younger ABC1 voters who are more anti-Labour than necessarily pro-UKIP.
When Cameron flopped and Clegg triumphed in the debate in my TL, I think I referred to the consternation in Tory HQ - I think for me the swearing was more implicit though my "source" was one step removed from the key players.
So I'm guessing Cameron is complementing Japanese ritual suicide or Seppuku for short now that Thatcher has given her 'blessing' to UKIP.
This could either power UKIP or just drag the Tories down and give us PM Brown much to many people's horror.
This could either power UKIP or just drag the Tories down and give us PM Brown much to many people's horror.
I do wonder about whether this helps or hurts UKIP. It will hurt the Conservatives, sure, but that does not mean that it won't also hurt UKIP. I tend to think that it will help UKIP. Protest voters will really get their message across of there are UKIP MPs in the end unlike, say, casting a protest vote for the BNP.